Recently, Indian media revealed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to visit Moscow in early July and meet with Putin. It is not unusual for Russia and India to hold a summit meeting. India has maintained very close diplomatic relations with Russia since its independence after World War II. India is one of the largest buyers of Russian arms, and Russia also wants to establish good relations with India.
When the SCO was first established, there was actually no India, and it was only with the strong support of Russia that it decided to admit India as a full member. However, considering the timing of the Modi visit hyped by India and Russia, it can be seen that the situation is not quite right. Modi's visit is not so much a further push for Russian-Indian relations as a remedy for a series of previous actions that have alienated Russia.
I say this because of three things. The first thing is that the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held, and almost all member countries sent ministers or even higher-level officials to attend, only India was a "special case", and Jaishankar did not come at all, but only appointed a secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to do a perfunctory matter.
Putin, Modi
Russia is the rotating chair of the BRICS this year and the host of the BRICS series of summits, and Modi's doing such a thing undoubtedly makes Putin lose face. The second thing, the Indian media "The Hindu" broke a new news, saying that Modi may also be absent from the SCO summit held in Kazakhstan on July 3 this year because of "itinerary conflicts".
This summit will probably be attended by high-level Chinese and Russian leaders, and if Modi does not show up for some reason, it is undoubtedly an act of "demolition". Thirdly, shortly after Modi's re-election, US Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited India. With the saber-rattling relations between Russia and the United States, it is strange that Russia has no problem with this.
Under such circumstances, Modi's urgent visit to Russia smacks of remediation. However, it is not too late to make amends, but it will be difficult for Russian-Indian relations to be "mended", because Modi and Putin have gone further and further down two different paths. Modi's choice of the path for India is to get close to the United States and the West, play the "anti-China card", and draw a clear line with the vast number of third world countries.
G7 Summit
In June, just after Modi was given a third term and completed his government, he immediately did something very abstract. India has always boasted of being a third world power and the leader of the "Global South", but it has ignored the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting and actively went to the G7 summit hosted by the United States and the West to show off.
And Putin's choice of path is in stark contrast to Modi's. After winning the 2024 election, Putin broke the past practice of Russian leaders "looking westward" and giving preference to CIS countries or Caucasian countries for their first visit, flew directly to Beijing on a plane, and issued a joint statement with China that was more than 10,000 words long.
To sum up, it is the general trend that China and Russia are getting closer and closer, while India is on the anti-China road and will not look back. Of course, theoretically speaking, relations between Russia and India and third countries should not affect normal exchanges between the two countries. However, objectively speaking, against the backdrop of the increasingly fierce international game, it is very difficult for Russia and India to get rid of the third country and talk about developing relations.
Putin's visit to China
On the one hand, in a short period of time, at least until the United States abandons its strategic plan to simultaneously suppress China and Russia, the strategic interests of China and Russia are highly aligned. Under such circumstances, India's dismantling of China's Taiwan is actually the dismantling of Russia's Taiwan. And to put it bluntly, with Russia's situation, it is basically difficult for Putin to appear in multilateral diplomatic occasions without China's endorsement.
If Modi insists on being anti-China, there will only be fewer and fewer opportunities for engagement with Russia in the future. The Russian foreign minister openly stated that the Russian side recently proposed to hold a meeting between China, Russia and India, but the Indian side demanded that the Sino-Indian border issue be resolved in an all-round way, which led to the stagnation of work.
On the other hand, the strategic interests of Russia and the United States are highly opposed. Between Russia and NATO, it is not an exaggeration to say that it is now in a state of quasi-war. Any cooperation between the United States and India will shake the already precarious relationship of trust between Russia and India. As a result, although Russia and India have maintained good interaction on the surface, they may have been able to achieve very little substantive cooperation.
China, Russia and India
As soon as the news of Modi's visit to Russia was announced, the United States warned that India-Russia relations would hinder India-US cooperation. Therefore, if Russia and India want to truly improve their relations, it does not depend on how many times Modi flies to Moscow, but whether India can let go of its knots, stop treating China as an imaginary enemy, and develop "good-neighborly and friendly relations."
This point is difficult to say, and it is not difficult to say that it is not difficult. It is difficult to say because the Hindu nationalism instigated by Modi doomed him to be unable to sit down with China and talk calmly in a short period of time. Modi won a third term in India's general election this year, but the BJP did not get an absolute majority in parliament, showing a significant decline compared to the previous two terms.
Nationalism is Modi's last card to consolidate power, so he will definitely not let go of China, a useful "target". It is not difficult to say because the road taken by India is doomed to a dead end, and sooner or later it will have to turn back. The reason for this is simple: the United States and India now, apart from "emotional value", have nothing practical to offer each other.
Bijiri
The United States is trying to woo India in order to pretend that it has a bargaining chip in its hand that can deal with China; India is moving closer to the United States in order to pretend that it can deal with China. Sullivan went to India to talk about military cooperation and security cooperation, and the joint statement issued was a big deal, but the problem is that because of the "institutional advantage" of the United States, Biden's promises don't count, let alone Sullivan.
The United States dragged Britain and Australia into "Aukus," but as a result, the US Congress delayed the nuclear submarine transfer agreement for more than two years on the grounds of technical secrecy. According to the latest roadmap released by the United States, Britain and Australia, even if everything goes well, Australia will have to wait until after 2040 to get nuclear submarines.
If nuclear technology is too sensitive, let's talk about another country, Turkey. At that time, because the purchase of the Patriot system failed, Turkey angrily placed an order for the S400 system from Russia, and then it was excluded from the F35 project by the United States. If the United States is still doing this to the "Five Eyes" countries and NATO members, it is conceivable what treatment India will receive.
At the same time, India has very little to offer the United States. Modi's advocacy of "Make in India" has resulted in a decrease in the share of manufacturing in India's GDP. For a country like India, which has not completed even the most basic land reforms, it is almost impossible to replace China in the global supply chain.
Moreover, the Hindu nationalist line pursued by Modi is also "incompatible" with the United States. Mr. Modi has already begun cross-border assassinations of Sikh leaders in the United States and Canada, and the closer the two countries go, the more similar contradictions will become.
Therefore, US-Indian cooperation is destined to fall into a vicious circle in one attempt after another and one failure after another, and it is almost inevitable that it will "break up" in the end. And both China and Russia have plenty of time and confidence to wait to see the big fun that comes out after the United States and India tear their faces.
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