► Central Bank: It is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced; Promote a moderate recovery in prices and keep prices at a reasonable level; In the process of economic recovery, it is also necessary to pay attention to changes in long-term yields. Smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of capital use. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, implement comprehensive policies, correct deviations, stabilize expectations, resolutely correct pro-cyclical behavior, prevent the formation of unilateral consensus expectations and self-reinforcement, and resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot.
► China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: In May, the domestic market shipped 30.329 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, of which 25.531 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, accounting for 84.2% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.
► Financial Breakfast: Hot Spots, Track What You Want to Hear. Looking back on the first half of the year, how did the market perform as a whole? What are the characteristics of the market? Which sector stands out and is the "king of gainers" year-to-date? Friends of the wealth, quickly go to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking #A-share market review in the first half of the year
Macroeconomic
1. President Xi Jinping: China is planning and implementing major measures to further deepen reform in an all-round way, continue to expand institutional opening-up, and form a more market-oriented, rule-of-law and international business environment. China will set up a Global South Research Center and provide 1,000 Scholarships for Excellence in the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence to countries in the Global South in the next five years. Between now and 2030, China's cumulative imports from developing countries are expected to exceed US$8 trillion.
2. Foreign Exchange Bureau: In May, China's foreign exchange market totaled 23.89 trillion yuan. Among them, the bank-to-customer market turnover was 3.16 trillion yuan, and the interbank market turnover was 20.72 trillion yuan.
3. Energy Bureau: As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was about 3.04 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 690 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 52.2%; The installed capacity of wind power was about 460 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%.
4. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments: issued an announcement on increasing the duty-free allowance for luggage carried by resident passengers entering from Hong Kong and Macao, and for resident passengers entering from Hong Kong and Macao who have reached the age of 18, and carry reasonable personal luggage and articles obtained abroad, with a total value of less than 12,000 yuan (including 12,000 yuan), they will be released duty-free.
5. CCTV News: On the evening of June 27, local time in the United States, the first TV debate of the 2024 U.S. presidential election was held in Atlanta with the participation of Democratic President Biden and Republican former President Trump. The debate lasted about 90 minutes, and the two debated on the economy, immigration, abortion, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli situation.
Real estate dynamics
1. Shenzhen, Guangdong Province: From June 17 to June 23, 1,362 second-hand houses (including self-service) were recorded in the city, an increase of 4% month-on-month. The trend of second-hand housing recorded in the week showed three consecutive increases, and once again hit a new high in the past three years, the property market policy has changed the previous "immediate" effect, and its immediate incentive effect is slowing down, and the duration of the time still needs to be observed.
2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority: In May, the number of new loan applications decreased by 16.1% month-on-month from April to 8,077; Mortgage loans approved increased by 8.8% QOQ to HK$31.6 billion.
3. Yuxi City, Yunnan Province: Effective July 29, 2024. If both husband and wife of the borrower have paid the housing provident fund in full for more than 6 consecutive months (inclusive), the maximum amount of personal housing loan of the housing provident fund shall be adjusted from 600,000 yuan to 1 million yuan; The maximum loan amount for the first home of a family with three children or more can reach 1.3 million yuan.
Stock market stock
1. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2967.40 points, up 0.73%, with a turnover of 313.347 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 8848.70 points, down 0.01%, with a turnover of 389.910 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1683.43 points, down 1.16%, with a turnover of 189.088 billion. Overall, more than 3,000 stocks rose in the whole market, and the turnover of the two cities was 703.2 billion, an increase of 76.9 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, consumer electronics, national defense and military industry, precious metals, communication equipment and other industries are among the top gainers; Securities, media, real estate services, beverage manufacturing and other industries were among the top decliners.
2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.01% to 17,718.61 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.96% to 3,554.45 points. The state-owned enterprises index rose 0.12% to 6,331.86 points. On the disk, comprehensive telecommunication services, electricity, semiconductors, assisted reproduction, environmental protection, solar energy, oil stocks and other sectors were among the top gainers; Automobiles, household appliances, innovative drugs, real estate services, CXO concepts and other sectors were among the top decliners. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$3.662 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought HK $1.427 billion, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought HK $2.235 billion.
