Post-industrial Evolution in Major Manufacturing Provinces | Microscopic horizons

Xie Hong/Text In the wave of global economic restructuring, Guangdong, as a major manufacturing province in China, is standing at a critical crossroads. On the one hand, with the adjustment of the global structure, Guangdong's status as the "world factory" is facing the challenge of manufacturing enterprises "going overseas"; On the other hand, the comprehensive upgrading of China's manufacturing industry has also brought unprecedented opportunities for Guangdong manufacturing.

At the same time, Guangdong is in full swing carrying out an unprecedented social mobilization - the high-quality development project of 100 counties, 100 towns and 100 villages (hereinafter referred to as the "100,000 project"). There are 122 counties (cities, districts), 1,609 towns (streets) and 26,500 administrative villages (communities) in Guangdong Province.

Launched on December 8, 2022, the "Millions and Thousands Project" is the "number one project" in Guangdong Province to promote high-quality development. With high-quality development as the theme, the rural revitalization strategy, the regional coordinated development strategy, the main functional area strategy, and the new urbanization strategy as the traction, the integrated development of urban and rural areas as the main approach, and the goal of building a new pattern of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, it strengthens the comprehensive strength of the county and comprehensively promotes rural revitalization.

Guangdong's "Millions and Millions Project" aims to expand development space, smooth the economic cycle, realize the benefits of the people and enrich the people, meet the people's expectations for a better life, promote the modernization of Guangdong's agricultural and rural development, and improve the overall level of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization.

In the window period of economic transformation, the "Millions and Thousands Project" has accelerated the exploration and social practice of Guangdong's transformation at both the economic and social levels. The author will sort out this.

The post-industrial economy and the new trend of manufacturing in Guangdong

At present, Guangdong's manufacturing industry is developing in the direction of high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing and digitalization, which is roughly the same as the development path of industrialized countries around the world. In addition to the high-end manufacturing of the manufacturing industry, the service industry and high-tech dominate the economic development, which is characterized by industrial structure optimization, innovation-driven and sustainable development.

In the structure of an industrialized economy, the secondary sector (especially manufacturing) accounts for a significant share of GDP. In terms of employment structure, a large number of labor forces are engaged in industrial production, and the proportion of industrial employment in total employment is relatively high. In terms of technical level, with the process of industrialization, the level of industrial technology has gradually improved.

In the post-industrial economic structure, the economy has shifted from a commodity production economy to a service-oriented economy, and the proportion of the tertiary industry (service industry) has surpassed that of the secondary industry and has become dominant. The majority of the workforce is in the service sector, and the skilled class is on the rise. The technical logic is that the high-tech industry and information technology have become the main driving force, and the innovation ability has become the core competitiveness.

Post-industrialization is the product of industrialization after it has developed to a certain stage. In the era of digital economy, data has become a new factor of production, and with the application of technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence, traditional industries are gradually developing in the direction of high-end and intelligence due to digitalization. The digital industry has become the leading industry, and the digital economy has also become a new trend in the development of the post-industrial era, which will promote the transformation of human society from the industrial era to the post-industrial era and then to the digital economy era.

Since about 2015, Guangdong's tertiary industry has begun to surpass the secondary industry. In 2023, the ratio of Guangdong's GDP to the tertiary industry will be 4.1:40.1:55.8, respectively, which means that the tertiary industry has become the main driving force for Guangdong's economic growth. In Guangzhou, the leading city of Guangdong's economy, the tertiary industry accounted for 73.3% and 62.3% of GDP respectively. In 2022, the added value of Guangdong's high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 3.2% over the previous year, accounting for 29.9% of the added value of industries above designated size, reflecting the important position of high-end manufacturing in Guangdong's economy. In 2022, the added value of Guangdong's digital economy reached 6.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 49.7% of the region's GDP. This proportion has continued to rise in recent years, indicating that the digital economy has become a new driving force for Guangdong's economic growth.

