Key takeaways:
From January to May, the national real estate supply and demand data is generally in the process of deep adjustment, and with the active implementation of various policies on May 17, the follow-up market has a basis for further stabilization.
The decline in the real estate investment index was slightly larger, and the decline in the construction index narrowed. From January to May, the real estate development investment index was generally in the range of a slightly larger decline. The big problem on the investment side this year is that some high-quality real estate companies are actually slightly conservative in terms of investment in 2023. The decline in the area of new housing starts continues to be in a narrowing trend, indicating that under the current round of property market adjustment, real estate companies with relatively good financial conditions have received greater support in the financing coordination mechanism, which also helps to curb the decline in the index of new real estate starts. The housing completion data has declined due to the impact of past investment and land acquisition data, but all localities are generally actively promoting the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings.
The sales index of commercial housing fell steadily, and the area for sale was under great pressure. From January to May, there is still a certain pressure on the sales data of commercial housing, which also shows that all localities should continue to do a good job in destocking. Housing prices have risen compared with January to April, and the recent major actions in various places are the adjustment of land price limit measures, especially in large cities, indicating that the work of stabilizing housing prices continues. Compared with the end of April, only the area of commercial buildings for sale increased among the three types of properties for sale at the end of May, and the industry needs to pay attention to and be vigilant against the inventory risk of such properties.
The decline in the funds in place for real estate enterprises has narrowed, and financing needs to continue to exert force and support. From January to May, the data on the arrival of funds for real estate enterprises was generally improving, that is, the decline was generally narrowing. However, since such indicators are still negative growth, it is still necessary to pay attention to the financial situation of enterprises. In the future, it is necessary to continue to exert efforts and support in terms of financing, and to speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds related to various financing coordination mechanisms.
One
The decline in the real estate investment index was slightly larger, and the decline in the construction index narrowed
1. The amount of development investment is generally in the range of a slightly larger decline
From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4,063.2 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year. Among them, residential investment was 3,082.4 billion yuan, down 10.6 percent year-on-year. The real estate development investment index is generally in the range of slightly larger declines. The big problem on the investment side this year is that some high-quality real estate companies are actually slightly conservative in terms of investment in 2023. We believe that we should further make efforts to improve the sales of real estate companies and boost investment confidence in the future. In addition, the recent mode of purchasing and building in various places has objectively reduced the potential inventory pressure in the real estate market, which will help some real estate companies to withdraw funds and accelerate the development and investment of existing projects.
2. The decline in the area of new housing starts continued to narrow
From January to May, the new construction area of real estate development enterprises was 300.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%. Among them, the area of new residential construction was 217.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0%. The indicator's recent decline has continued to be narrowing. It shows that under the current round of property market adjustment, the investment competition between real estate companies has changed, and the surviving real estate companies are generally real estate companies with relatively good financial conditions. Such enterprises have received greater support in the financing coordination mechanism, which has also helped to curb the downward trend of new real estate construction indicators.
3. The decline in the area of housing completions narrowed slightly
From January to May, the completed area of real estate development enterprises was 222.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 161.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. The completion data has declined due to the impact of past investment and land acquisition data, but all localities are generally actively promoting the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings. Some of the risks that the market needs to be wary of in the near future are that most of the homes that have been completed so far have been sold around 2020, when prices were on the high side. Therefore, when the project is delivered, if the quality problems and housing price decline are superimposed, it is easy to produce public opinion problems in delivery.
Two
The sales index of commercial housing fell steadily, and the area for sale was under great pressure
1. The decline in the sales area of commercial housing was basically stable
From January to May, the sales area of newly built commercial buildings nationwide was 366.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 23.6% year-on-year. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 3,566.5 billion yuan, down 27.9 percent year-on-year, of which residential sales fell by 30.5 percent year-on-year. There is still a certain amount of pressure on the sales data, which also shows that all localities must continue to do a good job in destocking. At present, the National Standing Committee clearly encourages all localities to emancipate their minds, which should be said to be very critical to the boost of sales data, and also requires all localities to actively study the work content and new mechanisms of destocking. It is suggested that all localities should study the new market demand in terms of "selling the old", and then encourage more demand for replacement houses to join the ranks of subscribing to new houses, so as to truly promote the circular development of the market.
2. The average sales price of commercial housing has increased compared with the previous month
From January to May, the average sales price of commercial housing in China was 9,733 yuan/square meter. This indicator has risen from January to April. Recently, the relatively big move in various places is to adjust the price limit measures for land, especially in large cities. In fact, this shows that the work of stabilizing housing prices continues. With the development of various housing price stabilization work, housing price indicators and housing price expectations will continue to improve. Housing prices are stable, and market confidence will be stable.
3. The pressure on the area of commercial housing for sale is generally large
At the end of May, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 742.56 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 24.6% year-on-year. The pressure on the area for sale is still relatively large, and all localities are required to actively take the destocking work as an important task at present. From the perspective of the cost performance of buying a house, what you see for the existing house project is what you get, and the advantages of related subscription still exist. Judging from the recent feedback from various places, there are also more marketing services such as existing house sales, and there will still be a better destocking market in the follow-up combined with existing policies.
From the perspective of the trend of the area for sale of the three types of properties, the area of residential properties for sale reached the highest point in early 2016, and has been fluctuating downward for more than three years since then, and the area of residential area for sale at the end of 2019 no longer continued to decline, entering a steady upward trend, reaching a historically high level at the end of February this year, and beginning to decline in March. The area of commercial buildings for sale reached a record high in early 2017 and then slowly declined, showing a relatively stable trend overall. The overall area of office buildings for sale showed a steady upward trend, reaching an all-time high at the end of April this year. Compared with the end of April, only the area of commercial buildings for sale increased among the three types of properties for sale at the end of May, and the industry needs to pay attention to and be vigilant against the inventory risk of such properties.
Three
The decline in the funds in place for real estate enterprises has narrowed, and financing needs to continue to exert force and support
From January to May, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4,257.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%. Among them, domestic loans were 681 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year; the utilization of foreign capital was 1.1 billion yuan, down 20.3% year-on-year; self-raised funds were 1,481.6 billion yuan, down 9.8 percent year-on-year; deposits and advance receipts were 1,258.4 billion yuan, down 36.7% year-on-year; personal mortgage loans were 619.1 billion yuan, down 40.2 percent year-on-year. The recent data on the availability of funds is generally improving, that is, the decline is generally narrowing. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the financial situation of enterprises. In the second quarter, there was a lot less news about the financial pressure of enterprises, which also shows that all kinds of capital supplies are in place. However, since such indicators are still negative, it is necessary to continue to exert efforts and support in terms of financing in the future, and to speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds related to various financing coordination mechanisms.
Four
Trends and strategies
Summarizing the data for the first five months of this year, it is generally in the process of deep adjustment. First, market confidence is still in the process of recovery and recovery, but it needs to be further boosted, and its foundation needs to be further consolidated. Second, it is expected that there will be a new round of destocking and reserve work in various places, which will also help to better promote the development of destocking work, which will have a positive effect on boosting sales and improving various indicators. (Source: E-House Research Institute)