Zhou Hongyi's "heart meat", Nezha's car is difficult to survive the "life and death disaster"

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2024-07-01 07:49Tiger Sniff APP official account

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01Nezha Automobile officially submitted an application for listing on the main board of Hong Kong and became Zhou Hongyi's "heart".

In 022023, Nezha Automobile sales ranked first among the new forces, with a total of 333,000 deliveries.

03However, Nezha Automobile is still in a loss-making state, and its R&D investment is relatively low.

04In order to increase sales, Nezha Automobile launched a new platform "Shanhai Platform", including two versions: extended range and pure electric version.

05 On the other hand, Nezha Automobile has an active layout in overseas markets, with 17,000 overseas deliveries in 2023, accounting for 13.7% of total sales.

Technical support is provided by Tencent Hybrid Model

作者｜Eastland

Header image: Visual China

On May 26, 2024, "Hezhong New Energy" (the parent company of Nezha Automobile) officially submitted an application for listing on the main board of Hong Kong.

Back then, NIO (September 2018), Ideal (July 2020), and Xiaopeng (August 2020) were listed successively, and "Wei Xiaoli" was once warmly sought after.

In September 2022, Leapmotor (HK: 09863) IPO on the main board of Hong Kong was tragically broken. On June 28, 2024, the closing price of Leapmotor was HK$26.8, which was much lower than the issue price (HK$48).

In May 2024, Zeekr (NYSE:ZK) was listed on the New York Stock Exchange with an issue price of $21. The stock price surged as high as $32.24 before retreating, closing at $19.79 on June 28.

Geely Holding is one of the Chinese companies with the strongest awareness and ability of capital operation. Taking ZEEKR as an example, deliveries began in March and October 2021, and an IPO application was submitted to the SEC in December 2022.

On May 10, 2024 (Friday), ZEEKR has just been listed; On May 13 (Monday), Cao Cao's second version of the IPO application appeared on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Li Shufu's listed companies are about to reach 10!

In contrast, Nezha is a late bloomer - as Zhou Hongyi's "heart", it was established in October 2014; In 2022, the sales volume will rank first among the new forces; By the end of 2023, a total of 333,000 units had been delivered, and despite rumors of listing, the IPO application was not officially submitted until May 2024.

Zero run is a bit reluctant, ZEEKR has achieved an IPO with superb capital operation capabilities, and there are certain variables whether Nezha can successfully close the scene.

The most embarrassing is GAC's Aion. Sales in 2023 will reach 480,000 units, ranking third after BYD and Tesla. However, in the first five months of 2024, Aion's sales volume was only 100,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.7%, and the best time to sprint to market has been missed.

The "marathon closing time" is getting closer, and Aion's time is running out.

Well architected

The architecture of Nezha Automobile is very good, which is mainly reflected in two aspects:

First, qualifications. In 2017, it was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission for the "Electric Passenger Vehicle Construction Project"; In 2018, it was awarded the production qualification by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The second is the self-operated production base. By the end of 2023, Nezha's self-operated plant in Tongxiang, Zhejiang Province, will have a maximum production capacity of 160,000 units per year.

Third, the R&D platform and model layout have rules and regulations.

In June, the Nezha brand was released, and the first model - Nezha N01 was delivered within the year; In 2020, deliveries of the second and third models, Nezha U and Nezha V, will begin.

Nezha V, later upgraded to the "Nezha AYA series small pure electric SUV", is mainly positioned in overseas markets.

Nezha U, which later developed into the "Nezha X series compact pure electric SUV".

Both of the above series are based on the "Yunhe Platform" (pure electric).

In 2022, the first sports coupe - Nezha S will be delivered; In 2023, the electric sports car - Nezha GT will be delivered; In 2024, the mid-size SUV - Nezha L will be delivered, with two versions of extended range and pure electric power.

The above three models are based on the "Shanhai Platform". The new platform is compatible with pure electric vehicles and extended range; At the same time, it supports front-wheel drive/rear-wheel drive/four-wheel drive; Provide solutions such as integrated chassis, integrated die-casting, 800-volt high-voltage architecture, and AI large model.

In 2022, Nezha launched the "Haozhi Technology Platform", including Haozhi Supercomputing, Haozhi Electric Drive and Haozhi Range Extension.

In addition, Nezha is also effectively carrying out a global layout. In 2023, 17,000 units will be delivered overseas, accounting for 13.7% of total sales.

In March and May 2024, the Thailand plant and the Indonesia plant will start operations successively. Construction of the Malaysian plant (designed capacity of 15,000 units/year) has already begun, and production is expected to start in early 2025.

Most of the stars in the new car-making forces have their own weaknesses: some do not have their own production bases; Most of them do not have both pure electric and extended range power schemes; Those who want to save money only develop SUVs or sedans; The main measure of globalization is participation in international motor shows......

"Master of Words"

1) Distant view is among the best

According to the investment documents:

In 2023, more than 50,000 Nezha AYA series will be delivered; Among them, Nezha AYA sold 35,000 units, ranking first in pure electric small SUVs, in addition, Nezha AYA series also won the sales championship of small pure electric vehicles in Southeast Asia, with a market share of 52%;

In 2023, nearly 47,000 units of the Nezha X series will be delivered, ranking fourth in China's compact pure electric SUV market.

In 2023, more than 20,000 units of the Nezha S will be delivered, ranking fourth among China's large-scale new energy coupes;

The Nezha GT, launched in May 2023, delivered 7,092 units throughout the year, ranking first among new energy sports cars.

