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India has given the United States two options: either abandon sanctions against India or be defeated by China

author:Professor Zheng Jiyong

A few days ago, Indian media published an article threatening the United States, saying that the United States needs to stop trying to intimidate everyone, including its allies, through sanctions. The reason why India has such a "voice for justice" is also due to the Chabahar port agreement between India and Iran.

India has given the United States two options: either abandon sanctions against India or be defeated by China

[India and Iran reached a consensus on the development of Chabahar port]

In mid-May this year, Iran and India signed a 10-year contract to hand over the port of Chabahar to India for development and operation, with a total contract value of $370 million. For India, the port of Chabahar, located in the Gulf of Oman, is undoubtedly very important:

On the one hand, with the Chabahar port, India can avoid dealing with Pakistan and can ship goods first to Iran and then to resource-rich landlocked countries such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and even Russia via the rail or road network; Moreover, Afghanistan has long relied heavily on the Pakistani port of Karachi for transshipment of goods, and it also wants to find a suitable alternative outside Pakistan, and the joint launch of Iran and India has become the best alternative. And for India, exerting influence on Afghanistan can play the role of beating Pakistan.

On the other hand, the port of Chabahar is an important part of the North-South Transport Corridor, the so-called "International North-South Transport Corridor" refers to the direct land passage from the Indian Ocean coast to Europe through Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. Once established, the port will be able to connect western Indian ports to land corridors through combined sea and land transport, and then connect major cities such as Mumbai, India's financial center, and Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, through Iran, providing India with a cheaper and faster trade route with Central Asia.

India has given the United States two options: either abandon sanctions against India or be defeated by China

[U.S. threatens to impose sanctions on India]

On top of that, the port is also an important part of India's "countering China" plan, just over 100 kilometers east of the port is the Gwadar port, which has been upgraded by Chinese developers for about $1.62 billion since 2015. The Indian side has repeatedly claimed that obtaining the right to operate the port will effectively "balance" China's influence in the region.

However, this cooperation between India and Iran has made the United States very dissatisfied. Shortly after news of the port agreement broke, a deputy spokesman for the U.S. State Department warned that any entity considering a commercial transaction with Iran was at risk of being sanctioned; He said that "U.S. sanctions against Iran remain in effect, and Washington will continue to enforce them." The subtext is undoubtedly a warning to India that cooperating with Iran could lead to sanctions.

Although India has established close economic and military ties with the United States in recent decades, this does not mean that the United States will "hold India high" because of this. In recent years, with the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the deterioration of relations between the two countries, the United States has continuously increased its sanctions, and in the past three years alone, the United States has imposed more than 600 sanctions on Iran-related entities.

India has given the United States two options: either abandon sanctions against India or be defeated by China

[Gwadar Port is only more than 100 kilometers away from Chabahar Port]

For Iran, on the one hand, as an international transshipment port, Chabahar Port can become an important node of Iran's transportation network, which is conducive to Iran breaking the blockade and broadening economic and social exchanges. Moreover, it can cooperate with the Gwadar port to expand the scope of Iran's foreign trade; On the other hand, the development of the port in cooperation with India could also create another link between Central Asia and Afghanistan. Naturally, this is something that the United States does not want to see, so at the risk of offending India, the United States will also take action to prevent India-Iraq cooperation.

For India, the US sanctions on Iran have already dealt a heavy blow to India, such as the US sanctions on Iranian oil, which has affected India's oil supply and has to spend more time and cost to build oil trade with other countries. Now that the United States has taken action on the Chabahar port, which India attaches the most importance to, India naturally cannot bear it.

In the article published by the Indian media, in addition to asking the United States to stop sanctions, it also specifically mentioned that India is the "only country capable of confronting China" in the entire Indo-Pacific region, and the US sanctions against India will only allow China to "take over" at this important strategic point. The message is clear: the United States will either abandon sanctions on Iran's Indian port deal, or it will face defeat by China.

India has given the United States two options: either abandon sanctions against India or be defeated by China

[The leading power of the development of Chabahar port is in the hands of Iran]

I have to say that the hat that India has put on itself is really high enough, but in fact, even without the obstruction of the United States, it will be difficult for India's Chabahar port project to really achieve results, let alone "fight in the ring" with China. There are two reasons for this:

First of all, the infrastructure and transportation around the port is still in the preliminary stage, if India wants to make the port play a big role, it must first improve its surrounding facilities, which is far from being able to do with an investment of 370 million US dollars.

Second, the strategic dominance of the port is in the hands of Iran, and India only has partial use and development rights, which means that New Delhi must consider Tehran's opinion when weighing, otherwise its plan is likely to be "vetoed" by Iran, and the current Sino-Iranian relations are steadily advancing, and Iran is unlikely to damage its relations with China because of a port.

All in all, it is their own business for India and the United States to engage in internal strife, and it is really unnecessary to insist on involving China, not to mention that China's development of the Gwadar port is not for the purpose of competing with India.

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