1. This week's market review:
This week, the weekly net outflow of northbound funds was 11.762 billion yuan, the market trend was weak, and the major indices all fell, with the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 relatively resistant, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 falling the most. In terms of commodity futures, commodity futures rose more and fell less this week. The non-ferrous sector and the energy and chemical sector have a strong trend. Lead and zinc futures, which are disrupted on the supply side, led the market this week. In the agricultural products sector, the peak season of sugar consumption is coming, the price trend is relatively strong, and the fundamentals of other varieties are bearish, and the trend is relatively weak. The black sector has rebounded slightly this week, but the overall performance is still weak.
2. Market operation strategy for next week:
Financial: The recent strong performance of the US dollar, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprises has fallen, and the policy needs to continue to increase. After the continuous adjustment of the index, there is a demand for an over-falling rebound, and the technology style is expected to continue to lead the rise, but the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen.
Black: The current price basically reflects the weak reality, the marginal change in demand is not large, the supply side is expected to be relatively stable from the perspective of molten iron, the market contradiction is not very prominent, and the momentum to continue to decline is not enough, but there is no good policy expectation, the rebound is also limited, and it is expected to be mainly shocked. On the building materials side, the glass cost side still has some support, and the policy also has certain expectations. After the price of soda ash fell, the maintenance of soda plants is expected to increase, and the acceptance of downstream spot is also improving, and the disk is expected to fluctuate.
Nonferrous metals and new energy: next week is expected to maintain a volatile trend, macro sentiment is expected to continue to adjust, and the fundamental supply side of the disturbance is expected to continue, the follow-up price support is expected to mainly come from the fundamentals, pay attention to the supply side of the production and inventory changes.
Energy and chemical industry: Crude oil is driven by geopolitics to rise when the demand side is not very supportive, pay attention to the progress of the situation, and be cautious and much lower. In addition to the recent news guidance of methanol and polyester chain, chemical products are generally still weaker than crude oil, methanol early short orders pay attention to leave, staple fiber and polyester chain are cautiously optimistic, if there is no further news downstream, you can pay attention to shortening fiber profits.
Agricultural products: After this week's rebound, sugar has returned to the previous shock range, pay attention to the pressure level near the 60-day moving average, and if a breakthrough is formed, it can be appropriately chased by the moving average system.
3. Economic calendar for next week
Author: Soochow Futures Research Institute
Editors: Zhang Shu, Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji