"The global plug-in has entered the Chinese moment! Plug-in hybrid will further accelerate the process of switching from oil to electricity in the automobile market, and will further impact the fuel vehicle market! ”
As Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, emotionally shouted the above words, the pressure was once again given to the fuel car that was "lingering", "the fuel car really cried and fainted in the toilet", some people said.
On May 28, 2024, BYD released the fifth-generation DM technology, and stood on the stage with three "world's most" to introduce the technology - the world's highest engine thermal efficiency of 46.06%, the world's lowest fuel consumption of 2.9L per 100 kilometers, and the world's longest comprehensive range of 2,100 kilometers.
On the same day that BYD unveiled its fifth-generation DM technology, Toyota, together with Subaru and Mazda, unveiled a new gasoline engine technology for electrification in Japan. Officially, the technology can reduce the engine volume by 10%-20%, increase thermal efficiency by 30%, adapt to diesel-electric hybrid and plug-in hybrid, and "will be mass-produced soon".
BYD and Toyota, the new "kings" and original "godfathers" in the hybrid industry, belong to the two camps of new energy and traditional cars. In the Chinese market in the past two years, the new "king" plug-in gangsters are almost beating the original "godfather" oil gangsters can no longer find the north.
The rapid development of plug-in hybrids (sales in the A-class and above passenger car market have surpassed that of pure electric vehicles) have achieved the counterattack and glory of Chinese auto brands. First, it has ravaged the market share of joint venture brand fuel vehicles, and the domestic market share of joint venture brands has reached less than 30%; In addition, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China has reached a new high of 47%, and it continues to grow.
A few months ago, Wang Chuanfu predicted, he said: "In the next 3-5 years, the market share of joint venture brands will drop to 10%."
Whether Wang Dong's prophecy can be fulfilled will be proved by time, however, the "plug-in hybrid real fragrance" was "sluggish" foreigners have also seen, Toyota's launch of new engine technology, plus GM, Volkswagen and other joint venture brands have also begun to launch and will soon launch plug-in hybrid models, these actions seem to be outlining a new situation - the original independent joint venture, plug-in hybrid fuel "annihilation war", or will be transformed into independent and joint venture full participation in the plug-in hybrid "battle".
At that time, fuel vehicles may no longer be relevant to the war situation, but for pure electric vehicles, will there be a risk of being burned by the spread of the war?
Someone gave another perspective: pure electric vehicles are the ones that tremble.
How did the plug-in become a "fragrant bait"
In the past, the protagonist and topic of China's automobile electrification was undoubtedly pure electric, and when it comes to plug-in hybrid, because it is not pure enough, with an "oily smell", it must be a little behind. However, after experiencing a continuous growth since 2021, the status of plug-in has changed, let's take a look at a set of data:
From 2021 to 2023, domestic pure electric vehicle sales were: (2021) 2.916 million units, a year-on-year increase of 160%; (2022) 5.365 million units, a year-on-year increase of 81.6%; (2023) 6.685 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%.
During the same period, the sales of plug-in hybrid models were: (2021) 577,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 171.2%; (2022) 1.518 million units, a year-on-year increase of 150%; (2023) 2.804 million units, up 84.7% y/y.
By the first five months of 2024, the sales of pure electric vehicles will be 1.932 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid models was 1.324 million units, a year-on-year increase of 70.1%.
Obviously, in the past three years, the volume of pure electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market is the largest, but the sales growth rate has slowed down significantly year by year. On the contrary, plug-in hybrid sales have increased significantly year by year, and the growth rate has been maintained at a high level.
The industry has always believed that there are several reasons for the weak growth rate of pure electric vehicles and the continuous rise of plug-in hybrids: one is battery life and energy supplement, and the other is price. Range and the convenience of charging are the biggest obstacles to the popularity of electric vehicles, and the price directly determines whether consumers open their wallets.
In recent years, plug-in hybrid sales have grown rapidly, which is nothing more than the excellent comprehensive mileage performance of hot-selling models, which not only enjoys the same energy replenishment conditions as pure electric, but also has one more fuel tank than pure electric and one more guarantee, and at the same time, the fuel consumption of electric power is getting lower and lower, and the plug-in hybrid version of many models is cheaper than the pure electric version.
The cheaper price not only makes the plug-in hybrid of brands and models such as BYD Qin, Song, Tang, and Denza D9 sell better than pure electric, but also is a magic weapon to seize the joint venture brand fuel vehicle market, especially when "electricity is lower than oil" in terms of both the cost of buying and using.
In this way, it is not difficult to understand why the plug-in will become a "sweet and sweet", because in most cases, the user's real money will definitely be invested in what he thinks is most beneficial to him.
Is it "transitional" or "mainstream"
Today's popularity of plug-in hybrids must have confused many people, because the industry has been accustomed to hearing the argument that plug-in hybrids are just "pure electric foreshadowing" and "transitional products" for a long time, especially before 2021.
However, today's plug-in hybrid is like a bamboo, people began to plug-in hybrid to the "mainstream" name, the industry is circulating plug-in hybrid will occupy 40% of the market share in the next 2-3 years or by 2030 prediction, said that the Chinese auto market will form 40% hybrid, 30% pure electric, 30% fuel "433" structure. If this prediction comes true, it proves that the plug-in gangster is about to sit on the "mainstream position", and it is the "big mainstream".
But is plug-in hybrid a "transitional product" for new energy vehicles? Objectively speaking, it used to be (at least that's how it was set at the policy level), and it is difficult to say in the future (pulling the timeline longer than the big guys predicted).