High-end manufacturing has gradually replaced traditional manufacturing as the leading industry, improving the overall competitiveness of Guangdong Province's economy. Whether it is the proportion of the tertiary industry in the gross domestic product or the leading role of high technology and digital economy in the economy, it shows that Guangdong is in the stage of development from industrialization to post-industrialization.

The logic of social development in the post-industrial era

Post-industrial society has several significant characteristics: first, post-industrial society pays more attention to the all-round development of people and the improvement of quality of life, emphasizing personal value and social responsibility; Secondly, talent has become the core element of society, and the society respects individuals who innovate and create value, and provides talent guarantee for scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading; The third is the progress of social civilization, and the society pays more attention to social equity, educational fairness, medical security, etc., in order to improve people's living standards and happiness.

The material conditions for the transformation from industrialization to post-industrialization mainly include economic structural transformation, scientific and technological innovation, and sustainable development. Cultural conditions include values, social factors, and cultural innovations. These conditions interact and reinforce each other, and together promote the transformation of industrialization to post-industrialization.

Technological development has promoted the improvement of production efficiency, the transformation of business models, and the innovation of management models, providing a strong impetus for the development of post-industrial civilization. Cultural innovation helps to break the outdated feudal cultural traditions, release people's innovative spirit, and provide new ideas and impetus for promoting the transformation from industrialization to post-industrialization.

The development of post-industrial civilization has been accompanied by the development of post-industrial civilization. Post-industrial civilization is regarded as a reflection on industrial civilization, which focuses on and tries to solve the problems of environmental pollution, resource depletion, social injustice, and human alienation brought about by industrial civilization.

The development of industrial civilization has exacerbated social injustice, and the concentration of capital and the exploitation of labor have intensified the differentiation of social classes and the gap between the rich and the poor has widened. In the process of pursuing efficiency, workers gradually lose their human dignity and become screws on the production line. The relationship between human beings and nature has been alienated, and human beings have overexploited and utilized natural resources, resulting in an imbalance in the ecosystem and an increasingly tense relationship between humans and nature.

Post-industrial civilization emphasizes the importance of economic structure, occupational distribution, and theoretical knowledge and innovation, which are all a reflection and transcendence of industrial civilization.

In the post-industrial era, as the majority of the labor force is no longer engaged in agriculture and manufacturing, but is engaged in service industries, the demand for services has increased and the dependence on manufacturing has decreased. Foshan Ailebo Robot Co., Ltd. has a workshop called "163 workshop": 1 person does the work of 6 people and gets the salary of 3 people, and the employees are all post-90s and post-00s, and the working state is very active, and the per capita salary is two to three times that of ordinary factories; Enterprises optimize the supply chain and order scheduling system to achieve agile manufacturing and improve competitiveness in an all-round way.

In post-industrial societies, the distribution of occupations is characterized by the rise of the technical class. With the development of the service-oriented economy, the focus of work has shifted to offices, educational institutions and administrative departments, and "white-collar workers" have also emerged in the manufacturing industry, and scientific and technological personnel such as scientists and engineers have become an important support for the post-industrial society. A company in Dongguan that makes dust removal equipment, engineers account for nearly 60% of the more than 500 employees. The competition of enterprises in the post-industrial era is no longer the factory, but the office behind the factory. The boss of the enterprise said that it is simple to manage the workers, but how to manage the engineers? This is also a new challenge for enterprise management in the post-industrial era.

This change in economic structure has led to the transfer of a large amount of manufacturing production to quasi-industrial countries or regions, and urban residents within the original industrial system have more employment and living options, and the structure of employment opportunities has changed, and industries usually do not need a large number of labor gatherings, so people have begun to seek more livable regional life.

From the logic of production to the logic of society and the logic of life, from material life to spiritual life. In the context of modern China, this is the embodiment of the people's yearning for a better life.

The historical opportunity of Guangdong's "Millions of Projects".

In fact, in the 70s of the 20th century, the developed countries of the West began their post-industrial civilization development and "reverse urbanization" development.

