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Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing

author:International Investment Bank Research Report
Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing

In anticipation of the long holiday, the global stock market held a Spring Festival diving competition, and China should not be a big problem to win a medal.

The first reason for the market collapse is that the function of the fund as a stable market and value investment has been abandoned, whether it is liquor or chip or Gülen's medicine, we often hear that we feel too expensive to buy and hand it over to the fund manager to buy. Look at Gülen's shareholding, a broken chain of private hospitals, so expensive she can also get started, and these fund managers do not look at the general trend of the country, medicine as three mountains, must be overthrown.

It can be seen that the regulatory layer is very angry about the behavior of the fund, and Gülen is now using 2 million equivalent to a bottle of Coke to show, the probability is unable to resist the high valuation, the next step of the regulatory layer may only be able to kill the killer, Ling Tong agency feels that the fund at least have to pay last year's profit management fees or anything, otherwise, check it, the new black screen of the fund is probably darker than the black screen before 20 years ago, because the current scale is large.

As for the current situation, the students who have paid attention to us for a long time should have seen it, and we have issued many warnings, when we said that the two criteria for judging the end of the market were very clever, the first was the huge financing of leading companies (tens of billions of financing in the Ningde era at that time), and the second was the speculation of various cattle, ghosts, snakes and gods. Therefore, falling is policy, and it is not normal not to fall.

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Tesla Diving: The Last Track Bubble Is About to Collapse

Tesla dived 11%, Wei Xiaoli followed the diving, there are too many new energy companies, traditional car companies have also been transformed to new energy, so in principle there are no new energy vehicle companies, which is why the traditional new energy vehicle companies are weak. The American media recently thought, what is the comparison between tesla and traditional enterprises? What kind of technology company are you? So your valuation has to adjust.

In the Chinese market, BYD such strange companies call themselves new energy vehicles, in fact, the most sold are MDI cars, which are not in the international statistics of electric vehicle tables. And thousands of troops and horses are building cars, such as Xiaokang and Huawei, the hype of various concepts, the purpose is not to build cars and stocks, and recently rumors that a person who has been arrested has also been arrested, indicating that this market has been completely crazy to collapse.

Tesla is the leader, with Tesla's squeeze bubble, there is a high probability that China's domestic companies will also go the same way, BYD, Wei Xiaoli, Xiaokang, see who can not raise funds in the end will definitely fall first. There is a high probability that this year we can see the pushback of new energy enterprises.

In fact, I don't know that the low-IQ researcher invented the name Track Stock, and then the other low-IQ researchers accepted it. In fact, track stocks are the meaning of concept stock bubbles.

But in the long run, PE is always right, and only with profits can there be a valuation.

The development process of all industries is from concept to bubble to squeeze bubble. The Chinese market is even more so, the so-called one tube is dead and chaotic. And new energy vehicles are also typical of such a road.

It's hard to speculate!

Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing

Tesla leads the new energy vehicle diving competition began

Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing
Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing
Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing
Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing
Tesla diving: BYD Wei Xiaoli Xiaokang is queuing

Tesla's car-making strength is obvious to all, but the name of the technology giant is still debatable

Thanks to the help of the Chinese market, Tesla has managed to turn itself into an automaker with extraordinary profit margins. But whether or not Tesla can be worthy of being a tech company with a valuation of nearly a trillion DOLLARs, the answer is less clear.

Thanks to the help of the Chinese market, Tesla Inc. (TSLA) has managed to turn itself into an extraordinaryly profitable automaker. But whether or not Tesla can be worthy of being a tech company with a valuation of nearly a trillion DOLLARs, the answer is less clear.

As Tesla expanded production at its Shanghai factory over the past two years, the pioneer in the electric car industry has amassed a lot of profits that will be enough to fill all of the company's past losses. Tesla reported a fiscal fourth-quarter operating margin of 14.7 percent on Wednesday night, while in the industry, normal margin levels are typically in the single digits.

That profit margin set a Tesla record, but it didn't fall short of what analysts had previously hoped. Tesla's strong sales performance in fiscal fourth may have raised expectations that the company could have easily outpaced its 14.6 percent margin in fiscal third quarter. But the reality is that the economies of scale for increased production are offset by rising commodity prices and transportation costs and $340 million in salary expenses related to Elon Musk's stock rewards. The stock didn't fluctuate much in after-hours trading on Wednesday.

For other automakers, spending on batteries has made electric vehicles less profitable than conventional fuel vehicles. One of the reasons why Tesla has such surprising profitability may be that the company has adopted a direct sales model that is different from other car companies, that is, Tesla does not have to share profits with dealers, and the two factories that Tesla now operates are really huge. Tesla's plants in Fremont, California, and Shanghai, China, both produced about 470,000 vehicles last year, making it one of the world's largest factories by production.

Tesla will expand its factories in Austin, Texas and Berlin this year and next year, and it's important to remember the lessons learned. The company itself said the process of expanding production at the two new plants would weigh on margins. This may be especially true compared to Tesla's experience in China. The Chinese government seems to have warmly welcomed Tesla's arrival. In addition, the cost of battery supply chains in China is also lower than in Europe or North America.

