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In the 300th anniversary of the union of England and Scotland, Scotland suddenly vowed to "leave the United Kingdom", and the news of the independence referendum has repeatedly appeared on the front pages of the news, while Britain is very jealous of Scotland's "Brexit", and has always refused to authorize the legitimacy of the independence referendum, and has repeatedly obstructed Scotland's plan to "leave the United Kingdom".
Why is the UK so nervous about Scotland's "Brexit"? Northern Ireland is bent on reunification with Ireland, and Scotland is leading the way in "leaving the UK", will it be the beginning of the disintegration of Britain?
(England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland form a confederation of island states – the United Kingdom)
1. Scotland and England have been in love and killed each other for 300 years
Originally an independent kingdom, Scotland's contact with England can be traced back to 2000 BC when the tin ore trade between the two countries began.
From 1000 BC to the 1st century BC, with the introduction of the Celtic civilization and the invasion of the Vikings, a number of forces operated in Scotland, and finally formed a stable settlement in Scotland, namely the Scottish aborigines known as Picts, the Scotts from Ireland, and the Vikings belonging to the Norse culture.
(Scottish-style clothes)
In the first half of the ninth century, Kenneth I unified the Picts and Scotts of Scotland, formally merging the regions of the two powers into a unified state, which became the Kingdom of Scotland, which lasted for more than 800 years.
During this period, European countries formed alliances or annexed each other, England and the Scottish royal family established a relationship of marriage in the change of regime, England has been trying to control Scotland openly and secretly, and the ambition of annexing Scotland is obvious, Scotland has launched two wars of independence against England, and it is difficult to preserve Scotland's identity as an independent country.
(Scottish skirt, also worn by men)
In 1567, the young James VI ascended the throne as the new King of Scotland, and 36 years later, Queen Elizabeth I of England died, leaving the queen unmarried and the throne of England passed to her nephew, James VI.
Scotland and England were ruled by the same king, forming a commonwealth, but still two separate states.
(Elizabeth I)
Until the throne passed to Queen Anne, in 1707, Queen Anne issued a joint act to merge the English Parliament and the Scottish Parliament, Scotland abandoned the Parliament and merged into the English Parliament, maintaining autonomy in the fields of law, religion and education, and the two countries merged into the Kingdom of Great Britain, from then on, England and Scotland officially became a country at the legal level.
Second, Scotland tossed over the years
Although it has been three centuries since the United Kingdom was founded, the call for independence in Scotland has never been broken, and the forces advocating "leaving the United Kingdom" have always existed in the Scottish government and the people.
After the end of the First World War, the Scottish National Party, which advocated independence, was formed, and the Scottish independence movement in the modern sense of the word was officially launched.
(Scottish referendum)
But the British government will not let Scottish independence go easily, and has been suppressing the flame of Scottish independence until Tony Blair becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and the situation is better. The Scottish-born British prime minister has taken some decentralization measures towards Scotland, which has given Scotland more autonomy.
The biggest of these was the restoration of Scotland's local councils in 1998, meaning that 300 years after the union in 1707, the Scots once again had the right to democratically elect officials to run Scotland.
(The 51st Prime Minister of the United Kingdom - Tony Blair)
In the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the national party that advocated Scottish independence won, which was also the first time that the "Brexit" forces won control of the Scottish Parliament.
Immediately after taking office, the National Party began preparations for Scottish independence. The leader of the National Party, Salmond, is ambitious to get basic rights such as taxes back from the central government in the United Kingdom, and to make Scotland a wealthy country on a par with Ireland and Norway by 2017.
On September 18, 2014, with the consent of British Prime Minister David Cameron, the Scottish independence referendum began in a big way, and the results of the referendum were announced the next day, and the results were greatly disappointed by the National Party - 55.8% of the Scottish people voted no to support Scottish independence, and the Brexit referendum ended in failure.
(Leader of the National Party and First Minister of Scotland, Salmond)
Salmond immediately announced his resignation, and then Scotland's largest city was exposed to voting fraud, many of the yes votes were thrown into the negative ballot box, and some staff even forged the yes votes.
