After the Ren'ai Jiao incident, the attitude of the Philippines has changed again and again, and it can really be said that it is faster than turning a book. Just when the outside world thought that the situation in the South China Sea was expected to cool down, a new change appeared.
Preamble:
The aftermath of the "confrontation" between Filipino soldiers and the Chinese Coast Guard at Second Thomas Shoal is still fermenting. The international community has closely followed the actions of China and the Philippines in the aftermath of this incident.
According to public information, the PLA has held a series of exercises in the South China Sea, and the appearance of various advanced ships has sent a clear signal to the Philippines. In contrast, the attitude of the Philippines seems somewhat ambiguous, sometimes tough, sometimes weak.
(0.55 million tons of South China Sea exercise)
1. Philippine Foreign Minister: I hope to have a dialogue with China
Recently, Philippine Foreign Secretary Manaro said that on the South China Sea issue, the Philippines hopes to resolve differences with China through dialogue. According to Manaro, what happened at Second Thomas Shoal should not be allowed to define bilateral relations, and the two countries should take corresponding measures to return to the negotiating table in order to better resolve the issue.
On the South China Sea issue, China has always hoped that all parties will resolve their differences through negotiation and consultation. However, the Philippines has turned a blind eye to China's sincerity and even brought in external forces in an attempt to fish in troubled waters.
Now that hard power cannot be compared, Philippine officials have begun to talk about "China-Philippines dialogue" again, which is more like using smoke bombs to confuse China's attention.
At the same time as Manaro's remarks, the Philippines said it would continue to deliver supplies to the illegally "beached" warships, but would not announce the replenishment operations in advance. The Philippine defense secretary also said that it was to promote dialogue between the two countries and ease tensions.
You know, the Philippines is not only transporting supplies, but also building materials hidden within. China's attitude has always been very clear, the delivery of supplies can be carried out but only with advance notice, what does the Philippine side's statement mean now, that is, the so-called supplies will still be sent, and they will be sent secretly, is this to resolve differences? This is obviously a different way to provoke China.
(Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Manaro)
Of course, even if the Philippines sends it secretly, the Chinese coast guard can stop it. But the Marcos administration's move to talk while looking for something is ridiculous.
In fact, in addition to Manaro, there are voices in the Philippines calling for China to continue to invest, which is obviously that some people have been awakened by the slap of reality, and now the Philippines is increasingly unable to bear the consequences of tensions with China, but these do not seem to shake the Marcos government's ambition to seize China's islands and reefs, so naturally there is nothing to say.
2. Showing goodwill to China? Expert: It's for a show
The attitude of the Philippine side has changed again and again, and naturally it cannot be a decision with a pat on the head, and there are only a lot of ideas behind it. According to the analysis of some experts, from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos to the Philippine high-level officials, all the speeches were aimed at the United States and the international community first.
Marcos' previous mention of not provoking a "war" is likely to reassure the United States and ensure its continued support for the Philippines. Previously, China and the Philippines clashed at Ren'ai Jiao, and a number of PLA warships rushed to the South China Sea for exercises.
This move by the United States shows that it does not intend to confront the Philippines and the People's Liberation Army head-on, and once the situation escalates, the US military will run faster than anyone else. Under such circumstances, Marcos could only "knock out his teeth and swallow it in his stomach", trying his best to alleviate the United States' worries about the escalation of the situation, and save the United States from withdrawing its support before the PLA could take action.
With the tension between China and the Philippines, dissatisfaction with the Marcos government in the Philippines has also become more and more loud, and the easing of Marcos's attitude may also be aimed at calming domestic voices to a certain extent.
(Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos)
The most important thing is that in the confrontation after confrontation, the difference in strength between China and the Philippines is more obvious.
Whether in terms of coast guard strength or naval strength, the Philippines is much worse than the PLA, and even the US media have to admit that the Chinese military has gained absolute military superiority in the South China Sea. Moreover, the Philippines is now alone in ASEAN, and the situation is becoming more and more unfavorable.
All in all, a combination of factors has led the Philippines to make a temporary compromise.
3. The United States continues to stir up the storm, and this time it is a big deal
The U.S. aircraft carrier ran away, but seeing that the situation had calmed down temporarily, the United States came again and drew a super pie for the Philippines.
Kurt Campbell, the U.S. deputy secretary of state and a White House official for Asia-Pacific affairs, said the U.S. had lodged a formal diplomatic protest with the Chinese side over what happened at Second Thomas Shoal. He stressed that the United States has sent a clear signal that it will always stand with the Philippines.
At this time, I have to say that the United States is salty and does not worry about the affairs between China and the Philippines, what diplomatic protests have the United States raised, and what is the matter with the United States?
Campbell said that the United States had drawn a "red line" on the South China Sea issue and would intervene with troops. However, what the so-called "red line" is, Campbell did not disclose.
Since the Philippines provoked China in the South China Sea, the United States and the Philippines have repeatedly threatened China with the word "red line." However, compared to the PLA, the word "red line" is more like a message to the Philippines, with the aim of getting the Philippines not to give up its provocative actions.
(U.S. aircraft carrier)
Bowls of ecstasy soup, the Philippines is indeed different, and the warning that "the United States uses the Philippines as a tool" is not heeded.
The Americans themselves have said that the Philippines is just a geopolitical tool of the United States to contain China, and the Marcos government has been saying "I don't listen, I don't listen." Is it so hard to admit that you are a "pawn"? Or is it so hard to get lost?
U.S. officials have bluntly said the Philippines should sit down and engage with China. The Philippines, which has been reduced to a "tool", should wake up!