Original author: @OlimpioCrypto
Original text: twitter
Compilation: Vernacular blockchain
BLAST's tokenomics model has been released, with an estimated supply of 100 million coins and 10 trillion credits, how much might it be worth?
This article will discuss Blast's FDV scenario, gold coin valuation, and airdrop estimates, plus... Why don't we talk about sybils?
To recap: Blast announced its total supply of 100 billion. 17% of the supply goes to S1 airdrops, 7% to gold, 7% to credits, and 3% to Blur farmers.
1. Points and Tokens
So: all gold coins will receive 7 billion Blast tokens, and all points will also receive 7 billion Blast tokens. We don't have an official supply of points and gold, but some estimates are around 80-10 billion gold (considering recommendations). As a pessimistic scenario, let's assume a supply of 100,000,000,000 gold.
With a total supply of 100 million gold, each GOLD is equivalent to 70 $BLAST. (7000000,000 airdrop / 100000,000 total gold supply) = 70 Blast per BOLD.
And what about points?
Blast's official website shows the relationship between gold coins and points: "20,483 gold coins will receive an airdrop equal to 2224255462 points"
This means that 1 gold coin = 108,590 points.
If we take a total of 100 million gold coins as a basis, we can estimate the total point supply at → 10859000,000000 (1080000000 points)
Keep in mind that the points will receive 7 billion tokens, so each point is approximately equal to 0.00064463 $BLAST.
100,000 points = 64.46 $BLAST.
Now we estimate (pessimistically) the following relationship:
1枚GOLD = 70 $BLAST
100,000 points = 65 $BLAST
So, how much might Blast be worth?
2. BLAST price scenario
Looking at the BLAST price scenario and comparing it to Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling scheme, we can see that if Blast outperforms all of them on 10 billion FDV, the token price will be $0.10.
Arbitrum is the largest Layer 2 scaling solution with the highest total value locked (TVL) and the largest FDV. If Blast had the same FDV, the token price would be $0.083.
Optimism is the second largest Tier 2 scaling solution, with an FDV of $7.6 billion, although it has a total value locked (TVL) of $678 million. If Blast had the same FDV as Optimism, the token price would be $0.076.
BLAST Token空投价格情景：
Blast Ecstasy → 10,000,000 points = $650
Blast Moderate → 100 coins = $325
Blast Pessimistic → 100 coins = $130
Remember, this is just entertainment, and we set the scenario based on guesswork.
1) We are not sure of the total supply of gold (the basis of this topic).
2) We don't know how the market will price Blast in relation to its competitors.
3) We don't know if the relationship between gold coins and points will remain the same.
These are unknowns, so the above scenario is just speculation.
3. Summary
Overall (aside from the unfortunate market conditions), I think this airdrop was executed very well. There is no discussion of counterfeiter attacks. Through tokens, small wallets and users are able to participate.
We don't talk about counterfeiter attacks, because farmers have to do real work (tokens) or real ones.