Last week's market review: weak shocks.
Last week, it hit a new low, but compared with the previous week's decline, the market has improved.
The U.S. dollar index strengthened as the U.S. business sentiment index exceeded expectations in June and the delayed effect of interest rate cuts emerged, which was not good for all assets except the U.S. dollar, including A-shares.
Last Monday's decline was a "worse worse" feedback.
Last Tuesday, A-shares tried to fight back, but in the end they fell short.
Afterwards, Zhuge put the pot on the head of "Cialis Stop".
The minority shareholders of Cialis blamed the decline in the broader market.
At the same time, OpenAI stopped the right to use APIs in non-supported countries and regions, resulting in a sharp drop in the concepts of chips, semiconductors, and Huawei.
"Before an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent" is a better way to explain the real cause.
See: "The Real Reason for the Fall of Cialis." Why are Fed rate cuts accompanied by major emergencies? 》
Last Wednesday, after major cities in the north adjusted the "minimum down payment ratio for the first home loan to 20% and the minimum interest rate to 3.5%", the market ushered in a long-lost "desperate situation".
It can be seen from this who is the protagonist of the A-share story.
The belated "response" did not carry out the "off, off, off" to the end.
Therefore, this kind of rise has long been doomed to the end - "easy to fall and difficult to rise".
Last Wednesday night, the offshore yuan quietly fell below the important level of 7.3 yuan, laying the foundation for the low opening of A-shares.
Industrial profit growth reported last Thursday slipped to "decimal places", pushing A-shares back to normal.
See: "The RMB Falls Below an Important Barrier, Why Are Financial Institutions "Not Short of Money"? "Weak follow-up"? 》
Last Friday, confidence seemed to return.
Cf. The Current Economic Situation. Oriental rating "3 grade up". Will Moody's and Fitch "change their tune"? 》
What to look forward to this week: Peripheral bias
1. U.S. inflation - favoritism
Last Friday night, the U.S. inflation data for May was in line with expectations year-on-year and month-on-month.
This data is regarded as an important milestone in the Fed's fight against inflation.
However, due to the fact that the data is too important, it has long been priced in the market, or it has long been overdrawn by the market.
In the absence of further data beats than expected, markets express themselves with silence or divergence.
Spring has come, and summer is not far away.
It's just that the "inverted spring cold" still makes this spring like winter.
See: "The United States is heavy, this is a "silent spring"! The Federal Reserve "sits still and does not mess up", and pours the spring cold》
Second, the economic outlook - bias
Last Sunday, the dedicated Tongge announced its economic outlook for June.
The previous value of the manufacturing PMI was 49.5, with an expectation of 49.5 and an announcement of 49.5.
In line with expectations, remain vulnerable.
The non-manufacturing new orders index was 46.9 in the previous month, announcing 46.7.
This is down 0.2 points from the previous month.
Bottom line: The economic recovery is "a long road".
3. Job Vacancies - Preference
This week, the focus on the other side of the strait is employment, and the number of job openings is the "late" vanguard.
On Tuesday night, the U.S. will release the number of JOLTs job openings (10,000) for May.
The number of vacancies represents the number of jobs that the enterprise can provide, and the decline in vacancies indicates the decline in the employment demand of the enterprise.
Job openings in April have slipped to pre-pandemic highs, and if they continue at this rate, the US will sound the employment alarm.
Fourth, ADP employment - bias
On Wednesday night, the US will release the change in ADP employment for June (small non-farm payrolls).
The existence of small non-farm is to lay a precursor for the next big non-farm data.
The previous value was 152,000, and the expectation was 163,000.
Job creation will pick up slightly, and if it is only a small fluctuation, the signal is not strong.
5. Fed Minutes - Neutral
In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting.
The "minutes" are different from the "statements" of interest rates three weeks ago.
A "statement" can be understood as a brief newsletter, while a "summary" is a detailed piece of information.
Since the "statement" and dot plot have already been published, the "minutes" usually do not have additional "highlights".
6. U.S. Employment-Preference
On Friday night, the US will release employment data for June.
This is the top priority of the week, and the capital markets will be anticipating the expectations of others around this data.
The seasonally adjusted value of non-farm payrolls was 272,000, and the expectation was 180,000.
Average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% and expected to be 3.9%.
The unemployment rate was 4% in the previous value and expected to be 4%.
The non-farm payrolls fell back to low levels, and hourly earnings fell to their lowest level since interest rate hikes.
Employment is weak, interest rate cuts are heating up, the dollar is weaker, and equity is rising.
The above is purely a personal emotional display, chatting and laughing.