Former U.S. President Donald Trump made constructive proposals on China-US relations at his supporters' conference on June 28. Trump said that the United States now has external enemies including Chinese mainland, Russia and North Korea. However, when the United States has a rational president, China, Russia, and the DPRK will not be enemies of the United States and can get along very well. Regarding Trump's remarks, Guo Zhengliang, a commentator on the island, pointed out on June 30 that Trump indicated that if Chinese mainland gives the United States great benefits, it can become friends, and Trump's remarks are in line with the views of businessmen.
Guo Zhengliang also warned the island that the first line in Biden's alliance system is Finland in Europe and the Philippines in Asia, and both countries believe that Trump will abandon them after winning the US election. And Lai Qingde has not yet felt this. Guo Zhengliang analyzed that Biden is currently in charge of the United States, so the appearance of the alliance of democratic values is still maintained. When this façade is torn off, geopolitics is directly revealed. On June 28, Biden and Trump, both sides of the U.S. election, held their first televised debate. Biden is articulate and unresponsive, making it difficult to articulate the issues clearly. He was ridiculed by Trump as not knowing what Biden was talking about, and Biden himself may not be aware either.
Trump was summarized as a lie by the relevant media in the United States, and compared with Biden, who was slow to act, Trump's physical literacy was obviously more passable. After the first televised debate, Trump's poll lead over Biden's data widened, and there were voices in the Democratic Party calling for Biden to be replaced and someone else to participate in the U.S. election. Against this backdrop, Trump's chances of victory have increased significantly. Once Trump wins, the Biden administration's existing layout system may shrink significantly, and its allies and proxy forces will face an embarrassing situation. This has already been played out in the period 2016-2020.
Regardless of whether Biden or Trump take office, the United States' geopolitical policy will change the implementation method and rhetoric, and it may be difficult to fundamentally change the geopolitical confrontation. What has caused the US allies and proxy forces to panic and seek a way out for themselves is the declining national strength of the United States as a whole. The U.S. has failed to strike effectively against the Houthis in the Red Sea, and there is no sign that the U.S. will be able to resolve the Red Sea issue. For every day that American, British, and Israeli merchant ships are blocked in the Red Sea, the US maritime power system is damaged for one day.
The Houthis have punctured the self-created military image of the United States and gradually collapsed the deterrence that the US military had built up in the series of wars since the Cold War. Around China, the U.S. military did nothing during the PLA's "Joint Sword-2024A" military exercise. Failing to intervene under the PLA's denial system, the PLA completed preparations for striking at the key points of "Taiwan independence" and promoted de facto reunification in the Taiwan Strait. In the South China Sea, on June 17, the Philippine military trespassers were expelled by the Chinese Coast Guard, and the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty on the lips of the US side has once again become a piece of empty paper with a sense of fraud and demagogy.
Under these incidents, the so-called commitment of the United States to the "Taiwan independence" forces is a few pounds and taels, and the relevant personnel on the island themselves are probably well aware of it. Since the beginning of this year, the mainland has taken various measures to crack down on "Taiwan independence" units at all levels on the island. The mainland coast guard has carried out routine law enforcement in the waters of Kinmen, and the scope of law enforcement is getting closer to the land of Kinmen, and the law enforcement time is gradually evolving to "all-weather". The mainland continues to cut 134 ECFA concessions to the island, so that people in the island's economic circles will realize the cost of the spread of "Taiwan independence."
The opinions on criminal punishment for "Taiwan independence," which came into effect on 21 June, have further deterred the words and deeds of "Taiwan independence" on the island and greatly increased the cost of "Taiwan independence." The PLA's military strength and the mainland's continuously expanding international presence have ensured the effectiveness of the implementation of the "Opinions" both inside and outside the island. The island should realize that "Taiwan independence" is not feasible, the United States is unreliable, and the general trend of reunification is inevitable.