In the corn market, recently, corn spot support is strong, due to the domestic new corn affected by the weather, the Northeast region continues to rain and low temperature, corn growth is slow, and North China and Huanghuai region, some production areas are affected by dry weather, the market speculation of new corn production reduction sentiment is strong, driving the corn contract quotation to continue to rise, supporting the spot market bullish mentality!
However, some institutions believe that in the short term, the market is bullish on the prospect of corn, the enthusiasm of the main body to sell grain is reduced, and the sentiment of hoarding grain is strong, which may exacerbate the supply pressure in the future market, which may have an adverse impact on the corn prospects!
At present, in the northern region, the port corn collection port is less, the channel is not highly motivated to sell grain, due to the rise in corn contract quotation, the downstream main body to undertake the capacity to become stronger, the port corn quotation rose, Jinzhou Port part of the enterprise quotation rose to 1.24 yuan / catty!
In the domestic mainstream production area market, the northeast region, due to the small amount of surplus grain of farmers, the transfer of grain rights to traders, traders have a poor subscription mentality, low temperature precipitation weather in many places in Heilongjiang, intensifying the bullish sentiment of the market, the supply of grain is tight, and the operating rate of enterprises is low, feed demand is weak to follow up, corn purchase and sales show a double low situation, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, mainstream enterprises corn quotation in 1.16 ~ 1.22 yuan / catty!
In North China and Huanghuai, due to the policy purchase of wheat, wheat prices have risen, wheat feed cost performance has decreased, and sporadic enterprises still have feed substitution operations, which has a certain impact on corn consumption. The main body of grain is concentrated in traders, and the channel has the mentality of shipping at a high price, but the sentiment of resisting the price reduction and selling grain is still high. However, in recent days, due to the reduction of the mentality of selling grain through channels, the price of corn in Shandong has been slightly raised, and the quotation of mainstream enterprises has risen to about 1.18~1.27 yuan / catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the supply of corn will continue to be tight, and the price center of gravity will be strong, but the upside may be limited due to the substitution of feed and the low operating rate of enterprises!
Gasoline and diesel market: It is reported that the first 13 oil price adjustments in 2024 will end, and in the first half of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will continue to "rise more and fall less". Taking Beijing as an example, on June 30, the price of No. 92 gasoline at the gas station was 8.02 yuan/liter, and on January 1, the quotation was 7.54 yuan/liter, and the oil price has risen by 0.48 yuan since the beginning of this year, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, residents are estimated to spend 24 yuan more to fill up a tank of oil!
According to the data, according to the oil price adjustment mechanism, the next oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on July 11, the third quarter, the first oil price adjustment, domestic gasoline and diesel prices or will maintain the fundamentals of rising, residential vehicles and logistics costs or will be further increased!
According to agency calculations, the 14th refined oil pricing cycle in 2024 will be from June 28 ~ July 11, 10 working days of this cycle, and on the first working day, the crude oil change rate will reach 1.61%, and the price of gasoline and diesel will rise to 80 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the estimated price increase of No. 92 gasoline at 6~7 cents/liter!
However, at present, the adjustment of oil prices is still in the early stage, and there is still uncertainty in this round of oil prices, especially the international crude oil market. According to the data of the U.S. Energy Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by about 3.7 million barrels more than expected, the market's concerns about energy demand became stronger, and the Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the dollar index rebounded, which further suppressed crude oil consumption expectations!
However, due to the seasonal consumption into the peak season, the North American driving peak is gradually realized, and the OPEC+ agreement to reduce production will continue until the end of next year, and the voluntary production reduction will be implemented until the end of the third quarter, the concern about tight energy supply is strong, and international oil prices are still in the stage of seasonal rise! According to institutional data, since June, U.S. oil has risen by 11.8%, cloth oil has risen by 11.2%, and international oil prices will still be strong, but the market may have a certain fluctuating trend due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy!
To sum up, based on the market long and short game, from a rational point of view, the 14th oil price adjustment in 2024, the domestic oil price is likely to be "easy to rise and difficult to fall", the specific price adjustment range is still unclear, the author will continue to pay attention to the development of the market, what do you think about this?