After the rising market price of Chinese herbal medicines, vitamins, which are essential health products for many families, have also come to the news of price increases.
"618 this year, I saw that the price of calcium tablets with D3 had risen by nearly 20%, so I didn't stock up." Aunt Hangzhou Rencheng said that the whole family has been taking vitamin products for health care for many years, but it is the first time that such an obvious price increase.
In recent years, the vitamin market has been sluggish, and prices have fallen to low levels several times. However, since the beginning of this year, vitamin prices have shown a gradual upward trend, especially since June, when vitamin prices have skyrocketed and have basically returned to the average level of previous years. The stock prices of related companies have also risen. Among them, vitamin D3 rose by nearly 50% from the previous month, with an average price of 82 yuan/kg, and some people in the market even shouted to "rise to 300 yuan/kg".
According to the Financial Associated Press, it is pointed out that vitamins are a typical oligopoly industry, and when the upstream raw material production capacity is limited or major manufacturers are out of stock, it will inevitably lead to a surge in prices, which is easy to cause a short-term rapid rise in prices. In the past two or three years, vitamins as a whole have been in a downward cycle, and manufacturers' performance has continued to shrink, reaching the bottom in 2023.
According to the China Securities Journal, the agency believes that the current breeding profits are expected to rebound and then drive the demand for vitamins, and are optimistic about the follow-up vitamin price rise, which focuses on the highly concentrated supply of VA, VE, VB1, VB6.
The price of vitamin D3 has skyrocketed by nearly 50% in a single month
Some people shouted to "see 300 yuan/kg"
Baichuan Yingfu data shows that on June 27, the average market price of vitamin D3 was 82 yuan/kg, up 5.13% from the previous day and 49.09% from the previous month. Vitamin D3 manufacturers continue to stop reporting, and the bullish sentiment of reluctance to sell in the dealer market is becoming stronger. At present, the dealer market price is more chaotic, but the overall bullish sentiment for the market outlook is higher, the attitude of reluctance to sell is strong, most of the current suspension of quotations, a small number of reference order prices rose to 80-85 yuan / kg, the actual market volume in the later period can rise with it, need to continue to wait and see. In the later stage, the manufacturer's quotation is bullish, and the dealer market is expected to adjust accordingly.
In addition, vitamin price data show that on June 27, the price of water-soluble vitamin D3 of garden biological feed reached 100 yuan/kg, and the price of feed-grade water-soluble vitamin D3 of Xinhecheng and Guobang was 95 yuan/kg. The quotation of feed-grade vitamin D3 such as Garden Biological, Xinhecheng and Guobang has also reached 90 yuan/kg.
According to the Financial Associated Press, due to the main manufacturers in the state of suspension of signing and reporting, the focus of market speculation has shifted down to the traders, after experiencing last year's dismal market, traders are eager to seize the opportunity to turn over, and the speculation is strong, and there is no shortage of voices in the market to "see 300 yuan / kg".
"We just did a round of market research, and traders are really crazy about finding goods (D3)!" Chen Rong, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, said in an interview that considering the high enthusiasm of downstream hoarding, this round of vitamin D3 market may only begin. A vitamin trader in Henan Province holds a similar view, and after years of silence, the vitamin market has begun to stir, reminding him of the vitamin bull market of 2017. At that time, vitamin A soared by nearly 10 yuan in 4 months, setting a record of 1400 yuan/kg, and vitamin D3 also climbed to a high of 600 yuan/kg in the same period.
In the face of the hot market, Zhuochuang information analyst Wang Lin is cautious, he believes that this round of vitamin D3 price increase is led by manufacturers, by shrinking the supply to raise the price, but whether the actual volume can rise sharply remains to be further observed, "the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries has indeed increased, but the actual transaction has to wait and see." He stressed that at this stage, the demand for the main terminal feed industry for vitamins has not rebounded significantly, and he is cautious about the sustainability of this round of market in the absence of terminal demand support.
