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Let's get acquainted with the Iron Dome air defense system. This is an air defense weapon independently developed by Israel, known as "the shield is indestructible". It consists of multiple tactical-level units capable of intercepting hundreds of incoming rockets and artillery shells at the same time.
According to the Israeli side's public information, there are 15 batteries in the entire Iron Dome system, which are distributed in the northern area near the Lebanese border. Each battery can theoretically deal with up to 800 targets at the same time, and the comprehensive interception success rate is as high as 90%. It can be said that the Iron Dome can be called an important trump card for Israel against its neighbors.
Just recently, there was shocking news from the Lebanese side that they had found a fatal hole in the Iron Dome. This is despite Israel's claim that the Iron Dome is capable of intercepting the vast majority of attacks.
But a careful analysis shows that the actual simultaneous combat capability of each anti-aircraft battery can only cover from 200 to 800 targets. Firing more than this number of rockets and shells at once would break through the Iron Dome's defenses and inflict heavy damage on Israel.
And Lebanon is well prepared. It is reported that it currently has a stockpile of more than 100,000 rockets, far exceeding the ceiling of Israel's defense capability.
It only takes a huge number of rockets to be fired at a critical moment to break through the shield of the Iron Dome and deal a heavy blow to Israel.
More critically, Iran seems to have been secretly supporting Lebanon. It has been reported that Iran has recently quietly delivered 8,000 "Katyusha" missiles to Lebanon, and its firepower is extremely fierce.
And this is only the first number to be exposed, and the real number is probably even more. It can be said that Lebanon is fully prepared for an attack on Israel.
Why did Lebanon break this big news at this time? Analysts note that this may be closely related to the current situation in the Middle East.
Israel has recently been at odds with Hamas and Iran and has maintained a high-pressure posture in the Gaza Strip. And now that Lebanon is getting better, with strong logistics and far from the threat from the front, it is a good time to launch an offensive.
In addition to the Iron Dome system, there are deeper reasons behind this new wrestling in the Middle East. For a long time, Israel has been an important ally of the United States in the Middle East, and has received strong support from the United States on many occasions.
However, in recent years, as the United States has fine-tuned its Middle East policy, Israel seems to be gradually feeling that the power of the United States is waning.
Especially after experiencing the heavy blow of the new crown epidemic, the strategic focus of the United States has shifted, and the attention to the Middle East is not as good as before. After the Biden administration took office, the United States began to emphasize "reducing its presence" in the Middle East to free up more resources to deal with the increasingly serious great power game. Against this background, Israel is clearly feeling the weakening of its power from its traditional allies.
Iran's influence in the Middle East, however, is steadily recovering. In particular, after a long period of sanctions and blockade, Iran has gradually restored relations with its neighbors through a series of strategic diplomacy in recent years. With the support of traditional allies such as Lebanon and Syria, Iran's strategic presence is growing day by day.
According to analysts, the 8,000 Katyusha missiles provided by Iran to Lebanon are only the tip of the iceberg of military cooperation between the two sides. In addition to conventional weapons such as rockets, the two countries have also carried out extensive cooperation in other areas. For example, in the civilian fields such as economy and science and technology, Iran has helped Lebanon achieve many breakthroughs. It can be said that in the Middle East, Iran is rebuilding its sphere of influence.
Faced with this situation, Israel is naturally feeling unprecedented pressure. As a traditional ally of the United States in the Middle East, it may feel that the power of its allies is weakening while its adversaries are growing, which is undoubtedly a dangerous sign.
Israel is also clearly actively seeking ways to reverse the situation. For example, it has recently been courting Arab countries in the hope of finding new partners in the Middle East.
Israel, for its part, has long viewed Lebanon as a potential security threat. Since the outbreak of the Lebanese civil war in the 80s, the Shiite Allah Party has grown in Lebanon and is regarded by Israel as the "number one threat". To this day, Israel remains wary of Allah's developments, considering it an Iranian "proxy" in Lebanon.
The nationalist sentiment between the two sides stems from both the historical hatred and the current geopolitical game. Against this backdrop, both sides are easily influenced by populist and nationalist sentiments, which in turn exacerbate antagonism and contradictions. In the event of a war, both sides may stay out of the situation and find themselves in a long-term predicament.
The military power of Lebanon and Israel has also contributed to some extent. Analysts have pointed out that although Israel has advanced military equipment, Lebanon's reserves of conventional weapons such as rockets are also difficult to underestimate. Once a war breaks out, both sides have the ability to inflict great damage on the other, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the antagonism between the two sides.
We have to ask: is there any possibility of reconciliation between Lebanon and Israel in the face of nationalism? Will the two sides be able to overcome this severe test and move towards peace? If there is a war, what will be the cost? Is there any hope for peace and security in the Middle East? We have reason to be deeply concerned about this.
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