2024 will be an election year for many countries, with the U.S. election being particularly eye-catching.
On the 27th local time, Trump and Biden had the first round of TV debates, Biden's unfluent, unclear, and often forgotten words in this debate were quite embarrassing, Trump simply proudly declared his victory, Biden's ability to perform his duties was questioned again, and Democrats began to have the idea of replacing Biden as another candidate, and the "New York Times" blatantly asked Biden to withdraw from the election.
It is uncertain whether the Democratic Party will actually change candidates, Biden has no intention of withdrawing from the election, Biden is still actively preparing for the election, and is busy reassuring voters, claiming that he is not only confident of defeating Trump, but also capable of being president for another four years.
For American voters, the presidential candidate's policy proposition is the primary concern, but the personal qualities of the presidential candidate are also crucial, which is also an important basis for voters to vote. Therefore, the next election process, especially Biden's performance in the next election process, is bound to make the Democrats particularly worried.
However, a wave of unevenness has arisen again and again, and just as the Biden team is worried about the US election, France has also begun the National Assembly election that the Biden team has to worry about.
According to CCTV News, on June 30, local time, the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election began, and Macron's "political gamble" finally entered a "thrilling stage".
It is reported that due to the crushing defeat of Macron's French ruling party in the European Parliament elections, Macron simply dissolved the National Assembly on June 9 and held an early National Assembly election. It is difficult to predict what the outcome of this election will be, but for Macron, the prospects for the French National Assembly election are not promising.
According to a report on the 30th, on June 28, the French Institute of Public Opinion released a poll, and the French far-right party National Alliance once again led the poll and will get 36.5% of the votes, and the left-wing coalition also got 29%, while Macron's ruling party only got 29%, which is neither as far as the far right nor as good as the left-wing coalition.
If the results of this National Assembly election are very different from the polls, Macron's situation will be extremely dangerous, which means that Macron may become a "lame duck" next. Of course, Macron can also choose to govern in coalition with the left-wing coalition, not to mention whether Macron can unite with the left-wing coalition, even if the coalition is successful, Macron's next governance efficiency is bound to be greatly reduced.
However, the above scenarios are not intended to be seen by the Biden team. On the issue of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the position of the Biden team has basically not changed, the Biden administration insists on assisting Ukraine to contain Russia, and at the same time hopes that Europe will increase its investment in aiding Ukraine to resist Russia, and it is best for European countries to take the lead, so that the United States can withdraw from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and focus more energy and attention on the Asia-Pacific region.
In 2024, Macron's performance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is obviously more in line with the expectations of the United States, and Macron has become more and more hawkish on Russia, repeatedly saying that France will send troops to Ukraine. And once Macron suffers a crushing defeat in this National Assembly election, France's aid policy to Ukraine will inevitably be affected.
France's far-right National Alliance is not interested in participating in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and firmly opposes France's involvement in the conflict, and opposes France's military deployment and deployment of long-range missiles to Ukraine. If the National Alliance has an advantage in the National Assembly, in the view of the Biden team, France is only afraid that it will fall into endless "political internal friction", France's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be more vacillating, and Europe's differences in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may also continue to intensify due to France's vacillation.