3. As of June 28, there were 249 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on that day. The total market value was 309.414 billion yuan, and the transaction value was 2.674 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of June 27, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 770.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.797 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 684.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.592 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1454.494 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.389 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
5. CITIC Securities: The downstream demand for vitamins is rigid, and the cost proportion is very low, so it has full price elasticity. Although there is an oversupply and demand in the vitamin industry, the high concentration makes supply-side fluctuations easily affect product prices. Recently, under the influence of multiple factors such as the increase in raw material costs, supply contraction, the increase in demand for replenishment in overseas markets, and the rigid demand of the downstream feed industry, it is judged that vitamins may be expected to enter a new round of price increase cycle, and it is recommended to focus on K3, VD3, VE and other categories of vitamins.
6. Finance Associated Press: In the first half of the year, the market as a whole fell more and rose less, not counting the situation of new shares, A-shares fell by nearly 20.6% on average, of which 792 shares closed up in the red, accounting for nearly 14.9%. According to the stratification statistics of market capitalization, among the stocks with a total market value of more than 100 billion yuan, nearly seventy percent of the stocks have risen, with an average increase of nearly 11.2%. There are only 7 "red plates" of stocks with less than 2 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.7%, with an average decline of nearly 38.1%. On the whole, the market of A-shares in the first half of the year was still "big is beautiful", and small and micro cap stocks suffered heavy losses.
7. AMAC: As of the end of May, there were 148 fund management companies in mainland China, 13 securities companies or asset management subsidiaries of securities companies and 1 insurance asset management company that have obtained public fund management qualifications. The total net asset value of the public funds managed by the above institutions is 31.24 trillion yuan.
8. Finance Associated Press: The A-share market in 2024 ushered in the "end" of the year on June 28, bidding farewell to the second half of 2023, when various nonsensical metaphysical themes were speculated, the theme interpretation in the first half of this year returned to the fundamentals and the category of "value investment", and the market style was more rational and stable. From the "Zhongzi prefix" and "Wensheng video" at the beginning of the year, to the low-altitude economy of the core track of new quality productivity, and even the price increase of commodities that have changed from the "dark line" to the main line.
9. Mid-term Association: As of the end of May, there were 150 futures companies in China, distributed in 29 jurisdictions. In May 2024, the trading volume was 55.53 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 731 million lots, the operating income was 3.109 billion yuan, and the net profit was 684 million yuan.
10. China Telecom: Based on the principle of prudence and comprehensive consideration of the company's demand for audit services, the company intends to organize the public selection and appointment of external auditors in 2024, and the company will perform the review procedure in accordance with the relevant requirements after the selection results are clear.
11. Wall Nuclear Materials: In order to enhance the financial strength of the holding subsidiary, enhance the competitiveness and anti-risk ability, the holding subsidiaries Dongguan Electronics and Shanghai Electronics plan to increase the capital of the holding subsidiary Shenzhen Special Development with a total of 200 million yuan of their own funds, of which the new registered capital is 104.7 million yuan, and the remaining 95.3 million yuan is included in the capital reserve.
Wealth Spotlight
1. The Paper: The manager of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. submitted an application to this court on June 28, saying that Zhongzhi enterprises have complex related relationships, wide distribution of property, and huge debts. Applied to the Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People's Court for substantive merger and bankruptcy liquidation of 248 enterprises including Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd.
2. Per Jingwang: The new regulations on commission rates will be officially implemented on July 1, and the commission rates of newly signed passive index products will be unified according to 10,000 2, and the commission rates of actively managed products will be unified according to 10,000 5. Not only that, some large-scale products may further break through 10,000 2 and drop to 1,000.
3, the Ministry of Finance: In May, a total of 47.617 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, the sales of welfare lottery institutions were 17.057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; Sports lottery agency sales of 30.56 billion yuan, down 9.1% year-on-year.
Industry Watch
1. Shanghai Data Exchange: As of June 28, there have been more than 2,700 listed data products, and the transaction volume of data products in 2023 will exceed 1.16 billion yuan, and the transaction amount as of the end of May in 2024 will be the same as last year, and the transaction amount is expected to be about 5 billion yuan this year.