Reverse urbanization, also known as suburbanization or anti-urbanization, refers to the phenomenon of population migration to suburban or rural areas due to overpopulation and poor living environment in urban centers. This trend involves not only population migration, but also the transfer of factors of production such as industry, capital, and technology.

In Germany, "reverse urbanization" is a phenomenon that has reached a more mature stage of urbanization. After the urbanization rate exceeds a certain level (e.g., 70%), urban population growth begins to slow down, and even some large cities experience a decrease in population. Populations have migrated from large cities and major metropolitan areas to small metropolitan areas, small towns and even non-urban areas. This trend of mobility is manifested in a decrease in the population of urban centres and an increase in the population of suburbs and small cities.

Reverse urbanization is a complex socio-economic phenomenon that reflects changes in socio-economic and urban development in a deeper way. With the development of globalization and informatization, the economic structure and industrial structure of cities have undergone profound changes, some traditional industries have gradually declined, and emerging industries have flourished. This change has led to a decrease in job opportunities in urban centers, while suburban or rural areas have become important areas for the development of new industries.

At the same time, with the development of transportation and communication technology, people can travel between the city and the suburbs more conveniently, which also provides a material basis for reverse urbanization.

In Germany, for example, there are very few large cities with a population of more than one million (such as Berlin and Munich), while suburbs and small cities account for more than 70% of the population, and a large number of people move to the suburbs and villages every year.

Although urbanization in the UK started early, there has been a trend of counter-urbanization in recent years. In pursuit of a better living environment and a higher quality of life, urban dwellers have also begun to move to suburban or rural areas. The main reason is the increasing environmental problems in urban centers, such as traffic congestion and air pollution, while suburban or rural areas provide a more livable environment.

The United States is one of the countries with the most pronounced anti-urbanization. Since the 50s of the 20th century, the suburbanization of American cities has accelerated, and the population of suburbs within metropolises has grown much faster than in central cities. According to statistics, after 1970, the population of large cities in the United States stopped growing or even decreased, and the flow of population and other resources began to shift to small and medium-sized cities, especially the suburban towns around large cities.

Of course, not all developed countries are "anti-urbanized". Although Japan has also proposed the concept of "reverse urbanization" and tried to encourage migration to small towns through incentives, Tokyo as the capital still attracts a large number of people. According to statistics, Japan has a population of 130 million, of which 37 million live in Tokyo, which shows the attractiveness of Tokyo as a big city.

Seoul is the capital of South Korea with a higher population concentration. South Korea has a total population of about 50 million, while Seoul accounts for 20% of the country's population, or about 10.2 million. This means that Seoul is not only economically important, but also a major concentration of South Korea's population.

Clearly, in the Asian cultural world, the concept of job opportunities, urban cultural life, educational opportunities, social security and a better future for children still shows the charm of big cities.

The author once visited Germany and found that many enterprises in the country are willing to stay in the countryside, and many scientific researchers prefer to stay in the beautiful countryside to engage in R&D and production.

In order to cooperate with the post-industrial civilization era and the development of rural revitalization, many developed countries have also made full use of their accumulation in industrialization to systematically support rural revitalization.

As a traditional agricultural power in Europe, France has achieved a rapid industrialization process after World War II, which has provided strong technical support and material foundation for agricultural modernization. Through the implementation of the "territorial consolidation" policy, France has used the financial and technical support brought by industrialization to renovate rural areas, promoted the improvement of rural infrastructure and the modernization of agricultural production, and through the development of "integrated agriculture", combined agriculture with industry, commerce, transportation and other industries to form a community of interests, and promoted the extension of the agricultural industry chain and the improvement of the added value of agricultural products.

Through the implementation of the policy of "agricultural land consolidation", the Netherlands has carried out rational planning and management of agricultural land, which has improved the efficiency of land use and the scale of agricultural production. At the same time, it has invested a lot of money in agricultural science and technology to improve the output and quality of agricultural products through scientific and technological innovation, thus enhancing the international competitiveness of its agriculture. The Netherlands' agricultural exports reached $100 billion, ranking second in the world.