From the national "863" plan in 2001 to put forward "three vertical and three horizontal", to 2009 "ten cities and thousands of vehicles", and then to the release of the "energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry development plan (2012-2020)" in 2012, plug-in hybrid has gradually been clarified as one of the forms of new energy vehicles, it is not difficult to understand the country's good intentions to encourage traditional fuel vehicle companies to transition from plug-in hybrid to pure electric - for the foundation of traditional internal combustion engine technology, at least do not have to bear the burden and waste of complete abandonment of transformation.
However, not all traditional car companies have made good use of this "transition product", when car companies are faced with the collapse of plug-in hybrid technology when switching from oil to electricity, when Tesla and other star new forces bring the halo of all in pure electricity, people and the market are far more enthusiastic and sought after than plug-in hybrid.
This created a situation in which Wang Chuanfu "thought that the plug-in hybrid technology could usher in a highlight moment in 2018, but on the contrary, consumers did not buy it", and declined in 2019, and it was not until 2021 that the plug-in hybrid technology started to skyrocket.
However, Wang Chuanfu firmly predicted at the Electric Vehicle 100 Conference in January 2018 that "plug-in hybrid will be the mainstream of private cars in the future", and still insisted on conquering plug-in hybrid technology in the subsequent market downturn, which now seems to be an extremely wise decision.
Similarly, Great Wall, Geely, SAIC, Chery, Changan and other major car companies have been deeply engaged in the hybrid field, and have launched plug-in hybrid technology and platforms since the end of 2020 and continuously upgraded their measures, which have also laid a key foundation for each to occupy a place in the plug-in hybrid market today.
Therefore, regardless of whether today's plug-in is just a "transition" in the future, the most important thing is to face up to the current life-and-death challenges. The auto market in 2024 will be turbulent and involuted, in the words of many car company leaders: "It has entered the stage of life and death knockout".
If you compare what Li Xueyong, general manager of Chery Marketing Company, said: "Fuel determines survival, hybrid determines life and death, and trams determine the future", then it is time for car companies to enter the plug-in hybrid market and start hand-to-hand combat.
Can pure electricity still work?
Nowadays, in addition to the traditional car companies of their own brands, joint venture brands such as SAIC-GM, Dongfeng Nissan, and SAIC Volkswagen have also launched or are about to launch plug-in hybrid models, and even pure electric brands such as Zeekr, Xiaopeng, GAC Aion, and Xiaomi have also expressed their intention to push plug-in hybrid models.
Perhaps so far, only Tesla and NIO have not expressed their intention to plug in the hybrid or extend the range in the domestic market, and the domestic auto market has officially entered the "big era" of hybrid.
In the plug-in hybrid market, the cruel competition and involution have also quietly opened, the most typical embodiment is as mentioned at the beginning of this article BYD's fifth-generation DM technology brought by the three "world's most" - yes, around the plug-in hybrid "higher engine thermal efficiency", "lower fuel consumption" and directly aimed at more than 2000 kilometers of "longer endurance", is becoming the hottest involution direction of the plug-in hybrid market.
Just before BYD released the fifth-generation DM technology of "engine thermal efficiency of 46.06%, fuel consumption of 2.9L per 100 kilometers, and comprehensive range of 2100 kilometers", many car companies have started their own plug-in hybrid models on low fuel consumption and 2000 kilometers of extreme range measurement challenges.
For example, SAIC Roewe D7 DMH, Dongfeng Fengshen L7, Chery Xingtu Star Era ET, and Chery Fengyun A8 Voyage Edition all said that the actual range exceeded or approached 2,000 kilometers in the measured challenge. Geely also said that the upcoming next-generation electric hybrid system will have a maximum comprehensive range of more than 2,000 kilometers.
These dimensions of the competition of car companies are also "vigorously miracles" - the realization of 2000 kilometers of endurance is inseparable from the credit of large fuel tanks and large battery packs. The BYD Qin L DM-i is equipped with a large fuel tank of 50 liters and a battery pack of 15.87 kWh, and the BYD Seal 06 DM-i is a large fuel tank of 65 liters; The Dongfeng Fengshen L7 has a large fuel tank of 55 liters and a battery pack of 30.2 kWh, while the fuel tank of the Chery Xingtuxing Era ET is larger to 67 liters and the battery pack reaches 32 kWh.
The configuration of the super-large fuel tank of plug-in hybrid vehicles also makes the industry full of questions: "Is it larger than the fuel tank of fuel vehicles, or is it new energy?" ”
We don't dwell on this problem, but we can see another problem: when plug-in hybrids provide longer range and lower fuel consumption, it is not only gasoline vehicles that will be hit hard, but pure electric vehicles will also lose their competitiveness more and more.
In the pure electric range and energy supplement anxiety has not been completely improved, plug-in hybrid consumers use more electricity but still need a fuel tank to strengthen the sense of security, plug-in hybrid is cheaper than pure electric in the same model, these reasons can not be reversed, pure electric must go through a bumpy stage experienced by plug-in hybrid in the past.
The market is a baton, and the choice of consumers will inevitably determine the inclination of enterprise resources, which is understandable and reasonable. However, just like BYD, which is still insisting on technology iteration when the call for plug-in hybrids is sluggish, pure electric brands should not lose their way in the current competitive pressure.
Although no one can say what the ultimate form of new energy vehicles will be in the future, pure electric or something else? However, from the perspective of our national policies, pure electric market demand and technical reserves, the pure electric field is still a stage worthy of continuous competition and brilliance.