The sales list of new energy vehicles is flying all over the sky, and it has become the norm for compilers to use the term "regulation" of the ranking of target companies. And let Nezha "become a god" is this table in the poster file:

In 2023, Nezha will deliver 124,000 vehicles, ranking no in the top ten. However, the phrase of only producing new energy passenger vehicles has made many strong people fall off the list!

Geely, for example, will sell nearly 1.69 million units in 2023. Among them, 490,000 new energy vehicles, accounting for less than 30%, do not meet the "only production of new energy vehicles", Geely is "gone". Similarly, SAIC, Great Wall, and Changan, as long as they sell a fuel car, don't want to be on the list.

BYD has long ceased production of fuel vehicles, but sold 11,511 commercial vehicles. It does not meet the "production of passenger cars only" and can only be out. If there is a global list, Tesla will not be on the list, because pickup trucks are not passenger cars. 

is only 9 words, as strong as BYD and Tesla, which were rejected from the list, and can be described as a "master of words".

2) Look close at the green and yellow

Yunhe platform

In 2022, the sales volume of the Yunhe platform reached its peak: 98,000 units of the AYA series and 45,000 units of the X series, with a total of 143,000 units sold on the platform.

In 2023, sales of the AYA series will plummet by 49% to 50,000 units; X Series sales edged up 2.9% to 47,000 units, with total platform sales of 97,000 units, down 32.5% y/y.

Mountain and sea platform

In November 2021, Nezha launched the Shanhai platform, which is positioned as a highly intelligent, high-safety, high-expansion, and environment-friendly intelligent vehicle platform.

However, the research and development of Shanhai platform models is progressing slowly, and it will still be unable to "take the lead" by 2023:

The first launch of the Shanhai platform is Nezha S. 1,093 units delivered in 2022; 20,000 units in 2023;

In May 2023, deliveries of the Nezha GT will begin, with annual sales of 7,092 units;

In 2023, the sales volume of Yunhe platform models will decrease by 47,000 units, while the Shanhai platform will contribute 26,000 units, and the total sales volume will decrease from 144,000 units in 2022 to 124,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%.

Regarding the decline in sales in 2023, CEO Daniel Zhang summarized five points: there is no good connection between new and old products when switching, and the rhythm is chaotic; overpriced new products; Significant reductions in production of loss-making products; The mode of transmission is old; The marketing headquarters is centralized but the management is weak.

"The new product is overpriced" refers to Nezha S; The loss-making products that have significantly reduced production refer to the Nezha AYA series.

From January to May 2024, Nezha sold 43,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%.

In May 2024, deliveries of the Nezha L will begin, including two versions of pure electric vehicle (BEV) and extended range electric (REEV). The latter is the first product of "Haozhi Range Extension", with a fuel consumption of about 4.85 liters per kilometer and a range of about 1200 kilometers when fully fueled.

Range extension (and plug-in hybrid) is despised because of the low technical threshold, the ideal is to make car companies realize that this technical route is low-cost, eliminate range anxiety, replace large batteries with small batteries, and save money to buy large sofas, which can make consumers flock to it.

Nowadays, there are ideals, Huawei (Wenjie, AVATAR), and Deep Blue in the extended range track. Next to the track, there is BYD's fifth-generation DM-i. Nezha's range extension technology is not inferior to ideal, enough to fight with opponents inside and outside the track.

According to public data, from April 22 to May 26, the cumulative orders exceeded 30,000. Among them, 95% of users chose the 310 flash charge red-clothed version with a guide price of 160,000 yuan (360 is the second largest shareholder of Nezha, which shows the appeal of the red-clothed leader).

In terms of deliveries, it is said that the production capacity of Nezha L climbed to 400 units per day (double shifts) in mid-June.

The success of Nezha's IPO, and even whether it can survive healthily, is tied to the sales of Nezha L.

R&D investment

1) There is no profit for the time being

Nezha Automobile started deliveries earlier than Wei Xiaoli, but it still sells one at a loss (with a negative gross profit).

In 2021, Nezha Automobile's gross sales loss will be 1.39 billion yuan, the average price of a single car will be 71,000 yuan, and the loss will be 22,000 yuan per car sold;

In 2022, Nezha's gross loss on sales will increase to 1.96 billion, with an average price of 84,000 yuan per vehicle, and a loss of 14,000 yuan for each vehicle sold;

In 2023, the gross sales loss of Nezha Automobile will reach 2.32 billion yuan, the average price of a single car will increase to 109,000 yuan, and the loss per car sold will increase to 22,000 yuan.

Nezha Automobile has not yet reached the time when it can talk about profitability, and the top priority is to survive.

2) You can't make money, you only save money

In the case of negative gross profits, expenses are particularly heavy for businesses.

In 2023, Nezha's sales expenses, administrative expenses, and R&D expenses will be 1.92 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.6 billion respectively, totaling 4.68 billion. Due to the small scale of sales, several expenses with low amounts accounted for 34.5% of revenue.

If you can't make money, try to save money, and Nezha's cost control is relatively in place.

Other money can be saved, but R&D investment cannot be saved. In the past three years, Nezha has spent a total of 3 billion R&D expenses, which is too low.

Nezha has the technology accumulation of previous years, hasn't Zeekrypton accumulated? Neither does BYD? (Note: ZEEKR's R&D expenses in H1 in 2023 will be 3.2 billion, and BYD's R&D expenses in Q1 in 2024 will be 10.6 billion).

Nezha has a good frame, but every cell of its body is deficient in nutrients. Only when the new models sell well and the listing and financing go smoothly can the physique be vigorous.

Nezha has reached the threshold of life and death.

*The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice

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