Ren'ai Jiao transportation is blocked, the Philippine ambassador to the United States intimidates China, and a nuclear war may break out in the South China Sea? If China and the United States engage in war in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines may use the base to send troops to the US military, why do you say that this is self-defeating? China's patience in the South China Sea is limited, and the Philippines should hurry!
The South China Sea was blocked, and the Philippine ambassador to the United States intimidated China
For the current situation in the South China Sea, the confrontation between China and the Philippines on the 17th is undoubtedly a turning point. The attitude of the Philippine government towards this confrontation has also changed again and again, from being tough at the beginning, to softening later, and finally still changing back to a tough stance.
There is not even a unified narrative within the Philippine government about this confrontation. However, for the Philippines, its most elite special forces could not beat the law enforcement police on the opposite side, and 7 guns were confiscated, which can be regarded as one of the best "scandals" in the world, but this does not prevent some Philippine officials from speaking openly, openly speaking harshly on international occasions, trying to intimidate China after the failure to touch the porcelain Ren'ai Jiao.
On June 26, Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdez said in an interview with the Financial Times that the South China Sea region is now facing the most dangerous moment, and weapons of mass destruction are a very real threat, many countries and powers have huge nuclear arsenals, once there is a conflict with China in the South China Sea, it is very likely to sweep the entire Asia-Pacific region, and eventually detonate a nuclear war. Therefore, in the current international situation, the United States is committed to upgrading the alliance network in the Indo-Pacific region, and the Philippines also added four new bases for the use of the US military last year. However, the Philippine side has not yet confirmed whether these bases will be open to the US military to attack other countries in wartime.
Romualdez further stressed that if the Philippine defense establishment believes that the Philippines will be affected by a Sino-US war, then it is very possible for the US military to use these bases to "defend Taiwan" in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, because the Philippine side is very likely to agree to the US application. Later, Romuldez added a "disclaimer", saying that "hopefully this will never happen" and that if it does, then the Philippines will "play a role in the Asian theater."
Although from the wording of this statement, we can find that the Philippine ambassador to the United States has said a bunch of unnutritious clichés, and has not confirmed whether the Philippines will assist the US military in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, but putting this "possibility" on the table is a naked "intimidation", trying to pull the "tiger skin" of the United States, and using the base to send troops to touch the Taiwan Strait issue that has nothing to do with itself, in order to force China to make concessions on the South China Sea issue.
If there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines is not qualified to intervene
However, from a practical point of view, if a conflict breaks out between China and the United States over the Taiwan Strait issue, whether the Philippines chooses to intervene or not will not have the slightest impact on the outcome of this war. Based on the comparison of military strength between China and the United States, China is still able to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the US military will face an unprecedented military defeat.
The difference is whether the people of the Philippines will suffer the scourge of war.
Because once the Philippines lends a base to the US military, then in China's judgment, the Philippines will also be in the ranks of enemy countries, and the PLA's long-range attack weapons will also launch a comprehensive strike against military targets in the Philippines.
The Philippines is already a small country, with low industrial productivity and backward level of development, and if it suffers another destruction of this scale, I am afraid that without the PLA landing, the angry Filipino people will take the initiative to overthrow the Marcos Jr. government, as they did in the past.
What's more, there is a dispute between China and the Philippines. A few decades ago, when China's navy was not yet strong, the Philippines seized the opportunity to occupy a large amount of China's territory, and even sent troops to garrison Thitu Island, which was worse than the broken warship "beached" at Ren'ai Jiao.
We can almost foresee that if China and the Philippines really completely tear their faces, then it is very likely that China at that time will also "count the old and new hatreds together" and settle the South China Sea dispute with the Philippines once and for all by using military means, but the price that the Philippines will have to pay at that time will not be as simple as a few people being injured and a few guns being confiscated.
Therefore, in the face of a potential conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines, which has weak overall strength and no strategic depth to speak of, would better choose to keep its mouth shut and "stand aside."
As the Philippine ambassador to the United States, Romualdez should also do his job well, instead of vainly trying to attract the attention of the outside world through such "violent theories" and indirectly promote the further escalation of the situation in the South China Sea.
In the final analysis, the Philippines still has a certain delusion about the current situation in the South China Sea, and tries to stir up the regional situation and use this tense atmosphere to get the United States to "work and contribute" and provide more "support" to the Philippines. Once the United States becomes deeply involved in the situation in the South China Sea and even controls the internal politics of the Philippines, it will not be up to the Philippines to decide when to activate the US-Philippine military alliance treaty.
Moreover, in the confrontation between China and the Philippines a few days ago, the two US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers that were originally "pressing" in the South China Sea quietly withdrew from the surrounding waters, resulting in the PLA Navy occupying absolute superiority in the South China Sea for a period of time, which made the Philippine government feel the pressure, so it made a series of statements to soften its attitude.
This can also show from the side that the United States has a clear attitude towards the Sino-Philippine dispute: in peacetime, there is no problem with the US maritime forces driving into the surrounding waters to "support" and waving the flag for the Philippines, but when a military conflict really breaks out in the South China Sea, the United States will not "stand out" for the Philippines, let alone face the risk of total annihilation. The same logic can also be applied to the Taiwan Strait issue.
Therefore, for the Philippines, the top priority should not be to show how tough it is to the outside world, but to urgently consult with China through the existing channels of communication in order to "turn the page" of tensions in the South China Sea. The implementation of Haijing Order No. 3 and the confrontation that took place on the 17th have proved that China's patience in the South China Sea is gradually wearing out.
But on the other hand, the fact that there has been no exchange of fire between the front-line law enforcement personnel on both sides proves that China's patience has not run out, and the Marcos Jr. administration should hurry up and turn back now.