The official results of the 2022 general election in the Philippines have been announced, with presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and vice presidential candidate Sarah Duterte-Capio both winning the vote by a clear margin, but still need to be officially announced after confirmation by the Election Commission and Congress.
In the eyes of foreign media, this election is not only related to the development of the Philippines in the next few years, but also inevitably involves two major countries in the world - China and the United States.
Previously, the Philippine media observed that the second-ranked presidential candidate in the election, the current vice president Leni Robredo, won the support of the United States. Reuters believes that the victory of The Little Marcos is good for China and unfavorable for the United States. Some Filipino scholars pointed out in an interview with the BBC that given that the Marcos family has some "human rights records" in the United States, the little Marcos will become a "Western outcast" or will seek Chinese support.
The Associated Press noted that the outcome of the Philippine election has raised immediate concerns about "further erosion of democracy" in the region and could complicate U.S. efforts to weaken China's growing influence in the Philippines. Those who share the same view include the Japanese media, which say that Marcos's policies are not clearly apparent at present.
However, Foreign Policy magazine concluded through One of Marcos's few campaign debates, arguing that he was tougher on China on the South China Sea issue than Duterte and valued the Philippine-U.S. alliance more. If China continues to be tough on the South China Sea, given the political climate in the Philippines, Even if it allies with Duterte, Marcos Jr. will adjust the foreign policy left behind by Duterte's time.
On May 7, local time, in paranak, Manila, Philippines, supporters of Philippine presidential candidate Marcos Jr. took to the streets. The picture is from the surging image
The candidate supported by the United States is that she is not him
Born in 1957, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the only son of former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and his wife, Imelda. Marcos Jr. has been "downplaying" the scandals of his father's reign, opposing allegations of corruption. During the presidential campaign, he portrayed himself as a "man who bridged divisions" and shaped his father's reign as a "golden age" in Philippine history.
Historically, Marcos Jr.'s father, The Elder Marcos, was accused of embezzling $10 billion from the government before fleeing to Hawaii. In 1986, "People Power" protests broke out in the Philippines, overthrowing the Marcos regime. Shortly after the death of The Elder Marcos in 1989, the Marcos family returned to the Philippines.
The vice presidential candidate who ran with Marcos Jr. was Sarah Duterte, the daughter of incumbent President Duterte, who said the Philippine Daily Inquirer had "indirect support" for his presidential campaign.
Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte at a campaign rally from People's Vision
Another presidential candidate, incumbent Vice President Robredo, is plastered with labels such as "pro-American" and "anti-China." Although Robredo's representative colors, pink, and Marcos's red are close to each other, they differ politically like fire and water— a staunch critic of Duterte's "war on drugs" and foreign policy, and is considered an opposition leader.
The Philippine Daily Inquirer pointed out that earlier, for this Philippine election, the Presidential candidate supported by the US government was Robredo.
Presidential candidate and current Vice President Robredo is pictured from the Philippine media
Reuters: Marcos Jr.'s victory is good for China, bad for the United States
Reuters noted that with Marcos Jr. winning a "decisive victory" in the election, the situation will not only affect the Philippines itself, but will also reshape the Southeast Asian country's relations with china and the United States. In particular, the report mentioned that Marcos Jr. sought to build a closer relationship with China.
Screenshot of the Reuters report
Because the Philippines is in the "whirlpool" of the South China Sea issue, the country is also like an important fulcrum in the geopolitical competition between China and the United States. In 2016, the Philippines unilaterally filed the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration Case", in which the arbitral tribunal exceeded its jurisdiction and bent the law, and the award was invalid and had no binding force.
During his presidential campaign, Marcos jr. also acknowledged that the ruling in the South China Sea arbitration case was "invalid" because China did not accept the so-called ruling. He said he would seek a bilateral agreement with China to resolve differences between the two sides.
"If you let the United States in, you're going to make China your enemy." He told DZRH Radio Philippines: "I think we can make a deal [with China]." In fact, the Chinese Embassy has my friend, and we have been discussing this issue. ”
In this regard, Former Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, who led the Philippine legal team at the South China Sea Arbitration Tribunal, claimed that Marcos Jr.'s position was a "betrayal" and that he and China stood against the Philippines.
