This week, the market has bottomed out and rebounded, although the weekly close is still a negative line, but the daily line has rebounded after falling to the lower band of the descending channel line, and overall this week's market is once again in a sideways shock. Last week we said that the market may break through this descending channel in the form of a rebound in the future, and on Friday the market did attack the upper band of the channel line, but unfortunately there was a resistance to the downward trend. Next week, I estimate that it will hit the upper band of this channel line, because at present, the market has pulled out 6 consecutive yin, and if it falls again next week, there will be 7 consecutive yin, so I think the probability of rebound next week is relatively large.
The trend of the GEM this week is weaker than the broader market, and from the K-line, there has only been a positive line this week, and the rest of the trading days are falling. Last week, I said that 1735 points are more critical, breaking 1735 points means that the double head on the daily line is established, and there will be a rebound next week or pay attention to the gains and losses of 1735 points first. This week's hot spots are still relatively chaotic, and there are basically no sectors that have risen continuously. The market is in turmoil, the hot plate is changing relatively quickly, and the overall performance of the technology sector is still good. In addition, with the support of PetroChina, insurance and banking stocks, the broader market trend is relatively strong, and it will still depend on their performance next week.
What's new:
The central bank and other seven departments jointly issued the "Work Plan on Doing a Solid Job in Science and Technology Finance"
Seven departments, including the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration of Financial Regulation, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, recently jointly issued the "Work Plan on Doing a Solid Job in Science and Technology Finance". The Work Plan points out that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will establish a work linkage mechanism with relevant departments, strengthen information sharing and policy coordination, carry out in-depth special actions to improve the capacity of science and technology financial services, build a platform for experience exchange and discussion, promote the implementation of various measures in the Work Plan, make every effort to do a good job in science and technology finance, guide financial capital to invest early, small, long-term, and hard technology, and help achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement with high-quality scientific and technological financial services. Note: Judging from the projects involved in the issuance, they are mainly concentrated in small hard technology enterprises. The news of focusing on small and medium-sized technology enterprises, improving and adapting to the start-up period, and providing support in credit and insurance is good for small technology enterprises in the market.
The central bank's blockbuster meeting was held: "pay more attention to counter-cyclical adjustment" and "increase the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced"
A few days ago, the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the second quarter of 2024 was held in Beijing. Compared with the first quarter, the regular meeting continued to propose to "pay more attention to counter-cyclical adjustment" and "increase the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced", but pay more attention to the continuous effectiveness of the stock policy. Note: There are several points to draw our attention to in this meeting: First, whether the RRR cut predicted by the market will come. Second, it is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced. Promote a moderate recovery in prices and keep prices at a reasonable level. It shows that the central bank is dissatisfied with the actual price level and hopes to increase the CPI through price recovery. Third, fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, and conform to the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing.
Weekly review:
This week, the main board opened at 2,982 points, with a high of 2,990 points, a low of 2,933 points, and a close of 2,967 points. It fell by 30 points, or 1.03%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9,004 points, with a high of 9,030 points, a low of 8,797 points, and a close of 8,848 points. It fell by 216 points, or 2.38%. GEM opened at 1,745 points, with a high of 1,755 points, a low of 1,680 points, and a close of 1,683 points. It fell by 72 points, or 4.13%, and the smallest decline among the three major indexes this week was on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition, last week I said that the Beijing Stock Exchange Index should be closely watched next week, and the previous lowest point was at 702 points, which has been broken this week. Although the closing has recovered, it is still not optimistic overall, so it is difficult to say where the bottom of the Beijing Stock Exchange is.
Technical analysis of the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange:
The broader market continued to decline this week, but the decline has slowed. From the perspective of the K-line combination, the market has stepped out of the form commonly known as the multi-party cannon in the market. Whether the future is successful depends on the performance of the market next week. At the moment, the broader market is still in a descending channel, and closed above the middle of the descending channel on Friday. It is very likely that the market will break through the upper band of this descending channel next week and re-establish a new one. From the perspective of the moving average system, the market stood above the 5-day moving average on Friday, but did not rush to the 10-day moving average. Suppressed by the upper band of the descending channel, it fell back just one step away from the 10-day moving average. This week, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average are dead forked on the half-year line, the 30-day moving average is dead forked on the 60-day moving average and the annual line, and the 5-day moving average continues to go down. The J value of the daily KDJ is once again golden cross and slightly diverged upward, the opening between the daily MACD fast hook and the slow line is shrinking, and the green column pile is also shortening, and the overall rebound is not over.
Looking at the weekly line again, this week's market pulled out a small black candle with a long lower shadow. Judging from the previous trend, the market outlook will have to make up for this lower shadow line. At present, the market has fallen for 6 consecutive negative lines, and next week's fall will be 7 consecutive negatives, so I estimate that the possibility of a rebound in the market is relatively large. This week, the market has been running below the 30-week moving average, the 5-week moving average is dead fork of the 20-week moving average, the 30-week moving average is turning down, and the J value of the weekly KDJ has entered the oversold area, and the rebound is imminent. Weekly MACD fast and slow line last week's death fork, this week continued to diverge downward, the green column pile was released, and the probability of rebounding next week is still there, but the height is limited, and the entire mid-line adjustment has not ended.
GEM Technical Analysis:
This week, the GEM did not rebound after setting up a platform consolidation pattern, but went straight down. There have been 3 platform consolidations before, and then there have been small rebounds. This week is the 4th platform consolidation, but there is no rebound. Last week, I analyzed the trend of the technical market here, and said that the trend of the GEM will not be maintained forever. There have been clues this week, and the GEM has fallen below 1735 points, so the market outlook may be weaker. At present, the 5-day moving average is suppressing the rebound of the GEM, the 20-day moving average is a dead fork of the semi-annual line, and the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day and 30-day moving averages are all going down. In order to turn over the rebound of the gem in the future, we must first stand firm on the 5-day moving average, otherwise everything will not be discussed. From a purely technical point of view, the J value of the GEM KDJ has not yet entered the oversold area, and we cannot give a commitment to the bottom divergence under the premise that the J value has not been hooked upward. Although the GEM has hit a new low since the 1926-point adjustment, and the technical indicators have not hit a new low, it does not mean that the GEM will not continue to fall. The daily MACD fast and slow line continues to increase, the green column pile is released, the adjustment of the comprehensive gem is not over, and it may continue to enter the sideways shock stage next week.
Looking at the weekly line again, the weekly line shows that the GEM has broken down. The 5-week moving average continues to push downward, the 10-week and 30-week moving averages are turning down, and the 20-week moving average is still going up. The weekly MACD fast and slow line has just died, the green column pile has begun to rise, and the J value of the weekly KDJ has entered the oversold area, and the rebound is about to appear. However, because it is contrary to the trend of the MACD, even if there is a rebound, the height of the rebound is limited. On the whole, the medium-term adjustment trend of the GEM remains unchanged.
Editor's note
The column of the author of this article, Wang Hui, has been settled in "Yicai Knows", and the analysis of the previous market point interval and key focus sectors have been recorded as audio. For more financial knowledge, please click on the lower left corner to go to the "Yicai Knows" financial knowledge learning platform.
Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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