Salmond accused the independence referendum of seemingly fair, but in fact the British government fooled the Scottish people, and claimed that "Scotland may declare its independence from the United Kingdom without a referendum".
The defeat of the first referendum did not stop Scotland from wanting independence.
On March 3, 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May made it clear that she would not give the green light to a Scottish independence referendum, and 10 days later, the First Minister of Scotland ignored the Prime Minister's position and formally called for a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018 or 2019.
(Nikolai Teskin)
In June 2022, plans for a second referendum in Scotland were put on the agenda. Nicolas Teskin, the First Minister of Scottish Local Government, announced that Scotland will plan to hold a second independence referendum in October 2023, but legitimacy is always a hurdle that cannot be bypassed.
Teskine's hardline stance on independence and her struggle for "legitimacy" is also tough, and she claims that if Britain insists that an independence referendum cannot be held without central authorization, then her National Party will issue an independence appeal in the 2024 British parliamentary election and force the independence referendum to be pushed.
3. "Brexit" takes the lead, or it may become the first step in the disintegration of Britain
Scotland and England have always been at odds with each other on the legality of the referendum, so why does Britain stick to Scotland?
Because once Scotland succeeds in "leaving the UK", I am afraid that the whole of the United Kingdom will disintegrate.
If Scotland successfully "leaves the UK", Britain will lose 32% of its territory, 8% of its population, two-thirds of its fishing industry, 50% of its animal husbandry, and tens of billions of pounds of tourism and whisky industry, and most fatally, Britain will lose its oil resources and control over the North Sea.
The North Sea oil field is a world-famous oil field production area, but also the lifeblood of the British control of the global crude oil futures market, after World War II, the British national strength is not as good as before, all rely on the economic value created by the North Sea oil fields to boost fiscal revenue, Britain was able to breathe a sigh of relief, it can be said that the North Sea oil fields are simply the blood of the United Kingdom.
(North Sea Oilfield Distribution Map)
However, more than 90% of the North Sea oil fields are actually in Scotland, and almost all of the tax revenue generated by the oil fields goes into the pockets of the British central government, and Scotland does not get any benefits. Nowadays, Britain itself is going downhill, and it is difficult to fly to Scotland, and Scotland guards the cash cow of the North Sea oil fields, so it naturally moves the mind of flying solo.
If Scotland becomes an independent sovereign state, then if the Scottish national boundary is established according to the fishing demarcation line, Scotland will take 95% of the oil fields and 58% of the gas fields in the North Sea from the United Kingdom, and enjoy this huge wealth for itself, and no longer have to look at the face of the United Kingdom to live.
Moreover, because Britain has control over the North Sea, it has become a good helper for the United States to contain Europe, if Britain's control over the North Sea is greatly reduced, will the United States continue to treat this ally?
(Northern Ireland's first Chief Minister to support the unity of Ireland – Michelle O'Neill)
What makes Britain even more anxious is that it is not only Scotland who wants to "leave the UK" in the UK, and the newly appointed chief minister of Northern Ireland, O'Neill, announced as soon as he took office: a referendum on the reunification of Northern Ireland and Ireland will be held within ten years.
If Scotland succeeds in "leaving the United Kingdom", it will undoubtedly be the best precedent for Northern Ireland, just like the first snowflakes in an avalanche, the collapse behind it will be irreversible, and Britain will only be left with England and Wales, which will follow England to eat the royal food, and the former glory of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will no longer exist.
The four member states of the United Kingdom, Wales has not yet made waves, and Northern Ireland is waiting for Scotland to take the lead, so what will be the next step in the first step of the disintegration of the United Kingdom - Scotland's road to independence?
Resources
[1] The Struggle of Practical Interests: The Historical Dark Line of the Scottish Referendum. People's Forum, Academic Frontiers.2015-05-06
[2] Scotland is planning to hold a second independence referendum next autumn. Xinhua News Agency.2022-06-29
[3] North Sea oil fields became key to Scottish independence referendum.2014-03-03