Japan has put forward the concept of "six secondary industries", based on agriculture, forming a complete industrial chain integrating production, processing, sales and service. Because "1+2+3" is equal to 6, and "1×2×3" is also equal to 6, it is called "sixth industry". The "six secondary industries" have improved agricultural efficiency in an all-round way and injected new vitality into the development of rural economy.

Industrial infrastructure, transportation facilities, capital accumulation, technology accumulation, and market-oriented operation are important supports for rural revitalization, including strengthening the construction of rural roads, water conservancy, electricity and other infrastructure. By the end of 2023, 183,500 kilometers of rural roads in Guangdong Province will be opened to traffic, and the grade rate and pavement rate of rural roads will reach 100%. More than 16,000 villages have two-lane roads, accounting for 83.5%, achieving the goal of connecting villages with roads. The total mileage of expressways in Guangdong Province is 11,211 kilometers, and the operating mileage of high-speed railways in the province is about 2,764 kilometers, both of which rank among the top in the country.

In this context, Guangdong Province in the window period of manufacturing transfer, industrial transformation and social transformation, it is a historical opportunity to put forward the "Millions and Millions Project" of rural revitalization.

Professor Wen Tiejun, a well-known expert on agriculture, agriculture and agriculture, pointed out that rural revitalization is the ballast stone to cope with the challenges of globalization, and he believes that urban-rural integration is an important guiding ideology to promote rural revitalization.

Guangdong's "Millions of Projects" and its historical mission

While Guangdong has basically completed industrialization, the problem of the dual structure of urban and rural areas is still serious, and the gap between urban and rural areas is still widening, which is reflected in the income gap between urban and rural residents. The urban bias in the structure of national income distribution has also exacerbated the widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas.

On the issue of breaking the dual structure of urban and rural areas, the "Millions and Thousands Project" hopes to improve the production and living conditions of rural areas and improve the living standards of farmers by strengthening the construction of rural infrastructure; improve the level of rural industrialization, promote the diversified development of the rural economy, and improve the competitiveness of the rural economy; Promote employment and entrepreneurship of peasants, increase their sources of income, and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.

In essence, Guangdong's implementation of the "Millions and Millions Project" is to fulfill the mission entrusted to it by history.

The first is to solve the problem of the dual structure of urban and rural areas. This problem seems to be the problem of urban-rural income gap, and Guangdong Province has also solved it through a large number of poverty alleviation policies and counterpart assistance, but there is a problem of sustainable development of rural revitalization. The relations of production in the rural areas are chaotic, and there is a serious shortage of managerial, managerial, and productive personnel in the rural areas. The rural revitalization proposed by Japan is first and foremost the revitalization of talents. If we start from the economy alone, we will not be able to solve the sustainable development problem of rural revitalization.

Guangdong's rural areas need a major social construction. South Korea's "New Village Movement" has not only improved the rural environment and farmers' lives, but also cultivated various rural non-governmental organizations, vigorously established cultural undertakings, advocated a simple and environmentally friendly lifestyle, and led new social values, which is a successful rural reform movement.

Gu Yaohui, secretary of the Nanhai District Party Committee of Foshan City, Guangdong Province, said when talking about the "Millions of Projects" that it is necessary to focus on "small points", focus on "small incisions", build "small platforms", and pay attention to "small details", so as to accelerate the overall improvement and development of rural areas through these specific actions.

A very important embodiment of rural revitalization is the entry of market mechanisms, talents, capital, and culture into villages.

Gu Yaohui emphasized that rural revitalization should promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas, and pay attention to ecological revitalization and cultural revitalization. He believes that the countryside is the root of traditional culture and the spiritual sustenance of urban people. Therefore, he advocated excavating and presenting the aesthetic value of the countryside in rural revitalization, and using aesthetics to introduce urban traffic into the countryside, so as to drive the revitalization of rural talents and industries.