But Rommel Banlaoi, a Manila-based security expert, argues that while Marcos wants a more friendly relationship with China, he is not willing to cede so-called "territory."
Mr. Marcos Jr., who ruled the Philippines for 20 years, was a close ally of the United States, Mr. Banloy said, but began engaging with China after the Philippines established diplomatic relations with China in 1975. Little Marcos came to China with his mother when he was young and witnessed the development of relations between the two countries.
In the Philippines, Marcos Jr. is considered a "China-friendly" presidential candidate, while Marcos Jr. supports the outgoing Duterte's China strategy. Earlier this year, he publicly supported Duterte's approach to China as the Philippines' "only option," that China is the Philippines' most important trading partner, and that its relationship with China is crucial to the Philippine economy.
Western "outcasts" may seek China's supportJan Robert Go, an assistant professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman, told the BBC that Marcos Jr. is likely to continue the Duterte administration's foreign policy toward China and maintain friendly relations with China rather than confrontation on the South China Sea issue.
"He mentioned that He would continue Duterte's infrastructure projects ,Build, Build, Build, and some of these projects are loans under China's Belt and Road Initiative," Mr. Wu said. Although Marcos Jr. said he would maintain the Philippine-U.S. alliance, Wu believes that this could continue to cast a shadow over Philippine-U.S. relations, given that Marcos Jr. has some pending cases in the United States and his family's "human rights record."
In 1995, the Hawaii District Court ordered the Marcos family to pay $2 billion in damages to nearly 10,000 "human rights victims" under its rule. However, Marcos Jr. has not been to the United States for 15 years, and he and his mother face an additional $353 million in fines for flouting court rulings.
On May 9, local time, Marcos Jr., the son of former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos and presidential candidate, participated in the voting. The picture is from the surging image
At present, The spokesman for Marcos Jr. did not immediately respond to a Reuters reporter's request for comment on his planned visit to the United States, and the US State Department and the US Department of Justice did not respond to a request for comment on whether Marcos Jr. would receive diplomatic immunity during his visit to the United States.
"At that time, Little Marcos will become an 'outcast' in the West, and he may seek support from China," Wu said.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said at a News Conference on May 10 that it was too early to comment on the outcome of the Philippine election or what might have an impact, but the United States looked forward to continuing a special partnership with the new Philippine government.
Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, said: "The landslide victory of Marcos Jr. will disappoint many in Washington. ”
"But that doesn't change the fact that the U.S.-Philippines alliance is more important than ever, and the U.S. needs to continue to work to deepen that alliance." Pauline said.
Security expert Ban Rauy said Marcos jr. would seek to maintain an alliance with the United States, but he would leave some room for choice. "Depending on how the bilateral relationship between the Philippines and the United States under the BBM regime has developed, renegotiating the mutual defense treaty remains an option." The BBM that Banraoi is referring to here is the little Marcos nickname of the little Marcos's childhood name, "Bongbong Marcos".
AP: Marcos Jr.'s victory complicates U.S. efforts against China
For the victory of Marcos Jr. and the imminent coming to power, the US media also looked at it negatively. The Associated Press pointed out that Marcos Jr.'s election as the new Philippine president comes at a time when the United States is increasingly concerned about the Indo-Pacific region and embarks on the implementation of the "U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy" announced in February this year, that is, to significantly expand U.S. engagement with the region by strengthening security alliances and partnership networks in response to China's growing influence and ambitions.
Screenshot of the Associated Press report
Like Reuters, the Associated Press also mentioned Marcos Jr.'s attitude toward China: preparing to shelve the "South China Sea arbitration case," hoping to establish closer relations with China, and basically continuing the foreign policy toward China under Duterte.
In its approach to the United States, Marcos Jr. is expected to maintain the Philippines' alliance with the United States, but the relationship is compounded by the United States' support for the government that came to power after his father was deposed, and the Marcos family's legal case in the Hawaii District Court.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, whose approval rating is 67 percent as he leaves office, has forged closer ties with China and Russia during his tenure and has blamed the United States from time to time. However, he has also withdrawn some of the threats he made to the United States, such as abrogating a defense agreement between the two countries.
Some political science experts say that the U.S.-Philippines relationship depends largely on U.S. President Joe Biden, who has an advantage in the Philippines' geostrategic interests on the one hand, and must strike a balance in promoting the U.S. ideal of "democracy and human rights."
