On the evening of May 6, a strong convective red wave broke out in Guangdong, and violent short-term heavy rainfall fell everywhere it went. On the evening of May 6, there was a short-term heavy rainstorm of 31.8 mm in 10 minutes in Foshan, and the intensity of precipitation was close to the extreme rainstorm in Zhuhai on May 4, and the rainfall in 5 minutes at the automatic station in Panyu, Guangzhou was as high as 27.1 mm!
1. The appearance of the Pacific typhoon line
The resurgence of heavy rainstorms in South China shows that the Pacific Ocean is still very abundant in the south - the Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean in the world, and the abundant water vapor from the Pacific Ocean not only brings abundant precipitation to East Asia, but also forms typhoons every year, bringing violent storms and rain to the mainland. Every year, dozens of tropical cyclones occur in the Pacific Ocean, some of which develop into intense typhoons, causing great damage to coastal areas. So, what is the situation of typhoons in the Pacific this year, and are there any signs of new typhoons at present?
A typhoon is a type of tropical cyclone that is a rotating storm formed by warm, moist air over the ocean under the action of a center of low pressure. According to the latest news from the Central Meteorological Observatory, there is currently no typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea.
However, it is worth noting that in the supercomputer ensemble forecast, dense typhoon prediction lines have begun to appear east of the Philippines, and these typhoon lines do not necessarily develop into typhoons, but refer to the trend that may generate typhoons. Therefore, it is not yet certain whether these typhoon lines will be the first typhoon of the year, nor can it be determined whether their intensity and path will be determined.
2. Typhoon No. 1 is in the pipeline?
However, with a number of typhoon lines emerging east of the Philippines, it means that new typhoons are starting to brew in the region, and a new typhoon No. 1 may be on the horizon.
At present, there are disagreements between different numerical forecasts about the future Typhoon No. 1, with some forecasts suggesting that the new typhoon is weak and likely to approach the South China Sea, while others point out that Typhoon No. 1 will develop into a strong and large typhoon east of the Philippines in mid-May, but will gradually turn east of the Philippines and will not approach the mainland. In this way, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future of Typhoon No. 1, but the trend is increasing, and the 2024 western Pacific typhoon season will begin.
In summary, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the current typhoon forecast, and it is impossible to determine when and where the first typhoon of the year will occur, as well as its intensity and path. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the latest developments of typhoons, obtain authoritative information from meteorological departments in a timely manner, and take preventive and response measures. At the same time, we should also understand the formation conditions, development process and influencing factors of typhoons, enhance our meteorological knowledge and awareness, and improve our disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.