The focus of rural revitalization in Guangdong's "Millions of Millions Project" is not on funds and resources, but on rural production relations, the spirit of ownership of villagers and village collectives, management mechanisms, land, culture, and so on. China's rural governance needs a new top-level design, and Guangdong can ask the central government for policies. In the end, the governance of China's rural areas must return from management to autonomy, and it is necessary to give full play to the role of rural sages and use the laws of the market to do things in order to achieve sustainable development. And what is the value proposition of culture, it needs to be precipitated and condensed.

Second, in the progressive and subjective planning of the trend of post-industrial civilization, reverse urbanization and rural revitalization, it is necessary to guide the advantages brought by the combination of several trends, and also pay great attention to the social development logic and cultural logic behind these trends.

From the domination of industrialization to the all-round development of people in the post-industrial era, it is a new value that attaches importance to the different choices and orientations of individuals, and is ultimately reflected in the respect for individual values and how to play the role of individuals in technological innovation, management innovation and industrial innovation. In the post-industrial era, individuals are not managed, but stimulated and motivated.

Post-industrialization and anti-urbanization are also concepts of the times, and it is definitely not a simple economic behavior. If our policymakers cannot understand the trend in terms of cultural values, understand the new life concepts and production methods, and simply understand them as some consumption behaviors on the basis of carrying out homestay management, outdoor camping, self-driving tourism, etc., it will be difficult to inject the driving force and vitality of sustainable development into the countryside.

The pension industry in Changxing County, Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province is a rural revitalization model constructed after understanding the lifestyle of the elderly. The most important thing in rural revitalization is people, the understanding of people's lifestyles, and the understanding of rural life and production methods. The development model proposed by Zhejiang Province is "think tank as the master, the market as the main body, the villagers and village collectives as the masters, and the government as the shopkeepers", highlighting the role of think tank planning in rural revitalization, which itself also reflects the importance of people in the post-industrial era.

Third, rural revitalization is also deeply related to the construction of a common prosperity society and the construction of a unified domestic market.

First of all, rural revitalization is an inevitable requirement for achieving common prosperity. By promoting the development of rural economy, we can narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, alleviate social contradictions, and promote social harmony and stability. Second, rural revitalization is an important way to promote high-quality development. By strengthening the construction of rural infrastructure and raising the level of rural industrialization, we can promote the adjustment and upgrading of the economic structure and improve the quality and efficiency of economic development. For example, the development of rural tourism and homestay industry involves the prefabricated building industry, pan-home industry, outdoor industry, and health industry, which can provide a broader market for Guangdong's manufacturing industry.

At the same time, Guangdong has the conditions to become a major international and domestic consumption province. Guangdong's GDP ranking can reach about 10th in the world. According to the author's estimates, Guangdong's per capita GDP in 2023 will be about US$15,000, the per capita GDP of the Greater Bay Area will be about US$19,000, and the per capita GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be about US$23,000. The standard line of developed countries in the world is 20,000 US dollars per capita, and the per capita GDP of Portugal, which ranks last among developed countries, is about 26,000 US dollars, which shows that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is equivalent to the economic level of a quasi-developed country. If the blueprint of the "Ten Million Project" is realized, Guangdong's rural areas will become a larger consumer market, and Guangdong's economy will be based on the local economy, and it will still be able to maintain its position as the leader of China's economic development. The "Millions and Millions Project" is also a breakthrough in Guangdong's economic development, which can help Guangdong Province develop from an export-oriented economy to a new pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other, build a large domestic regional market in Guangdong Province, and promote the formation and development of the domestic market.

To paraphrase Professor Wen Tiejun's words, Guangdong's "Millions of Projects" are the ballast stone of Guangdong's economic globalization. Only in this way can Guangdong consolidate both the domestic and international markets, and be able to meet challenges, seize opportunities, and achieve sustainable development in the tide of global economic restructuring. This is the progressive progress of Guangdong, a major manufacturing province, on the main channel of industrial civilization, and it is also the due meaning of Guangdong's economic development exploration in the post-industrial era.