Many people will unconsciously shake their heads when they hear the word real estate, and in the face of the declining real estate industry, many people feel that there is no help.
S&P also gave a forecast for Chinese real estate, which may be worse in 2024, and there seems to be no suspense in this future, but the rescue has not stopped.
Why does S&P say China's real estate will be worse this year? Can China's real estate still be saved?
All statements in this article are based on reliable sources of information and are reproduced in the article
S&P forecasts Chinese real estate
The downturn in real estate is not a day or two, housing prices are falling everywhere, can not be stopped, obviously all over the country have adopted a certain rescue strategy, but the results are not satisfactory, even if a variety of plans have been come up, the intensity is unprecedented, but still can not stop the further decline in housing prices.
And today's people's confidence in buying a house is not as good as before, after all, no one can guarantee that the house bought today, tomorrow will not drop in price, people who are eager to realize the real estate want to sell the house can only further reduce the price, the future trend of real estate is really not optimistic, how many people feel that real estate is going to end.
And at this time, countless scholars and experts have done their best to guide the masses to buy houses, all of them are saying that the future trend of real estate is very good, and the house is likely to appreciate in the future.
Let's take a look at S&P's view of Chinese real estate, in their estimates, China's real estate sales in 2024 will be much worse than in 2023, and should fall by about 15%, and the annual sales should be between 9.5 trillion and 10 trillion, which is really scary.
Because in 2021, the total real estate sales in mainland China exceeded 18 trillion, if S&P's forecast is accurate, the development of 3 years will make real estate sales by half, of course, this forecast is not unfounded, S&P gave three reasons in order to convince everyone.
The first point is that the house prices mentioned above are falling too fast, there is almost no trend that will rebound, house prices are not as good as day by day, buy a house today and depreciate tomorrow, this kind of thing is a money-losing business on the bright side, will the people be willing to buy a house? The confidence of buyers has long collapsed, and now real estate is a situation that no one dares to save.
In the past, when housing prices rose rapidly, no matter how expensive the house was, people had to buy loans, because they knew that the price would rise if they bought, that is, it would appreciate, but now the situation has been completely reversed, and real estate can no longer be in short supply.
The second point is that most of the houses circulating in the market are second-hand houses, and now the affordable housing is about to be delivered, which will affect people's desire to buy new houses, according to relevant data, the transaction area of second-hand houses accounts for 4% of the total transaction area, which shows the great impact.
The reason for this situation is nothing more than the price, although the second-hand house is second-hand, but the price can be more than a little lower than the new house, the house has a place to live, not everyone has to live in the luxury palace, so more people choose to buy second-hand houses instead of new houses.
Another reason is that everyone's confidence in real estate companies is gradually collapsing, with the collapse of large enterprises, there are a lot of unfinished buildings in various places, so far there is no good solution, the unreliability of enterprises makes people worried, for fear that they will also buy unfinished buildings.
The last reason is that there is little demand for real estate in the third and fourth tier cities, more than 20 years have passed since the rise of real estate, and the real estate in the lower tier cities has been saturated, and after the first and second tier cities open up and restrict purchases, people in the lower tier cities will also enter the first and second tier cities, which is even more unfavorable for the real estate in the lower tier cities.
Is there really no suspense?
According to the point of view given by S&P, we can conclude that there is an imbalance between supply and demand in lower-tier cities, people's confidence in real estate is much less than before, coupled with the confused development of some experts and scholars, the direction of real estate is contrary to their views, and people are more scornful of real estate.
But is real estate hopeless? In fact, judging from the data, it is not easy to say now, because the implementation of the bailout policy in various places still has a certain effect, and the second-hand housing market in the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou has recovered to a certain extent, but the new housing transaction is still not optimistic, and we can only hope that the heat of the second-hand housing can be passed on.
New home transactions in lower-tier cities are also much better in terms of data, with the transaction area rising, but second-hand housing is still falling, which is also very similar to S&P's forecast, some areas are relatively backward in data updates, and the 517 New Deal has not been implemented for too long, and there is still room to continue to wait and see in the future.
And we have to recognize one point, that is, the official determination to save real estate, although real estate looks like an industry, but there are many industries involved in real estate, such as decoration, home appliances, etc., once real estate is in a downturn, more than one or two industries are involved.
Therefore, the current loneliness of real estate is temporary, it cannot be so sluggish forever, of course, it is difficult to appear in the peak state of previous years, as long as the official wants to continue to increase the bailout, then real estate will definitely usher in a relatively balanced state, we must understand this truth.
There is more room to play in the future
In fact, the policies introduced now are very good, the interest rate on buying houses across the country is decreasing, it is easier to buy a house with a loan, and the down payment is reduced so that more people can buy a house early, but this also makes those who took out a loan to buy a house before unwilling, which is also a helpless thing.
Even so, there are still many people who complain that the price of the house is too high, in fact, we should recognize this as early as possible, the high housing price has already made the house out of its original value, is it really necessary for a house to sell so expensive? The benefits brought by flipping houses have made people no longer have a correct understanding of the house.
From the moment the house becomes a place for them to compete for interests, it is no longer such a simple thing as a place to live, so they will feel scared in the face of the continuous decline in the real estate situation, after all, there is no channel to make money so quickly, and I personally think that the reduction of housing prices is not a bad thing.
I don't know what everyone thinks, as an ordinary person, I only hope that the house price can be equal to the salary of most people in the local area, so that ordinary people can afford to buy a house, not to mention the average salary in the area, but the salary of most people, 80% of people have a monthly salary of 3000, then the house per square meter should not exceed 3000, otherwise how can ordinary people buy a house.
Of course, this is just the wishful thinking of ordinary people, today's society is like this, there is no mortgage and car loan, what does the boss limit you, think about the monthly payment, even if you have to do the hard and tiring work, this is the essence of exploitation, and we can't escape after all.