Provoke with the front foot and surrender with the back foot? The Philippines has reversed its commitment to cooperation with the United States and turned its head like China shouting that it wants to continue doing business.
China's rapid economic development, especially after joining the World Trade Organization, has attracted the world's attention. This has undoubtedly caused concern in the United States: If China is allowed to develop, a new competitor may emerge.
Given China's high dependence on foreign trade for economic growth, and the need to trade a large number of goods by sea, in the eyes of the United States, controlling sea routes has become the key to containing China's economic development.
(Illustration: After the China-Philippines Ren'ai Jiao incident, the US aircraft carrier quickly withdrew from the scene)
As a result, the United States has turned its attention to China's periphery. In the process, the Philippines cooperated with the United States in a series of provocative moves against China.
Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have continued to rise in recent years. In particular, the Chinese coast guard has taken tough measures against the provocations of the Philippines in response to the conflict at Second Thomas Shoal, seizing many supplies and illegal firearms.
Although the United States once again promised to support the Philippines, it immediately withdrew the two aircraft carriers after seeing that the situation was getting bigger, leaving the Philippines alone to face the wrath of the PLA.
In this context, after losing China's huge market, the Philippine economy has been hit hard, and the United States is trying to win over the Philippines through economic cooperation, drawing a big pie of "Luzon Economic Corridor" and "investment in the technology industry" to it.
But this time, the Philippines, which was beaten for provocations, finally recognized the reality.
Philippine Secretary of Trade and Industry Pascual has publicly stated that the United States has not only provided little military support, but has also failed to fulfill its commitment to invest in the Philippines.
Treasury Secretary Rector's visit to Japan is a reflection of the Philippines' determination to find new sources of investment in order to get out of its economic predicament.
(Illustration: Philippine officials seek dialogue with China and hope to continue cooperation)
In addition, the director of the Philippine National Bureau of Economic and Development (NERD) Balisacan directly ignored the previous cooperation commitments with the United States, and turned around and shouted a word to China, hoping to seek more pragmatic economic cooperation with China.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a statement emphasizing that "no war will be provoked" and hopes that differences can be resolved peacefully with China and business can continue. The outside world generally believes that the above statements by the Philippines confirm one thing, that is, the Philippines has shown weakness to China.
Perhaps, the Philippines' "lowering the tone" may seem very abrupt, but it is completely expected.
This can be understood by a thorough study of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Does anyone believe that the United States will unconditionally assume the responsibility for military protection for the Philippines, military experts say? Apparently not.
(Illustration: The U.S. military promised to help the Philippines improve its military strength, but very little was actually given)
Under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the U.S. State Department statement stressed that any attack on the Philippine "armed forces, civilian vessels, or aircraft" would trigger the implementation of the treaty.
But the so-called "trigger" does not clearly state what kind of specific actions will lead to.
For example, Article 3 of the treaty mentions that when either party is threatened with an external armed attack, the two sides will negotiate through diplomatic channels how to implement the treaty, but it does not elaborate on key details such as the form, outcome, and time frame of the negotiations.
Article 4 states that an attack on either side will be seen as a threat to the peace and security of both sides, and that this "common danger" needs to be addressed in a manner consistent with their respective constitutions, and that how to respond to it also leaves a wide range of room for interpretation.
Thus, the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is only an "alliance" on paper, but there are too many uncertainties when it comes to the details of specific implementation and military involvement.
In the final analysis, the so-called economic and military commitments made by the United States are nothing more than an attempt to make the Philippines willingly provoke China. But the reality is that only the Philippines itself can "wake up" itself to the realization that if it wants to resolve disputes, it can only play by the rules, and the United States will not give it any special rights.
And even if it could, the United States would not necessarily pay some negative price for the Philippines.