文/王易见(欢迎介绍工作，翻译和约稿等合作)
QQ 543415188 MSN [email protected] 在创业邦上看到一篇《华尔街重估中国网游前景》的文章，讲述了在华尔街眼中的中国网游市场的前景问题。其实要评价网游的现状，财报最能说明问题。而对网游可持续增长的问题，则需要从战略上来分析。
一、财报简介
目前盛大、巨人、网易三家几乎同属第一梯队，我们就来分析一下这三家07年第四季度的财报，由于网易兼有门户广告业务，我们就剥离这部分收入来比较，列入下表，一目了然。
二、财报分析
很明显，从三家游戏公司看来，盛大的规模仍然是三家中的无冕之王，网易甚至加上非游戏收入也不如盛大。虽然盛大在净利上不是最高，但考虑到盛大在2007年出台的一些新的措施，包括风云计划等，这些举措在免费网游模式成功的基础上继续为盛大提供了更多的发展机遇，也初步解决了游戏周期的问题。同时，盛大单季营收接近1亿美元，对于中国网游业绝对算得上标志性的事件。
而07年是巨人突飞猛进的一年，加上巨人在纽交所上市，07年是巨人在中国网游市场上披荆斩棘的一年，虽然营收和利润大幅增长，但目前巨人股价为10.71美元，低于上市时15.5美元的发行价。目前巨人应该处于盛大和网易当初高速增长的拐点上，对市场需要一定的适应期。
网易在07年的表现则显得平淡无奇，从营收规模上并无大幅增长，这和网易两款老游戏《大话西游 Online II》以及《梦幻西游Online》趋于饱和，而9月中正式运营的《大话西游3》给网易带来的收入很有限。在07年《梦幻西游Online》最高在线人数又创新高，达到150万人，一方面它为网易带来了不菲的收入，另一方面则暗示这款游戏增长潜力几乎到达极致。网易急需开发替代性的游戏以满足持续的增长。
三、预期展望
这三家公司目前股价分别为盛大34.89，巨人10.71，网易20.85，正如史玉柱、唐骏等所言，资本市场对中国网游还缺乏足够的安全感，所以，相比较其余如百度、阿里巴巴等公司，三家都不同程度的呈现出PE值被低估的现象。而缺乏安全感的风险因素主要有两个，一是政策风险，一是市场风险。
三家公司均不能彻底屏蔽政策风险的影响，但从盛大开展家庭娱乐战略看来，应该早有准备，而网易和巨人均没有相关举措，但网易大力发展门户可降低游戏不利因素带来的负面影响。
从三家公司发布财报后的股价反应看来，资本市场对网游的低估是客观存在的，就市场风险上，盛大免费模式以及风云计划都客观上降低了市场风险，而网易巨人风险则相对较大。因此，在08年，预计盛大能取得持续性的增长，网易能否增长取决于新游戏的市场反应，巨人将度过高速增长期进入相对平稳的发展时期。
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I have read one article which is titled as “the Wall Street revalues the perspective of On-line Games”. It expressed the problem of market for the On-line Games in the future. However, I think the key factor is financial report. For the sustainable growth of the market, the key factor is strategy. So, now let’s analyze the financial reports of the three top Internet corporations.
Short introduction of financial reports
Now, SNDA, Giant and NetEase are the top enterprises which master the market of On-Line games in China. In the fourth quarter of 2007, we can obtain the financial report as follow. Because NetEase owns the business of online advertisements, so let’s cut off this part.
Financial report analyzing
Evidently, SNDA has grasped most market and the income is at the largest scale. Although the net income of SNDA is not highest, but given the new measures for example Plan of FengYun and so on. These measures provide more opportunities for SNDA to develop. And they also solve the problem of the period of games. At the same time, the income has reached more than 100 million. It is a milestone for online games field.
In 2007, Giant has a large growth. As we know, Giant has gone public in New York Stock Exchange. Although the income has increased at a large scale, the stock price is just 10.71dollar. That is lower than the issue price. So Giant is at an early period of high growth. It needs more time to suit the market.
There is few highlight for NetEase in 2007. From the scale of income, it hasn’t large growth. The two oldest games of NetEase have little capacity to grow. The new game named “Xiyou three” can just bring limited income. The oldest game “Menghuan Xiyou” has hit the new record of more than 1.5 million players are online at the same time. On the first hand it brings more income for NetEase, on the second hand it suggests that the growth is limited. So NetEase has to developed more games to take place of it.
The perspective of the enterprises
The stock prices of the three enterprises are SNDA 34.89, Giant 10.71, NetEase 20.85. Just as Yuzhu Shi and Jun Tang said, the capital market doesn’t have enough confidence for online game market. So, comparing with Baidu and Alibaba, not only NetEase but also Giant and SNDA, the PE has been undervalued. The factors are policy risk and market risk.
The policy risk can’t be avoided. But from the strategy of “Home Entertainment”, we can know SNDA has prepared for risk. But both of others have no measures. But the portal of NetEase can low the risk.
Based on the response for the financial reports, we can know the undervaluation is objective. From the risk of the market, the free mode of SNDA has lowered the market risk. The risk of Giant is big. Whether NetEase can maintain the sustainable growth or not, that rests with the operation of the new products, and after Giant’s rapid growth, it will be in a new period of steady growth.
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