It is understood that vitamin D3 is a trace organic substance that must be ingested by humans and animals, and the market demand mainly comes from its downstream feed, food, medicine and other fields. Due to the high concentration of the vitamin D3 industry, the price increase may benefit the leading enterprises in the industry more, thus affecting the industry pattern. Since the beginning of this year, the price of vitamin D3 has begun to bottom out, with a monthly increase of nearly 50%, and has now recovered to the average level of recent years.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, Professor Deng Yong, director of the Health Rule of Law Research and Innovation Transformation Center of Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, said in an interview with reporters that the rise in vitamin D3 prices is the result of a combination of factors, such as the implementation of new national standards, limited supply and increasing demand, the market is reluctant to sell, oligopoly market structure, etc., in addition, it is also affected by factors such as rising international shipping costs.
"As for whether the price increase of vitamin D3 will continue, it depends on whether the factors mentioned above persist. The increase in the price of vitamin D3 may also have an impact on the price of other vitamin categories, especially those that have similarities to vitamin D3 in terms of production and application. Deng Yong said that the shock of vitamin stocks and the price of vitamin D3 has a certain relationship, in the future, the rise in vitamin D3 prices may make investors expect the earnings of related companies to increase, thereby further promoting the rise in stock prices.
The price of multivitamins has risen
In fact, entering 2024, the price of multivitamins has also begun to rise. According to Flush iFinD, as of June 24, the unit price of vitamin A in 2023 will be 88 yuan/kg, an increase of 21.4% from the beginning of the year; The unit price of vitamin E was 74 yuan/kg, an increase of 25.4% from the beginning of the year; The unit price of vitamin B1 was 185 yuan/kg, an increase of 33.6% from the beginning of the year; The unit price of vitamin B6 was 147.50 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.6% from the beginning of the year.
In addition to vitamin D3, recently, the A-share vitamin leader NHU Group has implemented a significant increase in the export quotation of its feed grade VE 50% products, which has aroused widespread concern in the industry.
According to the news released by Baichuan Yingfu on June 18, in view of the rise in international shipping costs, NHU Group decided to adjust the export price of 50% of VE products to 10.5 US dollars / kg, which is converted to about 76 yuan / kg. This adjusted price has increased significantly compared with the quotation range of 72-74 yuan/kg for VE 50% in the domestic market and 8.3-8.5 euros/kg (equivalent to about 65-66 yuan/kg) for VE 50% in the European market, demonstrating the price advantage and competitiveness of VE products in the international market.
NHU said in an institutional survey in May this year that the price of vitamin products improved month-on-month, and the market was optimistic in the second quarter. As the price is expected to improve, the inventory will be transferred to downstream feed companies. In terms of pricing, the company's VA has raised its price, and VE depends on market conditions. In the future, the company will comprehensively consider the market situation and adjust the pricing strategy in a timely manner.
Recently, the price of VE market is expected to rise. According to Feed Baba, the VE plant in Shandong Province plans to stop production for maintenance from early July to early September. On May 21, the market said that the DSM-Firmenich plant was shut down for maintenance for two months. On June 12, the market said that DSM-Firmenich's VE product price was 85 yuan/kg. Zhejiang Medicine plans to stop production for maintenance for two months from mid-July. On June 18, the market said that the export quotation of NHU VE was raised to 10.5 US dollars/kg. On June 21, the market said that some domestic manufacturers quoted 90 yuan kilograms.
The net profit of related enterprises has skyrocketed
The net profit of some enterprises in the first quarter increased by more than 180 times
From the perspective of listed companies, Xinhe has become a domestic vitamin leader, with a VA (500,000 IU) production capacity of 10,000 tons and a VE oil production capacity of 20,000 tons, which can fully benefit from the rising prices of VA and VE. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.499 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.21%.
Garden Biotech is the world's leading VD3 production enterprise, with a VD3 production capacity of 3,600 tons. In addition, the company is the only company other than DSM that can produce 25-hydroxyVD3 products on a large scale, and the production process has a greater competitive advantage compared with the biological fermentation method of DSM in the Netherlands, the company's 25-hydroxy VD3 products are designed to produce 100 tons (powder) per year, and Jinxi Science and Technology Park will expand to an annual output of 1200 tons (powder). In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.41%.
Tianxin Pharmaceutical is the world's leading vitamin manufacturer, and has occupied a leading position in the field of VB6, VB1 and folic acid. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 494 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 148 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.87%.
Adisseo has a market share of about 20% of the feed vitamin A market. The company produces vitamin A through a variety of procurement channels, including purchasing raw materials from some large chemical companies. In the first quarter of 2024, Adisseo achieved revenue of 3.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.90%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18512.09%.