I believe everyone still remembers the industrial revolution that occurred in the 60s of the 18th century, and it is precisely because of this move that human civilization has reached a new level and opened a new era.
Such achievements are not only the result of human ingenuity, but also closely related to the abundance of oil resources.
Whether in the past or now, as long as industrial production is inseparable from oil, its importance can be imagined.
However, oil is a non-renewable resource, simply put, it is to use a little less, as an important mineral resource that will affect human survival, its reserves naturally attract attention.
In the early years, the theory of oil depletion was very popular, but now it has not moved. Was this a hoax from start to finish? Where exactly does oil come from?
1. The theory of oil depletion has swept the world
Recently, oil prices have risen again. Car owners are actively discussing this issue, and some people are even panicking, believing that the price of oil is now rising because there may not be enough oil.
The idea of oil depletion is not new, it can be traced back to the last century, and it was the United States that first proposed this theory.
In 1914, the U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted that U.S. oil reserves would last for up to 10 years, that is, until 1924.
As soon as this prediction was made, it instantly caused panic in society. In the past 10 years, people have even lived in fear. However, until 1926, oil reserves were not depleted as expected.
The relevant departments felt that they were slapped in the face, so they gave a new forecast, saying that the remaining oil volume could not be supplied for a long time, and it could probably last for 7 years. Obviously, this prediction did not come true.
There is a famous geologist in the United States, Hubbard, who once predicted in 1953 that the peak of oil production in the United States would come in the 70s of the last century, and then gradually decline, and oil would gradually deplete.
Under the influence of Hubbert's prediction, an organization called the "Peak Oil Research Society" appeared. The group's members believed in this prophecy and used it to promote the theory of oil depletion.
It was a coincidence that oil production in the United States did peak in 1970 and has been declining ever since.
In this way, Hubbard's prediction has become more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and many people feel that this is substantial evidence, and it will not be long before oil will run out in the future.
Since Hubbard's prediction of peak oil came true, Campbell, a geologist from Ireland, has been immersed in the study of peak oil theory, and in 1998 he published a paper entitled "The End of Cheap Oil".
According to the paper, global oil production peaks in 2003 and then declines and oil resources are gradually depleted.
However, Campbell was not as fortunate as Hubbert, and the peak he predicted did not occur in 2003.
Because in the 10 years from 1997 to 2007, the world's oil reserves and production have continued to rise, with the growth rate of reserves being 1.47% and production increasing by 1.22%.
At that time, too many scholars and scientists gave the theory of oil depletion, which caused panic around the world.
In order to make its impact more comprehensive, the Club of Rome has even published a study entitled "The Limits to Growth", which states that all oil resources will be depleted by 1990 and even calls for people to reduce their use.
Friendly reminder: Because the characters in this article are long, there may be an "ad unlock mode" in the article, but fortunately, in the new policy of the platform, ad unlocking is free, you only need to read it to continue reading, thank you for the officials, and the platform.
Although each person predicts a different time, and there are some differences in the specific theories given, they all come to the core, that is, oil will eventually run out of oil at some point.
It's just that these theories basically appeared in the last century, and after entering this century, the voices about oil depletion have become less and less, and now they are almost inaudible.
Some people speculate that the so-called theory of oil depletion is simply a shocking hoax by Western countries, after all, it was the scholars or governments of Western countries who gave such theories in the first place.
Second, whether the theory of oil depletion is a hoax or not
There have been countless theories of oil depletion in the last century, and the above are just a few.
These remarks have a common characteristic, that is, they are always categorical when they make predictions, but in the end, they will be slapped in the face, and it is nonsense to summarize it in one word.
In the last century, the economy was not developed enough, people had few ways to understand oil information, and coupled with the constraints of ideological concepts, many people were convinced of these theories put forward by experts and scholars.
This gives some people the confidence to talk nonsense, so there are all kinds of face-slapping remarks.
Since the beginning of the new century, science and technology have continued to develop, and people have more ways to understand the information about oil, and there is a strong skepticism about those statements in the past.
In today's society, the world's oil reserves are publicly counted every year, and people have a more detailed understanding of the state of oil.
It is even more difficult to make a statement about the depletion of oil in a single-minded way, and even if you have the courage, no one will believe it, and you will even be criticized by the whole world.
Although the predictions of past scholars have not come true, the day when the oil will run out will theoretically come.
Because oil is a non-renewable resource, as long as there is continuous consumption, the reserves of oil will be less and less.