"If he (Biden) chooses the latter, he may have to isolate the Marcos Jr. government, and Marcos Jr.'s attitude toward the United States will depend a lot on how Biden engages with him." The political science expert said.
Pauling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that while the Biden administration may be more inclined to cooperate with Robredo, its relationship with the Marcos Jr. government is crucial to the security and prosperity of both countries, especially in the new era of Sino-American competition.
Pauline said that unlike Robredo,who wants to confront China, Marcos Jr.'s policies seem like "over-the-top," eschewing not only presidential debates, but also interviews, and remaining silent on most issues.
Similar to the Associated Press is the Japanese outlet Nikkei Asia. The media believes that Marcos Jr. is believed to continue Duterte's China-friendly line, and his victory may complicate U.S. efforts in the Asia-Pacific region (against China). It's unclear how the Marcos government will deal with the United States.
Foreign Policy sings a different tune: Marcos Jr. is not a "Duterte remake"
Unlike most of the media's analytical views, foreign policy magazine wrote on May 10 to "declassify" Marcos's policies. Just as other media outlets saw Marcos Jr. as supporting Duterte's China policy, the magazine said it was not a copy of Duterte at the foreign policy level, and that he intended to "defend sovereignty" in front of China and prioritize alliances with the United States.
It is worth noting that when Foreign Policy magazine analyzes the relations between China, the United States and the Philippines, the main focus is the South China Sea issue.
Screenshot of a Foreign Policy magazine article
Marcos Jr. may be influenced by the policies of his father and Duterte to form a new government interested in dealing with China in the future, but at the same time keep the United States by his side. Politically, he would seek an alliance with Duterte.
Therefore, in the next six years of his term, the United States should expect a slightly different "Duterte-style leader" who is friendly to China, but will not show the intention of dissolving the Philippine-American alliance as Duterte did, and if China continues to be tough on the South China Sea, he may even strengthen the Philippine-American alliance.
Although he rejected most of the debates during the campaign, Marcos Jr. participated in a major debate this year, and Foreign Policy magazine said it was some of the statements made in this debate that gave glimpses of his policy.
"Whatever the superpowers try to do, we must cooperate within the interests of the Philippines," Marcos Jr. said. We cannot allow ourselves to be part of the foreign policies of other countries, we must have our own foreign policies. The statement suggests that he will neither let the Philippines stick to an alliance with the United States nor forge a new partnership with China, but rather want to follow a middle path to cope with increasing great power competition.
Marcos Jr. also stressed in the debate that the Philippines is a geopolitical "hot spot", claiming that the country "will not give up any inch of land to any country, especially China." According to foreign policy magazine, Marcos Jr. said in the "South China Sea Arbitration Case" that "the Philippines no longer has a chance" because China refused to participate in the arbitration, which should not be interpreted as his denial of the award, but admitted that without The cooperation of the Chinese side, it would be difficult to enforce the award.
And Marcos Jr. also showed determination in the South China Sea during the debate, saying its goal was to "show China that the Philippines is not going to fire on Chinese ships, but is defending our territorial waters." "The Philippines needs to make China aware that we know what they are doing, that we do not agree with their approach, and will continue to resolve issues through diplomacy and other channels so that it does not happen again." Once again, his remarks about China were much tougher than Duterte's.
Infographic: Current Philippine President Duterte Is from the surging image
Marcos Jr. is also distinctly different from Duterte in looking at the Philippine-U.S. relationship, which he calls a "very important alliance" that has benefited the Philippines for more than a hundred years. Unlike Duterte's attempt to dismantle the Philippine-American alliance, Marcos Jr.'s speech represented a priority for the Philippine-American alliance.
Foreign Policy magazine also pointed out at the end that all of Marcos's statements are only one expression. In the coming years, he must prove the consistency of his words and deeds with practical actions.
But in the end, the article still argues that Duterte's policy has failed at the political level, given the sentiment of the Filipino public, military leadership and other voters today, the fact that a significant number of people support the United States, and that China's hardline stance on the South China Sea shows no signs of abating. As a result, Marcos Jr. is likely to adjust Duterte's foreign policy to maximize the Strategic Interests of the Philippines to avoid falling into the same trap.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.