A-shares are still in the bull market window, and several conditions for the market to pick up - minimalist investment research

National Business Daily

2024-06-01 19:47Published on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

In May, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index were all the first monthly K-line negative lines after the monthly K-line was three consecutive positives. For many investors, it's like the sky is falling. Xiao Er thinks that it is not necessary, we are still in the bull market window, but the current market recovery needs several conditions, and these conditions will arrive late.

When did the downsizing start?

Now everyone generally feels that the persistence of hot spots is poor, and the characteristics of "electric fans" are obvious, with multiple hot spots rotating a day, and most of them end within a day. In this kind of market, only quantitative funds have room to move (T+0 or cross-market hedging), so everyone naturally sprinkles their anger on quantitative funds.

However, as everyone knows, the performance of quantitative funds is not satisfactory in the case of shrinking turnover. Xiao Er randomly checked 70 of the 424 funds with "quantitative" names on the Tiantian Fund website, and found that the net value of 61 "quantitative" funds in the past month has declined, as shown in the following figure:

Therefore, Xiao Er believes that the current transaction atmosphere at the level of 700 billion yuan has had a negative impact on all kinds of funds.

So, when did the shrinkage begin? Let's take a look at the following diagram:

Since May 6, the overall turnover of A-shares and the turnover of northbound funds have declined significantly. At present, the turnover has returned to the level of January. At the index level, only the STAR 50 Index returned to the level of January, and the other major indices remained firm.

In Xiao Er's impression, the logic of the speculation in the large-scale market from the end of April to the beginning of May is the annual report speculation + real estate policy + consumption recovery. Now after the fact, in the market in May, the annual report speculation landed, the real estate policy increased, and the consumption data was low, and the meaning of cashing was indeed very strong.

However, I believe that many friends are as unwilling as Xiao Er. Therefore, there were also many blockbuster events in May, such as the expectation of mergers and acquisitions of brokerages, the third phase of large funds, etc., but these events still did not make the market pick up, which is a little regrettable.

What is the market worried about?

What everyone is worried about, Xiao Er really doesn't know, but Xiao Er has his own worries, you may wish to refer to the following:

1. Concerns about the Fed's monetary policy

Entering June, the predictions of the Fed cutting interest rates will enter the fulfillment period. In the first half of the year, you can also use the expectation of "interest rate cut in the second half of the year" to play the amount of advance, but the current situation shows that the probability of interest rate cut this year is getting smaller.

New York Fed President Williams made it clear on Thursday that he sees "ample evidence" that monetary policy is dampening the economy, adding that inflation will continue to fall in the second half of the year, but at the same time saying that rate hikes are unlikely.

Xiao Er believes that if everyone changes from "interest rate cut expectations" to "interest rate cuts fail", funds will show marginal contraction, which is not conducive to the entry of incremental funds in A-shares.

2. Concerns about the recovery of property data

Since May 17, the real estate ushered in an epic policy benefit, and all parts of the country have begun to implement supporting facilities. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, more than 200 cities have clearly issued policy documents to implement the 15% down payment ratio for the first home, more than 250 cities have clearly cancelled the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and more than eighty percent of cities have implemented a new round of real estate financial policies.

In mid-June, the "full moon" of the new real estate policy, we don't know what the effect is, and whether the recovery is in line with market expectations are all the points that Xiao Er is worried about.

3. Leaving the city

According to the statistics of the Economic Observer, from April 12 to May 31, 39 listed companies in the whole market were issued other risk warnings, that is, ST; There are 56 listed companies that have been subject to ST superimposed delisting risk warning, that is, *ST; There are 33 listed companies that have made relevant announcements that may be terminated from listing.

This is the point that Xiao Er is most worried about at the moment. Although the focus of this year's research is mainly on the dividend assets of central enterprises, and the probability of stepping on thunder is very low, the expanding delisting team is eroding the confidence of investors.

The above three main concerns may be some of the many reasons for the current sluggish market turnover. However, worries are worries, and Xiao Er believes that we are still in the bull market window, but there are phased short-term divergences.

Several conditions for the market to recover

1. Do not break, do not stand

What is said here is not broken or standing, mainly emotions. Turning over the sentiment treasure data, we will see that the market sentiment value is bottoming out, and there is still a little distance from the "sentiment bottom". Judging from the law, it may be necessary to go down to the "bottom range of sentiment" before the market will pick up again. Now that the turnover has returned to the bottom level, it is not emotional.

2. Risk clearance

The risk mentioned here is mainly the liquidation of individual stocks. After June, the market will enter the "interim reporting window", and a number of "problem companies" will be cleared at that time, and the remaining companies will naturally enjoy the valuation premium brought by the sense of security.

Finally, Xiao Er wants to say that the market is only an adjustment after the monthly K-line is three consecutive yangs, and this monthly K-line combination will only be enjoyed under the bull market window in history.

If you want to find a historical script, from the perspective of northbound funds, the current market is particularly like the "huddle 1.0" script. What remains unchanged is the low-key purchase of northbound funds, and what has changed is that "core assets" have become "bonus assets".

(Little Second Brother)

The content of this article is for reference only and is not intended as an investment basis.

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