Recently, the 2024 U.S. election ushered in the first televised debate competition, and the incumbent President Biden and Republican candidate Trump participated in the televised debate for the first time since 2020.
In order to prevent Trump from arbitrarily interrupting Biden's speech like in the 2020 presidential election televised debate competition, the US media adopted a new way of debating this year.
Biden participates in the first televised debate match
There will be two advertisements in the 90 minutes after the start of the debate, staff will not be allowed to interact with the candidates, candidates will not be allowed to bring any pre-written notes, and one candidate will speak while the other candidate's microphone is turned off.
As a result, Biden not only had "nonsense" such as "I defeated the medical subsidy" in this debate match, but even had sluggishness and stuttering.
After the debate, the Trump campaign said it had "won a major victory", while the Democrats were "disappointed" with Biden's performance, and the outside world saw the televised debate as a "funeral".
The first debate of the U.S. election
In view of Biden's unsatisfactory performance in the first debate match, after the debate match, a reporter found that California Governor Gavin Newsom was also at the scene, and then asked Newsom "Will you be the next Democratic candidate"? Newsom directly denied it and said he would support Biden.
In this case, the Democrats may have the idea of changing candidates, but the Democrats need to consider two questions: First, is Biden willing to withdraw from the race? Second, how can Democrats who did not participate in the primaries logically replace Biden's candidacy? If these two issues cannot be resolved, the Democrats will not be able to replace Biden.
In a CNN instant poll after the debate on "who won the debate," Trump was 67 percent and Biden 33 percent.
Biden's eyes glazed over
As for the probability that Newsom, who was "besieged" by reporters, to become the new Democratic candidate, Gavin Newsom has served as the 40th governor of California since 2019, and once served as mayor of San Francisco from 2004 to 2011 and lieutenant governor of California from 2011 to 2019.
Judging from his resume, the 57-year-old Gavin Newsom does belong to the "young man" in the American political arena, but Newsom has suffered from dyslexia since he was a child, and to this day he likes to explain documents and related reports through audio.
At this point, the 57-year-old Newsom seems to have less verbal skills than the 78-year-old Trump.
If the Democratic Party wants to replace Biden, the first thing to look at is his own attitude, whether he is willing to withdraw from the race? According to the relevant laws of the United States, the president has the right of re-election.
Gavin Newsom
Judging from the history of the Democratic Party in recent decades, the incumbent president's re-election has ended in success except for Carter's failure, such as Clinton and Obama.
Republicans also have a history of successful re-election during their presidency, such as Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, with the exception of Trump.
Moreover, there have been very few resignations during a presidential term in American history, except in 1974, when Nixon was forced to resign due to the Watergate scandal, and John Taylor took over as president of the United States after the death of Harrison, then president of the United States.
Therefore, the possibility of Biden dropping out of the race is extremely low, and the Democratic Party cannot successfully run for other Democrats such as Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton and others to succeed Biden's candidate through a series of operations.
Not only does it not comply with U.S. law, but it also fails to convince Democratic supporters.
To sum up, when Biden has no intention of withdrawing from the presidential race, and the Democrats have no suitable way to recommend a new candidate, they can only bite the bullet and let Biden continue to run.
There has never been a single candidate in U.S. history who has lost an election because of a poor performance in a televised debate tournament. For example, during the 2020 presidential election, can Biden's performance in the televised debate be considered good? Of course not.
Even so, the Democratic Party led by Biden still won the final victory and successfully defeated the invincible Trump.
Therefore, a debate competition does not mean anything, and the Democratic Party still has a lot of room to operate, but now the US public opinion has shown a one-sided situation, and the pressure on the Democratic Party and Biden has risen sharply.
At present, the most important thing for the Democratic Party to consider is not what kind of means to replace Biden, but how to make American public opinion no longer develop in the direction of "Biden's performance in the debate is political suicide".
(Text/Mr. Zhuge )