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内容提要
上一期，我们阅读了博士论文《考虑消费者预期后悔的产品定价研究》的第五章：考虑消费者预期后悔的价格歧视策略研究。此片论文的阅读也接近尾声，所以本期我们将阅读最后一个章节——第六章：总结与展望。
In the last issue, we read Chapter 5 of the doctoral thesis "Research on product pricing considering consumers' expected regret": Research on price discrimination strategies considering consumers' expected regret. The reading of this paper is also near the end, so in this issue, we will read the last chapter - Chapter 6: summary and outlook.
总结
总结部分，作者首先是简要概括了研究的背景：（1）竞争对手的直接竞争和消费者策略行为引发的跨期竞争使得企业常常面临双重竞争压力。其中动态定价策略（特别是动态削价策略）由于能够调节市场和刺激需求，成为企业调节易逝品价格重要手段。（2）技术创新加快新产品进入市场，企业为了抢占更多的市场份额或获取更多的利润，往往会选择加快创新步伐，因此选择合适的更新换代及其定价策略显得尤为重要。（3）企业可以通过大数据技术了解消费者过去是否购买的历史信息，然后针对新老顾客制定不同的价格，基于消费者购买行为，制定价格歧视策略。
然后，作者概述文章的研究问题。作者指出目前是消费者主导的商业时代，所以分析消费者行为并作出合理应对逐渐受到业界和学界的重视。目前研究往往会忽略掉人的行为，虽然考虑真实人行为模式的模型研究相对有限，但这会更容易适用于解释现实世界的选择模式。文章即考虑了消费者行为因素影响下的市场需求，纳入消费者行为因素，构建描述性模型来推导企业复杂动态下的定价决策。
In the summary part, the author first briefly summarizes the background of the study: (1) the direct competition of competitors and the intertemporal competition caused by consumers' strategic behavior often make enterprises face double competitive pressure. Among them, dynamic pricing strategy (especially dynamic price cutting strategy) has become an important means for enterprises to adjust the price of perishable goods because it can regulate the market and stimulate demand. (2) Technological innovation speeds up the entry of new products into the market. In order to seize more market shares or gain more profits, enterprises often choose to accelerate the pace of innovation. Therefore, it is particularly important to choose appropriate upgrading and pricing strategies. (3) Enterprises can understand the historical information of whether consumers have purchased in the past through big data technology, and then make different prices for new and old customers, and formulate price discrimination strategies based on consumers' purchase behavior.
Then, the author summarizes the research questions of the article. The author points out that at present, it is a consumer led business era, so analyzing consumer behavior and making reasonable responses have gradually attracted the attention of the industry and academia. Current research often ignores human behavior. Although there are relatively limited model studies considering real human behavior patterns, it will be easier to apply to explain the choice patterns in the real world. The article considers the market demand under the influence of consumer behavior factors, incorporates consumer behavior factors, and constructs a descriptive model to deduce the pricing decision of enterprises under complex dynamics.
最后，作者概括文章核心章节的内容（3-4章）。
第三章考虑了需求确定下和需求不确定两种情况下，一个垄断厂商在面对存在预期后悔的策略型消费者时，如何在销售过程中同时决定最优价格和最优的初始订购数量。结果表明：（1）需求确定下，更高的作为后悔，或者更低的不作为后悔，使得消费者立即购买的意愿降低，从而降低了企业两期总利润，且零售商应尽可能避免第二阶段的降价销售。（2）需求不确定下，企业可以通过适当的营销方案操作后悔来提高销售和盈利能力，忽略每一种消费者预期后悔对企业自身而言都是不利的。
第四章则是使用博弈理论模型研究了消费者的预期后悔如何影响品创新换代策略的选择和企业定价，研究结果为企业提供了关于创新研发质量、创新换代策略和定价决策以及如何最有效地管理消费者预期后悔几个方面的理论指导意见。
第五章则是将企业外部竞争纳入考虑，以及消费者在多次交易中可能产生切换不同企业的策略行为，此时消费者可能产生切换后悔和重复后悔。研究结果发现：预期后悔可以提高消费者对应行为价格的敏感性，对于企业来说可以在特定的情形调用特定的后悔来实现更高的企业利润。
Finally, the author summarizes the content of the core chapters of the article (chapters 3-4).
In Chapter 3, we consider how a monopolist can determine the optimal price and the optimal initial order quantity in the sales process when facing the strategic consumers with expected regret under the conditions of demand certainty and demand uncertainty. The results show that: (1) when the demand is determined, the higher act regret or the lower inaction regret will reduce the willingness of consumers to buy immediately, thus reducing the total profit of the enterprise in the two phases, and retailers should avoid the price reduction in the second phase as far as possible. (2) Under the uncertain demand, enterprises can improve their sales and profitability by operating regret through appropriate marketing schemes. Ignoring every consumer's expected regret is unfavorable to enterprises themselves.
The fourth chapter uses the game theory model to study how consumers' expected regret affects the choice of product innovation and replacement strategies and enterprise pricing. The research results provide theoretical guidance for enterprises on the quality of innovation and development, innovation and replacement strategies and pricing decisions, and how to most effectively manage consumers' expected regret.
The fifth chapter takes into account the external competition of enterprises and the strategic behavior of consumers switching between different enterprises in multiple transactions. At this time, consumers may have switching regret and repeated regret. The results show that anticipatory regret can improve the sensitivity of consumers to behavioral price, and for enterprises, they can invoke specific regret in specific circumstances to achieve higher corporate profits.
局限与展望
文章的局限之处，作者主要提出了四点：
（1）忽略了消费者在第二期退出市场，且假设也没有新的消费者加入该市场。
（2）只考虑了两阶段的时间周期，然而，大部分企业的消费者存在周期远不止于此。未来的研究可能会考察每个消费者存在于三个或更多周期的市场环境。
（3）根据二八法则，客户价值是不一样的，文章并没考虑消费者不同价值。目前已有的研究和分析模型中通常没有考虑这种特征，这将是未来进一步研究可以考虑的方向。
（4）没有考虑退货发生的情况是不受是否可退货影响的。作者指出可以扩展模型在一个包含退款保证政策的情境下，分析预期后悔是否仍然是影响消费者购买决策的重要力量。
The limitations of the article are as follows:
(1) It ignores that consumers withdraw from the market in the second phase, and it is assumed that no new consumers join the market.
(2) Only a two-stage time cycle is considered, however, the consumer existence cycle of most enterprises is far more than this. Future research may examine the market environment in which each consumer exists in three or more cycles.
(3) According to the 28 February rule, customer value is different, and the article does not consider the different values of consumers. This feature is usually not considered in the existing research and analysis models, which will be the direction for further research in the future.
(4) Returns that are not considered are not affected by whether they are returnable. The author points out that the model can be extended to analyze whether expected regret is still an important force affecting consumers' purchase decisions in a situation that includes a money back guarantee policy.
心得
学习完这篇文章，知道了作者考虑了消费者预期后悔下企业的动态定价策略，以及将消费者的预期后悔划分为切换后悔以及重复购买后悔。大致掌握了如何去分析消费者处于哪种后悔类型，在面对不同后悔类型下，怎样去分析企业的决策。
After learning this article, we know that the author has considered the dynamic pricing strategy of enterprises under the expected regret of consumers, and divided the expected regret of consumers into switching regret and repeat purchase regret. We have roughly mastered how to analyze what types of regret consumers are in and how to analyze the decisions of enterprises in the face of different types of regret.
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参考资料：谷歌翻译;
参考文献：[1]：张晋菁. 考虑消费者预期后悔的产品定价研究[D].山西大学,2018.
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