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Author / Starch sausage under the stars
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Typesetting/Cinnamon rolls under the stars
In December last year, Tesla's Optimus-Gen 2 humanoid robot was unveiled, which not only lost 10kg of weight, but also increased walking speed by 30%. Although Tesla did not reveal the specific method of weight loss of the second-generation Optimus, it all seems to point to a behind-the-scenes hero - PEEK material. This speculation quickly ignited the enthusiasm of the market, and related concept stocks also danced.
At the same time, the high-profile low-altitude economy has also increased the imagination space for PEEK materials. However, after the author's research and analysis, although the new outlet of PEEK material is popular, it is difficult to increase the volume in the short term, and the driving effect on PEEK material may be limited.
PEEK Market Size and Forecast Source: Tianfeng Securities Research Institute
First, lightweight is an absolute advantage
PEEK (polyetheretherketone) is a semi-crystalline material located at the top of the pyramid of special engineering plastics, and is known as one of the world's best-performing thermoplastic materials. All of them have such a reputation because of the comprehensive performance of PEEK. Compared with the characteristics of engineering plastics, PEEK has both rigidity and toughness that are superior to most special engineering plastics, and has excellent characteristics.
Compared with ordinary metals, the specific strength of PEEK is an absolute advantage. PEEK has 8 times the specific strength of aluminum alloy and only 1/3 of its density, which means that the use of PEEK material can significantly reduce the weight of the material while meeting the strength requirements, making it the best choice for achieving light weight.
Comparison of properties of different materials Source: Guojin Securities Research Institute
Second, standing in the tuyere, but can't fly
Based on the lightweight advantages of PEEK material, it shows great potential in the field of humanoid robots and low-altitude economy. However, the actual market demand is far less strong than expected.
Tesla's Optimus-Gen 2 has brought heat and industrial opportunities to PEEK materials, but the market space is limited.
One of the reasons is that humanoid robots are still in the early stages of commercialization, and mass production still needs to wait; The second reason is that the market space brought by humanoid robots is limited. According to public information in the market, there is currently no accurate figure for the amount of PEEK used in a single unmanned robot. According to the calculation of Guolian Securities, assuming that the average parameters of humanoid robots such as Tesla and UBTECH (HK9880) are estimated, and the volume of PEEK material is estimated to replace 25% of the fuselage, a single robot consumes about 6.9kg of PEEK material. Assuming that the PEEK material is 350,000 yuan/ton and the single robot is 140,000 yuan, the value of a single PEEK material is about 2,407 yuan, accounting for 1.71%. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global humanoid robot market is expected to reach $154 billion in 2035, and the corresponding market size of PEEK material is only $2.6 billion, which is very small.
Humanoid robot PEEK usage measurement Source: Guolian Securities Research Institute
In the field of low-altitude economy, the lightweight advantages of PEEK material are also significant. PEEK can effectively reduce the weight of the aircraft, thereby increasing the payload, and improving the performance and safety of the aircraft. Although the low-altitude economy has been listed as a strategic emerging industry and has received a series of policy support, the new industry has just started and is destined to be a long-term journey.
Third, the upstream resource advantage is significant
Although the growth of downstream demand is limited, Continental's upstream resource advantage in PEEK materials is very significant.
PEEK material cost composition = direct material 75% + direct manufacturing cost 11% + direct labor 8% + energy, power and transportation cost 6%. Among them, the core of the largest direct material is fluoroketone (DFBP), and the purity and quality of fluorone will directly affect the product quality of PEEK material. The fluoroketone synthesis process is complex and expensive, about 10-150,000 yuan/ton. Currently, 0.7-0.8 tonnes of fluoroketone are consumed for every 1 tonne of PEEK produced. PEEK material is highly sensitive to the price of fluoroketone. The price of fluoroketone materials has risen by 5%, which will make the gross profit margin of PEEK materials fall by 1%~1.5%. Therefore, fluorone has become a key upstream resource for PEEK materials.
The main production capacity of global fluoroketone is concentrated in three enterprises: Xinhan New Materials (301076), Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915) and Yingkou Xingfu (unlisted, now known as Xingfu New Materials) in the mainland. Continental's dominance in the fluoroketone segment provides a cost advantage for the production of PEEK materials. Judging from the performance of Xinhan New Materials, fluoroketone has maintained a relatively considerable revenue growth rate and gross profit margin in the past three years. According to the company's annual report, this is inseparable from the company's long-term cooperative relationship with the world's major manufacturers in the PEEK field, SOLVAY, VICTREX, EVONIK, and leading domestic PEEK manufacturers, Zhongyan Co., Ltd. (688716), Jida Special Plastic (unlisted) and PFLUON (unlisted).
Xinhan New Material's performance (100 million yuan) Source: wind
Fourth, the domestic substitution road resistance is long
Since China has almost monopolized the upstream resources of PEEK materials, the PEEK materials of domestic manufacturers should be able to have obvious price advantages. And that's exactly what happened. According to market data, the domestic price of PEEK material is about 30~400,000 yuan/ton, and the foreign price is about 80~1 million yuan/ton, and the domestic price can reach half of the foreign market. Of course, there are still differences between domestic PEEK materials and foreign ones in some properties.
However, the absolute price advantage stimulates domestic manufacturers to go overseas to compete for market share. However, the road to the sea of domestic PEEK is also full of difficulties. The main reason is that foreign companies are among the top three suppliers in the world, and the industrial chain is stable, and it is difficult for domestic enterprises to enter the supply chain.
Global PEEK Manufacturers Market Share in 2022 Source: New Materials Online
It is difficult for the domestic market to break out of high demand in the short term, and it is difficult for foreign markets to enter. Domestic enterprises such as China Research Co., Ltd. are increasing R&D investment, committed to improving product quality, and narrowing the gap with international giants. In 2023, the R&D investment of Zhongyan Co., Ltd. will increase by 60.17% year-on-year, showing the company's firm determination to improve product performance.
For domestic manufacturers, it may be a better choice to polish the production process and optimize product quality while waiting for the domestic market to increase the volume.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.