2. Shenzhen News Network: China's first "low-altitude + rail" air-rail intermodal transport project jointly built by Shenzhen Railway Group and Eastern General Aviation was officially launched in the East Square of Shenzhen North Railway Station. It is understood that the charter flight of Shenzhen North Suixin starts at 9,800 yuan, can seat 6 people, and can fly to various districts of Shenzhen and Zhongshan City. Citizens can go to the apron of the East Square of Shenzhen North Railway Station to take a flight.
3. China Securities News: Overall, the sales of sunscreen clothing this year are more positive than last year. At present, it is summer, sunscreen clothing is selling well, and related tracks have also become the focus of attention in the capital market. Bosideng, Pathfinder and many other listed companies have increased their layout of the track. With the improvement of people's awareness of sun protection, China's sunscreen clothing market will show a steady growth trend.
4. China Internet Network Information Center: The number of online shopping users in mainland China has exceeded 900 million. Among them, the number of users who purchased domestic "trendy products" reached 530 million, accounting for nearly sixty percent.
5. CCTV News: The China National Space Administration handed over the Chang'e-6 sample container to the Chinese Academy of Sciences on June 28 and handed over the sample certificate. According to preliminary estimates, the Chang'e-6 mission collected 1,935.3 grams of lunar samples. This marks the official transition of the Chang'e-6 mission from the project implementation stage to a new stage of scientific research.
6. AlixPlatinum: By 2030, Chinese brands will become the dominant force in the global auto market, with sales in overseas markets reaching 9 million units, accounting for 33% of the global market share. Growth will be built on cost advantages, localized production strategies, and highly technology-driven vehicles that meet consumer demand for design.
7. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to May, the investment in fixed assets in the electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 14.8% year-on-year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from January to April, and 2.2 and 4.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of investment in industrial and high-tech manufacturing industries in the same period.
8、TrendForce：第三季NAND Flash 供过于求比例上升至2.3%，NAND Flash均价涨幅收敛至季增5-10%。
Company news
1. Shanghai Securities News: China Telecom released a 5G-A action plan, which will build eight 5G-A core capabilities, carry out in-depth cooperation in six key 5G-A areas such as terminals, satellites, Internet of Things, and low altitude, and launch nine 5G-A applications.
2. Kingsoft Office: On the afternoon of June 28, many users reported that WPS Kingsoft Docs could not be opened normally and the application crashed, and related topics were then on the Weibo hot search list. At present, the software function has been fixed, and the cause of the crash may be related to the abnormal cloud service.
Global vision
1. CCTV News: Japan's Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Keizo Takemi said on June 28 that the number of consumers suspected of dying from taking Japan's Kobayashi Pharmaceutical's problematic red yeast rice health products increased by 76. The death toll was previously reported at five.
2. The IMF: released the 2024 U.S. Article IV Consultation Report, arguing that the U.S. high fiscal deficit and debt create increasingly significant risks to the domestic and global economy, and the U.S. government urgently needs to solve the problem of long-term fiscal deficits.
Financial data
domestic
1. New Third Board: On June 28, a total of 6,142 companies were listed, and 1 new company was added on the same day, with a turnover of 172 million. The three-board component index was reported at 801.08, down 0.00%, with a turnover of 89 million.
2. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close of the afternoon of June 28, there were more rises and fewer losses. Shanghai tin, styrene, etc. rose more than 2%, methanol, glass, etc. rose more than 1%, soybean meal, coking coal, etc. rose slightly; Jujubes and lithium carbonate fell by more than 1%, while rebar and corn fell slightly.
3. Treasury bonds: On June 28, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2409 rose 0.01% to 101.978, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2409 rose 0.01% to 104.005, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2409 rose 0.01% to 105.320. The 10-year Treasury rate fell 0.23bp to 2.21%; The 10-year CDB rate rose 0.00bp to 2.29%.
4. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On June 28, the main crude oil futures contract 2408 closed at 628.3 yuan per barrel, up 10.4 yuan, or 1.68%. All contracts traded 135749 lots, and open interest increased by 4,258 lots to 52,681 lots. The main contract traded 107859 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,223 lots to 26,696 lots.
