After only a day or two of rest, the rain can't wait to return to South China, thunderstorms in southeastern Guangxi during the day today, and there was a short-term heavy precipitation of 52.2 mm in Rong County in one hour. In addition, strong convection has also begun to appear in Yunnan, and the temperature has dropped significantly, and even the dry and hot valley is only in the early 35 degrees of "ordinary" heat. In the coming week, it will still be rainy in South and Southwest China, although the rain is not as fierce as before, but thunderstorms, strong winds and hail are still committed everywhere, everyone should pay more attention to weather changes, and be alert to the risk of strong convection and geological disasters.
1. The water level in the Philippines dropped by 26 meters
According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, on the 7th and 9th and 11th and 12th, there will be rain in the east and south of Yunnan one after another, mainly light to moderate rain, with locally heavy rain, which is conducive to alleviating the meteorological drought, but the precipitation in the central and northwest of Yunnan is still weak.
In fact, in addition to the recent drought in Yunnan, a strong drought is also sweeping through Southeast Asia. According to media sources, after a long period of high temperatures and little rain, the water level of the Pantabangan Dam in Nuevo Esija Province in the Philippines has recently dropped by 26 meters, and the bottom of some reservoirs has dried up, causing the ruins of an ancient town to emerge from the water and resurface. Called Ordas, the ancient town was an important trading center during the colonial period and was once inhabited by more than 2,000 families, but was submerged in a reservoir in the 1920s, and only some of its remains were exposed during extreme droughts.
Meteorological monitoring data shows that in the past April, there was an unusually strong high temperature weather throughout the Philippines, and the temperature across the country hit a record high last month, with new annual records at many stations, and extremely rare heat waves.
2. Megadrought swept Southeast Asia!
In fact, from the end of April to the beginning of May, many places in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, had heat waves, and many stations in Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos and other countries had heat waves that broke meteorological records, and some stations even broke national records. In the heat wave, many places in Southeast Asia are also facing a severe drought.
According to a recent joint study by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the frequent occurrence of drought events can further exacerbate water and ecological security risks in the region, which has affected more than 66 million people in Southeast Asia over the past 30 years, and calls for efforts to improve resilience to drought.
So why is there such a drought in Southeast Asia? The answer is El Niño. El Niño is a global climate anomaly that lasts for months or even more than a year due to an anomalous increase in sea temperature in the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and usually lasts for nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which began in the second half of 2023 when meteorological agencies declared an El Niño event, and in May 2024, the Pacific Ocean was in the midst of an El Niño recession.
El Niño is characterized by an anomalous increase in sea temperature over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean reaching or exceeding 0.5 degrees Celsius, forming a warm current that spreads eastwards and affects the west coast of South America. The east-west winds in the equatorial region of the Pacific are weakened or reversed, resulting in the weakening or deviation of the updraft over the equatorial region, forming an anomalous subsidence branch to control the west coast of the Pacific Ocean.
In addition, the sea temperature in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean is also affected, with abnormal changes. Significant abnormal changes in meteorological elements such as precipitation, temperature, wind direction, and wind speed occur worldwide, causing various extreme weather events.
The impact of El Niño on Southeast Asia, which is also tropical, is significant: due to the weakening or shift of the updraft in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the summer monsoon precipitation in Southeast Asia is reduced, and drought occurs. Especially in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, the duration and scope of drought are large, causing losses in agriculture, hydropower, ecology and other aspects. Due to the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, the temperature in Southeast Asia will also change abnormally, in general, the temperature in an El Niño year will be higher than normal, especially in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and other countries, the frequency and intensity of high temperature and heat waves will increase, which will adversely affect people's lives and health.
El Niño is a global climate anomaly that can have a significant impact on the climate in Southeast Asia, leading to extreme weather events such as droughts and heat waves. But in reality, El Niño also affects the monsoon in East Asia, leading to variations in summer precipitation. After the extreme drought swept many countries in Southeast Asia, the mainland should also strengthen meteorological monitoring and early warning to effectively cope with and mitigate the impact of abnormal weather caused by the El Niño phenomenon.