According to a Reuters report on June 26, Israeli Defense Minister Yoaf Galant issued a stern warning during his visit to the United States that if the border conflict with Allah turns into a regional war, the Israeli army will let Lebanon "return to the Stone Age." According to the BBC, a full-scale conflict could "be devastating to both sides". The United Nations also said it would be an "unimaginable catastrophe" that "could bring about the end of the world."
01
The risk of war is growing by the day
According to CNN, after the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October last year, Allah declared solidarity with Hamas, and then continued to launch attacks in northern Israel.
According to Al Jazeera, as of late June this year, the group had launched more than 2,100 attacks, firing more than 5,000 rockets, missiles and drones, forcing the evacuation of more than 60,000 Israeli residents and burning about 300,000 acres of forest and land.
At the same time, Israeli forces have launched hundreds of attacks on southern Lebanon, causing more than 90,000 locals to flee their homes. The Los Angeles Times estimates that about 600,000 acres of land in Lebanon have been destroyed by the fighting, causing economic losses of $7 million a day.
A city in Israel was set on fire by a rocket attack by Allah. Photo/Fox News
CNN pointed out that the conflict between Israel and Allah has been slowly escalating in the past nine months, and quantitative or eventually qualitative changes, and the two sides are now only one step away from a full-scale conflict.
The problem for Israel is how to stop Allah rocket attacks in the north and allow people to return home safely. The problem for Allah is that it is difficult to stand idly by and remain indifferent when its ally Hamas is attacked by Israeli forces.
According to foreign media analysis, both of them are in the predicament of "neither being able to give in but but also to retreat", the smell of gunpowder is getting stronger and stronger, and the means of retaliation and the intensity of the attack are also spiraling and intensifying. The longer this situation continues, the greater the risk of miscalculation on both sides leading to a "mismatch".
Canada is preparing to evacuate 45,000 nationals from Lebanon, and Germany, the Netherlands, Kuwait, Switzerland, Sweden and other countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens to "evacuate immediately or ban travel to Lebanon," according to the Middle East Observer website.
According to the British newspaper The Sun, the US amphibious assault ship USS Wasp, which carries Marines, has sailed to the eastern Mediterranean Sea in preparation for the evacuation of American citizens from the war zone.
02
Israeli troops or launch a blitzkrieg
Combing through foreign media reports, China News Network found that since October last year, Allah has lost more than 450 members, including at least 14 middle and senior commanders killed in air strikes, and another 3 people survived.
Among them, Allah's elite Radwan special forces are the key targets of the Israeli side, and from January to May this year, four commanders of the ministry, including the second-in-command, were killed. In addition, key members of Allah, who are responsible for technical weapons such as rockets, missiles, and drones, have also been repeatedly sniped by opponents.
Amadia Baram, a professor at the University of Haifa, said that if a full-scale war breaks out, Allah leader Nasrallah could be the next target.
In July 2006, Israeli artillery opened fire on Lebanese territory. Photo/AP
And this is precisely the important tactic of the Israeli army -- targeted killing. The aim is to precisely eliminate the top military and political leaders of Allah through surgical strikes to weaken and disintegrate the organization.
In addition to attacking the leading group and command centers, the Jerusalem Post said that once the war starts, the Israeli army may change its previous "step by step" approach and adopt the method of blitzkrieg warfare, devoting overwhelming forces in a short period of time to strive for a quick victory. Retired Israeli general Benny Gantz even claimed that Israel could completely destroy Allah forces in a matter of days.
According to foreign media reports, the Israeli army may first launch a large-scale air strike for 48 hours in a row, destroying the power grid and "plunging Lebanon into complete darkness." Then, under the cover of powerful firepower, a large number of ground troops were dispatched from multiple fronts deep into Lebanon territory, and paratroopers and special forces were sent to the rear of Allah by transport planes and helicopters.
According to the Times of Israel, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant and Finance Minister Smotrich have both stated that they will advance the defense line to the south bank of the Litani River and actually control this strategically important and resource-worthy Lebanese mother river.
03
How Allah will respond
Since the end of the Second Lebanese-Israeli War in 2006, Allah has been fighting for nearly 20 years and has accumulated a huge arsenal of rockets, missiles and drones. Not long ago, Nasrallah said that if forced to go to war, the group "will fight without restraint."
The Jewish Institute for National Security Studies, a U.S. think tank, reported that once the war is in full swing, Israel may face Allah's "unprecedented firepower" of 1,000 or even as many as 3,000 rockets per day.
The Jerusalem Post even paints a terrible picture: with Israeli air defenses crushed, skyscrapers in major cities like Tel Aviv "will collapse like the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York," causing massive casualties and heavy damage to vital infrastructure such as Ben-Gurion Airport, Haifa Port, and oil and gas rigs.
According to Reuters, the Israeli government is seeking to use the thousands of low-orbit satellites of Starlink to ensure the stability of official network data and information transmission in wartime, as a precautionary measure.
Allah armed forces conduct motorcycle drills. Photo/AP
In addition, after years of painstaking operation, Allah has built a network of hundreds of kilometers of tunnels in Lebanon that can be used for troop hiding, transportation, and mobile operations, and even covertly launch rockets and missiles.
In response to the targeted killings by Israeli forces, retired Lebanese general Khalil Helu said, "Israeli warplanes cannot threaten Allah leaders because they will be hiding underground." ”
Moreover, unlike Hamas in Gaza, which is tightly sealed by land, sea and air, Allah has relatively smooth access to foreign aid. According to the Associated Press, thousands of armed men from Iraq, Yemen and other countries are preparing to go to Lebanon to fight with the group.
Brown, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, pointed out that the Israeli army's attack on Allah "may trigger a wider conflict." According to the USA Today website, the island nation of Cyprus, across the sea from Lebanon, recently received a warning from Allah that if the Serbian side provides an offensive base to the Israeli army, it will be attacked.
The Near East Policy Institute, a US think tank, said that no matter how big the losses are, as long as Allah shows a "posture of resistance" against the use of force in defiance and dares to use force, and strives to survive, it is enough to declare itself a victor to the outside world.
In an interview with foreign media, Nabil, an 85-year-old resident of the Lebanese border and a grocery store owner, said that he had witnessed the land being hit by war again and again since it broke away from French colonial rule in 1943. ”
Source: @中国新闻网
Process Editor: U022