Introduction to the report
Respond to new challenges and opportunities
The Future of Trade 2024 is the fifth edition of the flagship biennial report published by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC). In these rapidly changing times, we take a deep dive into the key factors shaping the global trade landscape. New political and economic alliances are emerging, and rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts are transforming trade networks and accelerating the trend towards regionalization. United States and China are engaged in a "chip war" with both sides vying for leadership in the semiconductor industry. In addition, changes that will affect future generations, such as the rise of artificial intelligence and the pursuit of net-zero carbon emissions, are redefining the global trade landscape, with the largest redeployment of capital in history underway and transforming business operations.
This report explores key issues shaping the future of trade, including geopolitical sustainability, technology and finance, and how these forces will reshape various aspects of trade. We also review the projections presented in our previous report, which were prepared as global merchandise trade recovers from the COVID-19 shutdown, and explore how trade has evolved from a global crisis that continues to impact government policy and consumer behavior.
The past few years have shown how a series of crises have disrupted the global economy. Global trade is complicated by conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, macroeconomic challenges such as slowing growth and inflation, and ongoing trade tensions between United States and China.
There will definitely be more changes in 2024. With about 80 elections this year, covering nearly half of the world's population, these elections could change the domestic and foreign policies of some countries, leading to a rise in economic nationalism and trade protectionism. The EU has entered a transition phase of its CBAM, and the different multilateral and national green policies around the world have demonstrated mixed national commitment to this, a development that could change the course of trade and further intensify the trend of regionalization between high-carbon producers and greener producers. At the same time, more and more businesses are incorporating AI and related technologies into their business operations to improve efficiency and trade inclusivity. However, businesses are making this major shift in the face of unclear regulations and data standards.
This situation provides fertile ground for new trade barriers. In driving economic growth, companies need to be vigilant about the impact that policy decisions, market forces and trends can have on their production, operations and supply chains.
However, there will also be fruitful opportunities for global trade. Moving closer to regionalized and bloc trade will open up new trade relations and corridors. The increase in Friendly Shore outsourcing and the alignment of partnerships with China will diversify supply chains and boost manufacturing in emerging markets. There are signs that global inflation and interest rates may converge, so business confidence and consumer purchasing power are expected to improve.
At the same time, the twin forces of technology and sustainable development offer the greatest opportunity to improve trade resilience, which will drive rapid growth in trade in digital services and technology, as well as the production of environmentally friendly products, and sometimes in tandem, driving demand for key commodities and the emergence of new trade hubs and facilitation institutions. The spread of artificial intelligence (AI) has provided the impetus for these developments.
We are at the tipping point of major change, with a number of factors threatening to reshape the global trade landscape. Businesses and policymakers must have up-to-date information, understand the key factors that make an impact, and have the tools to safeguard operational, trade and economic performance.
The Future of Trade 2024 brings together insights from more than 150 industry experts from nine global roundtables to explore the dynamic evolution of international trade and forecast trends over the next two years and beyond.
Table of Contents of Reports
introduction
Summary of the report
Chapter I
The future of trade
Section 1: Global Trade Prospects
Session 2: The Transformative Power of Trade
Section 3: Commodity Development and the DMCC Merchandise Trade Index 2024
Session 4: Drivers and Influencing Factors of Trade Resilience
Key takeaways and recommendations
bibliography
Chapter II
The geopolitics of trade
Session 1: Regionalization and redrawing the trade structure
Section 2: Instability caused by conflict and tension
Session 3: Ensuring the Resilience of Global Supply Chains
Session 4: The Future of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Key takeaways and recommendations
Chapter 2 Bibliography
Chapter III
The rise of artificial intelligence
Section 1: Technologies that will change trade
Session 2: Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Technology
Session 3: Digital Trade Agreements and the Free Flow of Data
Session 4: The Impact of Digitalization and DMCC's 2024 Industry Digitalization Index
Key takeaways and recommendations
Chapter 3 References
Chapter IV
Sustainability and the future of trade
Session 1: How Climate Policy Transforms Global Trade
Session 2: Carbon pricing changes business models
Section III: The relationship between trade, sustainable development and technology
Section 4: Integrating climate and environment into trade agreements
Key takeaways and recommendations
Chapter 4 References
[See the end of the article for how to receive the report]
—
How to claim the full version
The report consists of 117 pages
If you find this material helpful
I would like to get the full digital version of the content reference study
You can follow + comment + retweet
Then DM me: report