In fact, the previous scholars who hyped the theory of oil depletion were also based on this, but the prediction time was not accurate, so they made one joke after another, which became what people called "scams".
Maybe one day, the oil resources will really be completely depleted, but no one really knows when that day will come. For so many years, people have never stopped exploring and developing oil resources, and the proven oil reserves are not the same at different stages, and those statements about oil depletion are actually based on the proven oil reserves at that time.
Nowadays, the means of detecting the location of oil are becoming more sophisticated, the technology of extraction is also improving, and more and more oil is being discovered around the world, and no one dares to speak freely about oil depletion.
Because our current proven oil reserves do not represent the real oil reserves, and may even be just the tip of the iceberg, there are still many unknown oil fields that have not been discovered by humans.
If the oil reserves are not exact, all the talk that oil will be depleted at some point will hardly hold water.
In fact, this truth is not only understood now, but should have been understood when the theory of oil depletion prevailed, and it is precisely because of this that people feel that the Western countries at that time may have harbored evil intentions.
By disturbing people's minds and stirring up the world by talking about oil depletion, people are worried about the future of oil, and thus promoting the rise of oil prices.
Someone will benefit from the rise in oil prices, and perhaps those beneficiaries are behind the inappropriate rhetoric.
3. The formation of oil
Although oil is an extremely important mineral resource and plays a vital role in people's daily life and production, there is no clear answer to the formation of oil, and there are two theories that have won the hearts of the people.
The first is the theory of biological origins, which holds that the formation of oil is actually the corpse of living things, including marine animals and plants in ancient times, and even plankton, bacteria, etc. When they die, their bodies are buried deep in the ground and gradually oxidized and decomposed, turning into sediment.
As time passes, these sediments are buried deeper and deeper, and under the action of high geological temperatures and pressures, they are catalytically decomposed, thus forming oil.
It's just that the process is relatively long, and it can take tens of thousands, millions, or even hundreds of millions of years.
If it is true that the corpse of living organisms has evolved over a long period of time to form oil, then oil is a real non-renewable resource, and as long as human beings continue to exploit and use it, it will one day be depleted.
In order to confirm the veracity of this statement, scientists have also conducted intensive research, and many scientists believe that the oil resources are not derived from animal carcasses.
To take a simple example, there are now more than 200 billion tons of proven oil reserves.
To form so much oil, at least 700 billion dinosaurs would be needed, and that many dinosaurs would have to be extinct all at once and buried deep at the same time.
Obviously, this is not the case, and although the earth has undergone countless geological movements, none of them can achieve this goal.
Another theory is mantle-derived oil and gas theory, which means that oil comes from the earth's mantle and is not made from animal carcasses.
According to this theory, oil is actually a hydrocarbon fluid that comes from the Earth's mantle more than 100 kilometers. In the process of continuous movement, they will enter the earth's crust and sedimentary layers, and gradually form oil and gas reservoirs.
In fact, a lot of important evidence has been presented for this idea, such as the petroleum hydrocarbons in the peridotite of the mantle.
Petroleum hydrocarbons in oil and gas reservoirs are characterized by a number of characteristics, such as high methane content and stable hydrocarbon content, which are similar to petroleum hydrocarbons in mantle peridotite.
Not only that, scientists have also done many high-pressure synthesis experiments, as well as chemical thermodynamic calculations, and have come to the conclusion that the hydrocarbon fluids in the deep earth's leylines are quite abundant, which has long exceeded the currently known fossil fuel resources.
On the continents alone, 10 billion tonnes of hydrocarbon fluid are released from the Earth's mantle each year, which is 10 times the annual oil consumption.
Although it is only individual data, it reflects that there are a large number of hydrocarbon resources in the interior of the earth, which makes the mantle source oil and gas theory more fully supported by evidence.
If this theory is true, it means that the available oil resources in the future are quite abundant and should not be depleted.
It's just that in order to fully confirm this theory, more practical verification and data analysis are needed.
Although the current theory of oil depletion has basically disappeared, oil resources are closely related to our lives, and no matter which theory it is, we should treat it with a cautious attitude and not blindly follow and believe it.
Resources:
1. The answer is here2023-01-11 "Why don't you mention "oil depletion" now? Is the theory of oil depletion really a big hoax? 》
2. Senluo Wanxiang Official 2023-09-25 "Is the Oil Depletion Theory a Lie?" Humanity may not run out of oil at all, but it is increasing every year"
3. The secret agent in the box2021-12-01 "Oil can still be used for 500 million years? Why do some experts think that the theory of oil depletion is a hoax to raise prices? 》