The main risk Tesla faces at the execution level in the coming years is pressure on the supply chain, not only the supply of semiconductors, but also the battery. In the retail market, Tesla may continue to surpass traditional automakers, but also need to compete with them in terms of raw materials. This will become increasingly challenging as almost all traditional automakers begin to expand evictions. The price of battery metals such as nickel and lithium is sending warning signals.

Another risk has to do with valuations: Tesla's forward price-to-sales ratio is close to 12 times, which is hardly like an industrial stock. It stands to reason that even if the industrial growth strategy is executed optimally, it will not reach this high valuation level.

During Wednesday's results call, Tesla CEO Musk repeatedly stressed the importance of self-driving software to Tesla's long-term prospects. "Everything else pales in comparison to the value of self-driving taxis," he said. ”

Tesla's performance as an automaker is impressive, but whether the company can maintain a high valuation depends on whether it can become a leader in other fields. Despite the impressive results of the past year, Musk still has a lot to prove.

Musk said Tesla's focus in 2022 is on increasing deliveries rather than pushing new cars

Tesla achieved record annual profits, but Musk said Tesla won't launch new cars this year. Faced with ongoing supply chain disruptions, the EV maker is betting on increasing deliveries rather than diversifying its products.

Elon Musk said Tesla (TSLA) will not launch a new car this year. Faced with ongoing supply chain disruptions, the EV maker is betting on increasing deliveries rather than diversifying its products.

Musk said Wednesday that the introduction of new models now will weaken Tesla's ability to increase production. The company reported record profits on the same day.

Musk said Tesla's basic focus this year is to expand production. He expects the company to easily ramp up production by more than 50 percent this year.

Tesla last delivered a new model to customers nearly two years ago, when it delivered the Model Y compact SUV. Meanwhile, according to Bank of America, automakers are expected to launch more than 20 new electric vehicles in the U.S. this year.

The rapid growth in car deliveries has helped Tesla achieve record profits in 2021. Tesla reported an 87 percent increase in car deliveries last year compared to 2020, achieving a profit of $5.5 billion and sales of $53.8 billion for the full year last year, both higher than in 2020 and better than Wall Street expected. In 2020, Tesla achieved full-year profit for the first time, with a profit of $721 million and sales of $31.5 billion.

There was a global shortage of computer chips last year, but Musk's electric car manufacturing company, with its in-house software engineering expertise, achieved the fastest increase in vehicle deliveries in years. Like many car companies, Tesla has also benefited from soaring car prices caused by the shortage of supply.

But Tesla hasn't been spared the impact of supply chain problems, which the company says have led to underopening of Tesla's factories, as well as challenges such as transportation and labor.

Tesla's gross margin for its auto business last year, a measure of its cost efficiency, rose to 29.3 percent from 25.6 percent in 2020, though Tesla said rising raw material prices and higher logistics costs weakened profits, and increased costs associated with car recalls also affected profits.

Musk said the global semiconductor shortage that has hit the auto industry is expected to continue until the end of this year, although the degree of shortage will ease.

Tesla shares closed up about 2 percent during the regular trading session on Wednesday; the stock fluctuated between gains and losses during the after-hours trading session after the company's earnings report.

Among the new models that Tesla plans to launch are the Cyberruck pickup truck released in 2019, and the semi-trailer truck disclosed in 2017. Musk said the company is not currently developing the $25,000 car he had previously previewed, which is designed to give more customers access to electric vehicles.

According to FactSet data, analysts expect Tesla to build on last year's momentum, delivering nearly 1.5 million vehicles to customers in 2022. This is in line with the company's goal of increasing deliveries by an average of 50% per year over the next few years. Tesla said it had converted more than 1.22 million units into annualized production as of fiscal fourth quarter.

Key to these growth plans is new plants in Germany and Texas. The company is facing delays at both plants and was hoping to put them into operation last year. Analysts currently expect Tesla to begin delivering vehicles made at both factories in the coming months. Tesla said it has started producing the Model Y in Texas.

In Germany, the Brandenburg state government said the approval process for Tesla's factory near Berlin was in its final stages after the company submitted the last batch of required documents in December 2021.

State officials say Tesla has received provisional approvals at every step of the construction process and has been producing vehicles in small batches to test the plant's machines, but the company is not allowed to sell any vehicles produced there, or move to mass production.

The automaker said it was also looking to expand the capacity of its plant in Fremont, California.

Musk said Tesla will look at new factory locations this year and could announce options at the end of the year.

Tesla has long relied on batteries from suppliers such as Panasonic Co. (6752.TO) and has struggled to produce new, larger-capacity batteries designed in-house.

At the same time, the company has been expanding the use of advanced driver assistance features that are used to help vehicles navigate cities. Tesla said that nearly 60,000 cars in the United States can now use the urban driving tool, which is part of Tesla's "fully autonomous driving" kit, but the vehicles installed in the kit cannot drive autonomously. Tesla recently raised the price of the kit by 20 percent to $12,000.