Since the beginning of this year, extreme heat weather has occurred frequently around the world, constantly refreshing historical records. According to the calculations of the authoritative European meteorological agency, this year will be the hottest year on record on the planet.
In the United States, high temperatures have led to a dramatic reduction in rainfall, with 48 out of 50 states affected by severe drought. The drought and lack of water have also had an unintended impact on Americans' favorite beef product: the price of beef has risen to an all-time high due to scarcity as pastures have degraded into sandy land and beef cattle are not adequately fed.
Drought persists in many parts of the United States
But for cattle farmers, the high price of meat has not made them happy. The data shows that U.S. cattle meat production is decreasing due to a lack of high-quality pasture. Farmers are selling their cattle at a rapid pace due to the high cost of meat, rather than patiently waiting for them to grow up. With such a mentality, the supply of beef in the United States is bound to become even more scarce in the coming years.
"Hottest year"
Scientist: It's like a Hollywood disaster movie
Copernicus Europe Earth, an authoritative meteorological observation agency in Europe, recently said that the temperature in October this year was 0.85 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average temperature of the month. This deviation is more than double that of September this year and the highest since meteorological records began.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus Europe Earth, said that before October, global temperatures had broken through the historical extremes of the same month for four consecutive months. With temperatures significantly higher than the same period in history for an extended period of time, this year is "almost certain" to be the hottest year on Earth's climate record.
David Rey, a climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh, said: "The data for temperatures, sea temperatures, ocean glaciers and other aspects in 2023 are so bad that it looks like a disaster movie scene from a Hollywood movie. If our current global effort to combat climate change were a movie, the title of the film would be "A Mess". ”
Along with extreme heat, a series of extreme weather events have occurred around the world this year.
Over the past month, a wildfire has raged in northern Australia. Copernicus European Earth said the number and intensity of fires were "significantly higher" than the 20-year average for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. At the same time, Storm Babette in Northern Europe and Storm Arlene in Portugal and Spain caused much above-average rainfall in much of Europe. Last month, a hurricane of record intensity hit Mexico's coastline, causing great disruption to weather conditions in the Americas.
Extreme heat has led to frequent bushfires in places like Australia
The pasture turns into sand
U.S. beef prices have skyrocketed and broken records
The hot weather has also had a severe impact on the western and southern regions of the United States, which have traditionally relied on beef cattle farming. The U.S. Drought Monitor said the western U.S. has faced its worst drought in 1,200 years since late last year, and many states are still out of drought as of Oct. 31 this year.
In an arid climate, the once fertile green pastures have turned into dusty sandy land, and it is difficult for cattle to grow meat without "rations". In this regard, farmers generally have two options: one is to bring hay from a farther place instead of natural pasture in the pasture; The second is to send the calves to the feedlot to be fed with grains (mainly soybeans, corn, wheat), and the higher cost of grain feeding means that the calves must be fattened quickly in a short period of time, slaughtered and sold before they are physiologically mature.
However, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global grain prices have been pushed higher, and grain-fed calves have become an unaffordable option. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the amount of hay stored in the U.S. domestic is currently 71.9 million tons, the lowest since 1954. Many farmers do not have access to enough hay to feed their cattle and have to slaughter and sell it early. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are about 28.9 million beef cattle in the U.S. this year, the lowest level since 1962.
The average price of beef sold in U.S. stores and supermarkets has risen to about $8 per pound this month, surpassing the all-time high of $7.90 reached during the pandemic, the data showed. Live cattle prices in the Chicago market were also near record levels at $1.79 per pound, compared to $1.50 a year earlier.
The size of the herd has been drastically reduced
The future supply of beef in the United States is a concern
In the face of record beef prices, American farmers are not happy. Because in the coming years, the environment in the U.S. beef market will become even worse, the cost of beef cattle will be higher, and consumers will have to pay higher prices to grab the increasingly scarce supply of beef.
Amelia Kent, a rancher in Louisiana, warned, "This ongoing drought is an environmental event that has a significant impact on the nation's cattle herd, and you're going to see all the cattle being slaughtered and sold in large numbers." My immediate concern is what the beef industry in our region and across the country will look like in 6 months? What will our beef market look like in 12 months? ”
The farmer is grazing
Bill Rapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, a food economic consultancy, said herd sizes in cattle-raising states like Kansas and Texas have drastically reduced in the past two years. In the short term, farmers sell some beef early at high prices, but this has a big impact on the long-term future of the farming industry.
U.S. beef production is down 5.2 percent this year from a year earlier, according to Alain Suderman, chief commodity economist at StoneX brokerage, and he estimates another 7 percent next year. Once the herd starts to shrink dramatically, it is slow to recover, Sudeman said. "A hen lays about 300 eggs a year, a sow can give birth to about 25 piglets a year, and a cow can only lay 1 calf a year. In the past two years, many U.S. farmers have sold their cows early that are not fully fertile. ”
Adam Speck, a senior analyst at futures commodity research firm Gro Intelligence, said, "The fact that many heifers have recently been sent to feedlots for grain fattening shows that farmers are not taking a long-term view to maintaining a healthy herd size." ”
Red Star News reporter Zheng Zhi
Edited by He Xianxian, edited by Guan Li
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