After the failure of the South China Sea, the Philippines played the "Taiwan card" and threatened to assist the US military in the Taiwan Strait. The foreign minister seeks peace, the defense minister seeks war, and the Philippines is entangled with whether to fight or make peace with China?
The South China Sea failed, and the Philippines wanted to assist the US military in entering the Taiwan Strait
If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, will the Philippines follow the US military into the war? Obviously, this issue is not only of concern to us, but also to the Filipinos themselves. And Shinobayashi believes that as long as the Filipinos have a normal mind, then they will definitely not follow the United States to wade into this troubled water that will lead to the destruction of their country.
However, Shinobayashi noted that with the Filipino side suffering a crushing defeat in the new round of Ren'ai Jiao conflict provoked by itself on June 17, the Filipinos have also begun to show adventurism on this "red line issue."
Let's first answer the most basic question: if the Philippines follows the US military to intervene in Taiwan, how much threat will this pose to us?
The answer is, almost nothing. After all, with the Philippines' military strength, the most their army can do is to send a large number of army soldiers to be cannon fodder for the US military.
So why does the United States still attach so much importance to wooing the Philippines, and why does it have to involve them in its strategy of "protecting Taiwan by force"?
This is because the real value of the Philippines in the war in the Taiwan Strait is their geographical location:
The northernmost tip of the Philippines is only 150 kilometers away from Taiwan, not to mention large transport planes, and US military helicopters can fly directly from the mainland of the Philippines to Taiwan Island. Although this distance is a little farther than Japan's southernmost point and Taiwan, compared with Japan's cramped islands, the Philippine Luzon Island, which is closest to Taiwan, covers an area of 109,900 square kilometers, which is even three times larger than the 35,800 square kilometers of Taiwan Island.
It can be said that as long as the Philippines is willing to allow the US military to use Luzon Island as a springboard to attack Taiwan, the difficulty of our military reunification will increase exponentially.
In February last year, Marcos Jr., who had only been in power for a year at the time, deliberately agreed to expand the 2014 US-Philippine "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement" and open four additional military bases for the use of the US military, bringing the number of US military bases available in the Philippines to nine, most of which are concentrated on Luzon, so that the US military initially has the basic conditions for a large-scale build-up around Taiwan.
The decision sparked angry protests in China at the time and caused an uproar in the Philippines. In order to appease China's anger, on April 10 last year, Marcos Jr. personally came forward, saying that the Philippine military bases available to the United States would not be used to launch attacks, and Washington's defense arrangements were only to strengthen the Philippine defense;
On April 19, Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro also publicly stated that the Philippines would not allow US military bases in the Philippines to store weapons that were used in military operations related to the Taiwan Strait, nor would it allow US warships and aircraft to replenish fuel, repair or re-equip at Philippine bases.
But the question is, how does the Philippine side define that the weapons that the US military puts at these bases will not involve military operations in the Taiwan Strait? At that time, Shinobayashi knew that since the head of the open base had been opened, it was only a matter of time before how to achieve the ambitions of the United States step by step.
Sure enough, on April 15 this year, the US military, not to mention Taiwan-related weapons, even temporarily deployed Tomahawk missiles with a range of more than 2,000 kilometers and could directly hit Chinese mainland to Luzon; Some recent satellite photographs have also proved that the "Super Hornet" fighters of the US aircraft carrier battle group have long entered these bases in groups for refueling and rearmament.
Then on June 25, Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romudes finally couldn't help but say what the Marcos Jr. government really thought:
In an interview with the Financial Times on the same day, he openly declared that the Chinese coast guard's recent obstruction of the Philippines' "supply" to Second Thomas Shoal would affect the whole of Asia. Later, he directly threatened China, saying that the bases provided by the Philippines to the US military were originally only to enhance the Philippines' "defense capability", but if "our defense establishment believes that the US military's 'assistance in the defense of Taiwan' is also beneficial to the Philippines, then the Philippines is likely to agree to let the US military use these bases to 'assist in the defense of Taiwan.'"
To put it bluntly, the Philippine ambassador to the United States has openly equated the sovereignty conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea with the Taiwan issue -- if we want us not to get involved in the Taiwan war, you China must make concessions on the South China Sea issue.
The foreign minister seeks peace, the defense minister seeks war, and the Philippines is divided internally
So can we accept such a "quid pro quo"?
Shinobayashi believes that not to mention how disgusting our feelings are, whether the Marcos Jr. government can keep this promise on its own is still a bigger question.
According to Reuters, on June 25, Philippine Foreign Secretary Manaro claimed at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that the Philippines hopes to engage in dialogue with China on the South China Sea issue and "confidence-building measures", and hopes to hold relevant talks in July to ease tensions.
On the 26th, Manaro said that the Philippine government had sent a note verbale to China, hoping to conduct dialogue with China as soon as possible through the bilateral consultation mechanism on maritime disputes established earlier by the two countries.
Isn't this statement commendable?
But at the same time, the attitude given by the Philippine military is diametrically opposite:
Earlier, on the 24th, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro publicly declared that the Philippines would continue to carry out "humanitarian supply" missions to Ren'ai Jiao, and completely reversed the Marcos Jr. administration's earlier statement that the clash on the 17th was just an "accident", saying that "we have not downplayed this incident, this is an aggressive illegal use of force."
At the same hearing on the 25th, Teodoro directly expressed strong opposition to Manalo's proposal to hold talks between China and the Philippines in front of all Philippine congressmen, and "shifted" the responsibility for the deteriorating situation in the South China Sea to China, falsely claiming that China "did not show enough sincerity" and "used negotiations to deal with the Philippines".
Obviously they are all members of Marcos Jr.'s cabinet, how can there be such a huge contradiction between the defense minister and the foreign minister? Is it really as some reports have analyzed, even Marcos Jr. himself can't hold down the Philippine military, which is backed by the United States?
But instead of believing in the Filipino infighting, Mr. Shinobayashi believes that Marcos Jr. deliberately let his two subordinates sing black and white faces to test China. This is because you must know that the previous Romoudes, who threatened China with the issue of bases, is Marcos Jr.'s real close confidant, and Marcos Jr., who is living now, is even more unlikely to handle the current relations with China and the United States on the premise that China can win this war of reunification, which will not necessarily happen.
In any case, Marcos Jr. will inevitably continue to follow the United States, and whether or not to get involved in a war in the Taiwan Strait is no longer a problem. It's just that Marcos Jr. is deliberately creating an uncertain illusion in order to try to get more benefits from China.
Shinobayashi feels that for such a little Marcos, we really need to continue to strengthen the hammering.