Since the outbreak of a new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict last October, Allah Lebanon has begun attacking Israeli military targets in the Lebanese-Israeli border area. Not long ago, the Israeli military approved a plan to attack Allah in Lebanon, which aroused widespread concern from the outside world. However, Israel may provoke an opponent it should not provoke this time, because Allah is far less powerful than Hamas, which greatly increases the risk of escalation of war in the Middle East.
Allah is widely recognized as one of the most militarily powerful non-state armed forces in the Middle East. It is estimated that the organization has an active regular army of about 20,000 to 50,000 men, and can mobilize more than 100,000 reservists and militia in wartime. In other words, in the event of a conflict with Israel, Allah Lebanon could mobilize at least 100,000 soldiers to fight, which is more than Hamas. At the same time, this armed force has achieved a high degree of regularization, has the basic elements of a modern army such as military ranks, etiquette, and command system, and has established a set of "hierarchical + honeycomb" military order system, so that it can fight independently and act jointly.
By learning the methods of combat between the United States and Israel, the Allah armed forces have focused on cultivating their reconnaissance, camouflage, sabotage and night combat capabilities. Its performance in tactical mobility, the use of weapons, and the operation of small detachments sometimes even surpasses the armies of some Middle Eastern countries. After many years of fighting with the Israeli army, the organization has accumulated a wealth of practical combat experience.
In terms of weaponry, Allah is even more eye-popping. It is estimated that its stockpile of rockets and missiles may exceed 200,000, far exceeding the quantity and quality of Hamas. 122-millimeter rockets, guided rockets, ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and anti-ship missiles are all its specialties. In addition, Allah attaches great importance to the use of drones, often used for reconnaissance and strikes.
Even more impressive, Allah has built a vast network of underground tunnels in Lebanon, hundreds of kilometers long, some of which are even vehicular accessible. These tunnels connect command posts, warehouses, hospitals and other important facilities, and are equipped with missile silos, greatly increasing Allah's survivability and strike capabilities.
The risks of Israel clashing with such a formidable enemy are self-evident. In the event of a full-scale war, both sides will pay a heavy price. As supporters of Allah, regional powers such as Iran could also be drawn in, with unpredictable consequences. The United States has realized this, and a few days ago, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin issued a stern warning when meeting with the Israeli defense minister, stressing that the conflict between Israel and Allah in Lebanon could easily turn into a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East.
"Allah's provocations could drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into wars they don't want," he said bluntly. Such a war would be devastating for Lebanon and devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians. "On this basis, Austin stressed that diplomacy is the only way to prevent further escalation of tensions in the Middle East." We are therefore urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that will allow lasting calm to return to Israel's northern border and allow civilians on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border to return home safely.
At present, the United States is actively promoting relevant diplomatic agreements to ease tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Analysts point out that even if the Israeli army launches an offensive against Allah, it will face great challenges, and this will also bring serious problems to the United States and Europe.
From the perspective of US interests, the outbreak of war between Israel and Allah in Lebanon will pose a serious threat to its strategic layout in the Middle East. As a staunch ally of Israel, the United States is bound to provide a large amount of military and economic assistance to ensure Israel's security once it sees Israel involved in another protracted war. However, the United States is currently facing many thorny issues in the Middle East, including the Iranian nuclear issue, the Syrian civil war, and the Yemen conflict. The escalation of the Israeli-Lebanese conflict will undoubtedly further divert the limited diplomatic and military resources of the United States, leaving it in a dilemma of assistance and military involvement on multiple fronts.
What worries the United States even more is that once the war between Israel and Lebanon escalates, the flames of war are very likely to spread to neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Syria. It is well known that Allah has strong support from Iran and Syria behind it. Once Israel launches a large-scale military strike against Allah, it will provide an excellent excuse for Iran and Syria to fight back against Israel and attack America's Middle East allies. At that time, the United States will have to devote more military resources to fully support Israel and other pro-American regimes, and even have to directly enter the war. This not only means that the United States will bear the brunt of the heavy costs of war and counter-terrorism in the Middle East, but its global strategic layout will also be greatly constrained.
On the other hand, the escalation of the Israeli-Lebanese war will also trigger a new humanitarian catastrophe. A large-scale war will lead to a sharp increase in civilian casualties, which could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon and the entire region. Refugee flows, disease, famine and other problems may once again plague the Middle East. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the United States should shoulder the main responsibility and invest a lot of manpower and material resources to assist Lebanon and other countries. This will undoubtedly further increase the burden of its assistance in the Middle East. However, in view of the domestic economic situation and public opinion base of the United States, its ability to provide foreign aid may be limited, and the US Government is likely to find itself in a difficult situation at home and abroad on the issue of aid.
It can be said that the outbreak of war between Israel and Lebanon may not only drag the United States into a new strategic quagmire and force it to face the dilemma of multi-front operations and assistance in terms of personnel and materials, but is more likely to trigger a chain reaction and shake its strategic foundation in the Middle East. In order to safeguard its strategic interests in the Middle East and avoid costly military and humanitarian burdens, the US Government has no choice but to do everything possible to prevent the escalation of the Israeli-Lebanese conflict and push the two sides to resolve their differences through negotiations.
Of course, Israel, as the other party, should also be cautious about the contradictions with Allah and refrain from rash actions. If the gun goes off, the volatile powder keg of the Middle East is likely to be ignited again, and this is by no means what Israel and the whole world are happy to see. Peace will always be the common aspiration of the people of all countries. With the mediation of the major powers, it is believed that all parties will eventually find a good way to resolve the crisis.