A few days ago, both Russia and India confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia. #军史观察团#
Considering that India has maintained close visits to Russia for a long time, it is not surprising that such high-level diplomacy between Russia and India is actually not surprising. In contrast, the general focus of attention is still on how Russia balances its relationship with China and India.
Based on this background, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's recent remarks are undoubtedly somewhat intriguing.
Recently, Lavrov also issued an invitation to China and India, saying that Russia has plans to convene trilateral talks between China and India.
According to Lavrov, Russia put forward such a proposal more than a year ago, and a very important reason why the tripartite talks between China, Russia, and India have not been able to take shape for a long time is that India has set a condition.
India believes that if the three countries want to get together for a meeting, they first need to resolve the border issue.
Of course, strictly speaking, this condition of India can basically be regarded as India's established position. For example, after Modi's re-election, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar also said that in China-India relations, they will focus on resolving the border issue.
In other words, the China-India border issue is not only an obstacle to the trilateral talks between China, Russia and India, but also for the development of China-India relations.
But the problem is that the Indian side has not been sincere in solving the problem.
Despite the Modi government's current rhetoric of wanting to resolve the border issue with China, he made a high-profile visit to southern Tibet on the mainland on the eve of India's general election. Public opinion believes that Modi's move cannot be ruled out as an attempt to continue to incite domestic populist sentiment and boost votes.
As for why Modi's attitude has softened after his re-election, presumably the main concern is that it will affect the economic and trade cooperation between China and India. The nearly $120 billion trade volume between China and India in 2023 is there, something Modi does not want to lose.
For Modi, he still has a lot of leverage on the border. For example, India's export of missiles to the Philippines and interaction with Lai Qingde on social platforms should be the bargaining chips that Modi has prepared for the Sino-Indian border negotiations.
Therefore, it is very difficult for China, Russia, and India to get together for a meeting, and the problem is not the Sino-Indian border issue at all, but the Indian side's lack of sincerity and attitude to solve the problem.
Given Russia's close relationship with India, we believe that the Russian side cannot be unclear about what the Modi government is doing.
But it is in this context that Lavrov understands India's conditions.
Although we cannot regard Lavrov's statement as a kind of "taking sides", in the literal sense, the Russian side is tantamount to putting pressure on China. Translated into this, the Russian side hopes that China and Russia will resolve the border issue as soon as possible, so as to facilitate trilateral talks between China, Russia and India.
However, we believe that Russia can still handle this sensitive issue. In any case, it is unlikely that Russia will create some noise that is not conducive to Sino-Russian relations in order to win over India.
Taking a comparison of the trade volume between China and Russia and that of India and Russia last year, the trade volume between Russia and India is less than a quarter of that between China and Russia. At present, the West is still pressing on Russia step by step, and Russia has no reason to choose between China and India at this time, especially to offend China.
We speculate that Lavrov said something that India wants to hear at this time, and it cannot be ruled out that it is intended to create a better atmosphere for Modi's visit, so as to push Russia and India to reach more cooperation agreements on armed equipment and energy, etc., which is in Russia's interests.
Of course, considering that China recently invited Poland to visit China, and Poland has long maintained a tough stance on Russia. In a sense, this may also be a way for Russia to express its dissatisfaction.
But it is clear that Russia has actually mastered the proportions. If we don't grasp the words, the main point of Lavrov's statement is that Russia wants to organize a meeting between China, Russia and India. In other words, Russia still wants to play the role of peacemaker, and it can persuade if it can.
As for whether Modi will create noise in Sino-Indian relations during his visit, it is unlikely that he will create a murmur.
Whether it is India's previous absence from the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting or Sullivan's recent visit to India, there have been some problems between India and Russia. The fact that Russia and India are so close, but Putin did not visit India after his re-election, speaks for itself.
Then, Modi's visit to Russia this time may also bring some hints of making amends. Russia wants to maintain some kind of balance between China and India, and India wants to maintain some kind of balance between Russia and the West. Based on such an established position, Russia and India may talk about cooperation in depth, but it is unlikely that they will talk too much about China-related issues.
In general, Russia's desire to mediate between China and India may be well-intentioned, but the border issue cannot be resolved by China alone. Moreover, there is no shortage of platforms for cooperation between China, Russia and India, whether it is the SCO or the BRICS mechanism, as long as India is willing, the three countries can also get together to discuss some key issues.