1. Amazing data on the daily turnover and net outflow of domestic capital
Friends, on October 8, 2024, there was extremely shocking data in the A-share market. The total turnover of the A-share market is close to 3.5 trillion yuan, which is a record for historical turnover.
At the same time, the net outflow of domestic capital was nearly 220 billion yuan, which is also a record high in a single day. These two sets of data are like two extremes, one is the surging inflow of funds, and the other is the crazy escape of funds, what kind of story is hidden behind this?
Second, the in-depth analysis of the market opening high and moving low
(1) The impact of the sharp decline in the A50 index and the Hong Kong stock market
During the National Day holiday, the A50 index and the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply. However, on October 8, the two indices collectively corrected. Essentially, this is a normal correction after a bullish rally. However, there are also some factors that are not simple, and some institutional funds use the A50 index to short. Why?
Because the current A-share market turnover continues to exceed more than 2 trillion yuan, the scale is huge, and it is almost impossible to directly smash the A-share market. Therefore, these institutions affect the sentiment of the A-share market by shorting the A50 index and the Hong Kong stock market, thereby making the A-share market lower. It's like throwing a pebble on a calm lake, and although the pebble is not in the center of the lake, the ripples can reach here.
(2) The high opening of A-shares triggered the idea of capital exit
On October 8, the three major A-share indexes collectively opened higher in a way close to the daily limit. This has different implications for different investors. For new investors, they may have just opened an account, and before they have time to enter the market to make money, they will encounter a situation of opening high and going low.
But for the shareholders who bought the bottom at the end of September and the shareholders who took the initiative to buy sets in the early stage, the situation is different. Quite a few of them already have some profits. Although the overall account may not have fully recovered, due to the operation of replenishing or increasing positions in the early stage, at least there is room to make the difference.
In this case, when the market rises sharply, many old stockholders choose to make the difference or directly leave the market to cash out their profits. Everyone is optimistic about the bull market, why would the old stockholders leave?
This is because old shareholders have been crawling in the market and have suffered a lot, so they have a stronger sense of risk. Once you have a chance to return to your capital, you will be more conservative. New investors are often more impulsive, and they are more courageous to go long in a bull market.
Therefore, in the case of a thousand shares limit, the old shareholders' funds leave the market, and the new shareholders' funds buy, which is like a relay race of funds, but it is not yet clear who wins and who loses, and the market cannot be said to be over.
(3) Opening high and going low is to actively cool down and build momentum
Judging by the performance of the market, there are indeed signs of cooling sentiment, but this does not mean that the market is over. To be precise, the market does not want to get out of the mad bull market, but in the direction of slow bulls and long bulls.
Such a big rise on October 8 will surprise both old and new investors, because the increase is too big. Everyone knows that if the market goes too crazy, it may end up facing a painful correction.
Judging from some indications, the main funds have the intention of actively cooling down. For example, the news has begun to strictly investigate the illegal inflow of bank credit funds into the stock market, which will curb the excessive inflow of funds to a certain extent.
And in terms of policy, the press conference on the morning of October 8 did not mention much about the stock market, and there was no strong policy relay that exceeded expectations. These factors work together to cause market sentiment to cool down quickly.
In contrast, the impact of the decline in the A50 Index and the Hang Seng Index on A-shares was not the main reason. This kind of active cooling operation just shows that the market is still under control, so that the market can develop more healthily, and it also shows that the market has not yet finished, and it is more like a cooling shuffle, rather than the end of the temptation or the market.
3. The capital trend behind the daily turnover
(1) Tomorrow's incremental capital entry
We all know that many of the new investors who entered the market on October 8 were new investors who opened accounts at the end of September or during the National Day holiday. Investors who open accounts during the National Day holiday will not be able to buy stocks until October 9 at the earliest. This means that there will be a new round of incremental funds entering the market on October 9, which is a supplement to the market's bullish power.
Judging from the daily turnover of the two markets on October 8, a historical record has been created. At this time, the market sentiment is very volatile. At the opening, everyone was unanimously bullish, and once it fell, the worry spread rapidly, and many stocks were smashed in an instant.
This shows that most of the money in the market is emotional money now. There is a big disadvantage of emotional funds, that is, the speculation is strong and the operation is extreme. When the market is good, increase leverage to buy, and as soon as the market turns cold, it may immediately cut the meat or smash the market to sell, which can easily cause large fluctuations in the market.
Therefore, the regulator or the main funds will definitely find a way to calm down these funds, or wash these funds out, so that the market can slowly get out of a stable market.
(2) Analysis of trapped and fleeing funds
At the opening of the market on October 8, many new investors rushed in, and it seemed that they were trapped from that day. But in fact, it is not expected to be deeply trapped, because in the market of the old and the new, there will be new investors who will continue to push the market upward.
In addition, the outflow of domestic capital on the day was more than 200 billion, which also shows that there are many emotional funds fleeing. However, these outflows are not all bad for the market, because the more emotional money in the market, the more volatile the market will be.
At present, as long as the market remains at about 2 trillion capital transactions, it is already relatively good, but the volume can continue to hit new highs in the past few days, indicating that everyone's sentiment is still relatively high.
This is an inevitable stage in the development of the bull market, but I believe that after October 8, especially in the second half of the week, the market will enter a slow bull rhythm, and then the competition of shareholders may be stock selection and technical ability. Just like a marathon, the early stage of the fast run is just a stage, and the later part is more a test of endurance, confidence and cognitive ability.
Fourth, a few suggestions for shareholders
(1) Institutional entry hints at a slow bull market
Judging from the heavyweight stocks with a turnover of 10 billion yuan on October 8, many institutions are entering the market, and many short-selling institutions are taking the opportunity to buy low. This means that this market is a slow bull market in the medium to long term. The movement of institutional funds is often an important reference for market trends, and their entry shows that they are optimistic about the market in the long term.
(2) The significance of the divergence point of the bull market
October 8 can be seen as the first point of divergence in the bull market, which is like a big change of hands, and it is also a process of alternating between new and old stockholders. In the process, funds are redistributed among different groups, and the market landscape is quietly changing.
(3) Treat China's stock market rationally
For China's stock market, investors can not love but do not hurt. China's stock market is finally slowly coming out of the gloom and needs more rational emotions to promote. Those behaviors that maliciously sell short or incite market sentiment are not advisable, and investors must learn to stay away.
Investors should fully understand the significance of the will of the state to the bull market. A bull market plays an important role in solving economic problems, improving market expectations, and boosting market confidence, but it is not a place to gamble.
If you treat the stock market as a big gambling market, you are likely to lose money in the end. This requires investors to treat stock market investment with a rational attitude and have the concept of long-term investment, rather than short-term speculative impulses.
In the current A-share market environment, we see that behind the two seemingly contradictory data of sky-high turnover and net outflow of domestic capital, it is actually the result of the complex operation mechanism of the market and the multi-party game. From the high opening and low of the market, to the entry and exit of funds, and then to the suggestions to shareholders, this series of phenomena shows that the market is developing in the direction of slow cattle and long bulls.
For stockholders, it is necessary to adapt to this change in market rhythm and improve their investment ability and risk awareness in order to obtain stable returns in the bull market. At the same time, the regulator also needs to continuously regulate the market to prevent excessive market volatility and guide the healthy development of the market. It's a multi-participatory and mutually influencing process, and every step is crucial.