At present, there are different accounts as to whether Iran notified United States before the attack on Israel: Iran's representative office to the United Nations said that Tehran did not notify Washington in advance, but warned Washington after the attack; Reuters reported that senior Iran officials revealed that Tehran had warned Washington through diplomatic channels "shortly before the attack."
Regardless of whether Tehran notified Washington before the attack, but judging from the current situation, the military of Israel and United States is ready to intercept, "at least half of Iran's ballistic missiles have been shot down", as for those Iran ballistic missiles that were not intercepted, how many targets were hit, whether they hit Israel military bases or even nuclear facilities, it is unclear.
According to the official version of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, the purpose of this round of large-scale ballistic missile attacks on Israel is to avenge former Hamas leader Haniyeh, former Allah leader Nasrallah, and Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps general Abbas · Nirfrushan, among others. However, the New York Times report shows that there are complex political factors behind this round of attacks, especially within Iran.
According to the New York Times, after Hamas and other Iran proxy forces were severely damaged by Israel and Nasrallah and others were killed, after many days of fierce debates, Iran's hardliners, dominated by the Revolutionary Guards, overwhelmed Iran's President Pezeshkian, who called for restraint, and successfully persuaded Iran's supreme revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that a massive ballistic missile attack on Israel became "the only option to show Iran's power."
Iran Supreme Revolutionary Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to preside over this Friday service in Tehran, but under normal circumstances, due to factors such as his physical condition, Khamenei does not preside over this event, and only presides over Friday services in exceptional circumstances related to Iran national security, the last time Khamenei did so was in 2020, when Qassem ·Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force of the Iran Revolutionary Guards, was killed by order of then-United States President Donald Trump.
Ali · Waz, head of Iran affairs at the International Crisis Group, said that Israel has made great achievements in fighting Iran's proxy groups in the past few days, and Tehran's silence is seen as weak, especially in the eyes of Iran proxy groups, and a large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel will make Iran's image tough again and restore the confidence of members of the "Axis of Resistance";
However, Ali · Waz also said that Tehran's decision is likely to backfire, and a massive missile attack on Israel "will provide an excuse for Israel to fight back against Iran, especially now that Allah is in danger and Iran is exposed to risks", "Iran's attack on Israel shows that they believe that the cost of inaction is greater than the risk of Israel's action." ”
Things also seem to be moving in the direction that · Watts expected. Despite Iran's President Pezeshkian's declaration that "we have the right to defend ourselves"; Iran's mission to the United Nations also said that the attack was over, and "advised" Israel not to resist, and that countries that support Israel should "draw a line" with it; Iran Revolutionary Guards threatened Israel "devastating attack" if Israel they responded to the attack. However, Israel and its supporters apparently did not heed Iran's advice and were ready to retaliate.
After the Iran ballistic missile strike, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement: "Iran made a big mistake tonight – they will pay for it, and the Iran government does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and take revenge on our enemies." We will stick to our principle: whoever attacks us, we will fight back against them. ”
Israel Defense Minister Gallant said: "Iran has not learned its lesson: those who attacked Israel have paid a high price"; Former Israel Prime Minister Bennett declared that action must be taken to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
The Israel Defense Forces also made a statement, with Israel's Army Chief of Staff Khalevi saying that Israel would "choose the right moment" to retaliate against Iran and demonstrate "amazing offensive capabilities"; Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari said: "The Iran attack is a serious and dangerous escalation. At one's own risk...... We will respond anywhere, at any time, in any way, according to the instructions of the Israel government", and "tonight we will attack the entire Middle East (Iran and its proxy organizations)".