5. Central Bank: On June 28, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was carried out on the same day, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase on the same day, a net investment of 40 billion yuan was realized.
6. Shibor: Overnight reported 1.8890%, up 1.00 basis points. The 7-day trade was at 2.0990%, up 7.10 basis points. The 3-month is at 1.9180%, up 0.00 basis points.
7. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2659 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0413%, and the central parity of the RMB was reported at 7.1268, up 0.0028%. NDF: 3-month at 7.1330, 6-month at 7.1210, 1-month at 7.0710, 2-month at 6.9710.
8. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On June 27, the trading volume of the carbon emission quota listing agreement in the national carbon market was 27,010 tons, with a turnover of 2.514 million yuan and a closing price of 92.13 yuan/ton, down 0.8%.
abroad
9. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.61% to 39,583.08 points. South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.5% to 2,797.78.
10. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed down 0.12% at 39,118.86, the Nasdaq closed down 0.71% at 17,732.6, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.41% at 5,460.48.
11. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 0.19% at 8,164.12 points, Germany's DAX30 closed up 0.14% at 18,235.45 points, and France's CAC40 closed down 0.68% at 7,479.4 points.
12. Gold: COMEX gold futures rose 0.01% to $2336.9 an ounce.
13. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures settled down 0.24% at $81.54 per barrel. Brent crude futures rose 0.02% to $86.41 a barrel.
14. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: up 0.94% to 2050 points.
· A-share market review in the first half of the year·
► Financial Headlines App: As of the close of trading on June 28, so far in 2024, only 8 of the 31 Shenwan first-class industries have risen, and the top three gainers are banks (+17.02%), coal (+11.96%), and utilities (+11.76%); As many as 23 sectors fell, with 19 sectors falling by more than 10%, with sectors such as comprehensive, computer and retail leading the decline, all falling by more than 20%. Judging from the performance in the past three years, only 4 industries have risen, and the coal sector has stood out, with a cumulative increase of more than 40%; A total of 27 industries fell, 17 industries fell by more than 30%, and the fund's heavy positions in the pharmaceutical and biological, food and beverage and power equipment sectors have fallen by more than 40%.
► Ping An Securities: The market in the first half of the year showed the characteristics of plate rotation + "mirror market" + leading dominance, affected by factors such as the performance of listed companies and incremental funds, the steady value assets represented by state-owned central enterprises and high dividends and the technology growth assets represented by TMT appeared to rotate rapidly, and then the science and technology innovation and dividend sector came out of the "mirror market". As the rebound since February has gradually weakened, the market risk aversion has begun to brew, suppressing the risk appetite of existing funds. Large-cap stocks dominated, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 leading the gains, with more growth and small-cap adjustments.
► Finance Associated Press: A-share half a year ends! Judging from the market performance in the first half of the year, the performance of several major indexes was differentiated, among which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300 Index closed up, the ChiNext Index fell more than 10%, the CNI 2000 Index fell nearly 20%, the CSI 2000 Index fell more than 20%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell more than 30%. In the first half of the year, high-dividend blue-chip stocks performed strongly, with many stocks such as Yangtze Power and CNOOC hitting record highs; Low-altitude economy and other hot topics were once active. Overall, large-cap blue-chip stocks performed better, while small- and medium-cap stocks generally fell, with less than 800 stocks rising in the whole market.
► China Securities Network: In the second half of the year, it is recommended to pay attention to the following investment opportunities: 1) High dividend sector, in the face of uncertainty in the international macro environment, the upstream resource sector and dividend sector have high dividend advantages and high cost performance in allocation. In terms of profitability, after the start of the inventory cycle, dividend assets with pro-cyclical attributes are expected to benefit from economic recovery; In terms of valuation, the valuation of dividend assets is at a historical low, and the valuation is cost-effective; 2) Growth sector, new quality productivity-related areas have huge investment potential. The AI industry continues to develop, and the fundamentals of related technology companies are gradually improving. Low-altitude economy, innovative drugs and other industries have ushered in favorable policies and have good investment value.
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The market loves beauty pageants in the short term and weight measurement in the long term. – Benjamin Graham