"Buy one set get one free", and the difficult commercial and residential apartments have been reduced to "property market gifts"

There is a special product in the property market, seven or eight years ago, it was the "sweet and sweet" in the property market, because it was popular with buyers because of the unlimited purchase and unlimited loans.

In the past six months, it has appeared many times in the advertisement of "buy one set get one free", and has become a "property market giveaway".

This is a commercial and residential apartment with a commercial or office nature, but is made into a "quasi-residential" product by the developer, most of which only have a 40-year or 50-year property right. Recently, in the fancy marketing of real estate developers, commercial and residential apartments that cannot be sold have repeatedly appeared in the form of gifts, such as "buy a house, give an apartment", "buy Jiangmen, live in Guangzhou", "buy a house, give an apartment for 6 years", etc. Behind these marketing routines, how difficult is it to sell commercial and residential apartments?

Even in the first- and second-tier cities where the overall performance of the property market is acceptable, there is general pressure on the decentralization of commercial and residential apartments, and according to statistics, the inventory of commercial and residential apartments in many cities is backlogged, and the decentralization cycle is more than 8 years. In some first-tier cities, the price of commercial and residential apartments has fallen back to more than a decade ago, and the decentralization and revitalization of apartment products are imminent.

The property market frequently appears "buy one get one free"

Recently, Vanke Zhongtian Century Waterfront, a real estate project in Dongguan, launched the "buy one set get one free" activity, which has attracted a lot of attention.

The reporter learned that the total construction area of the real estate exceeds 800,000 square meters, which is one of the largest renovation projects in the main city of Dongguan, with an average price of 42,000 yuan / square meter for hardcover housing, and the project covers three to four bedrooms from 89 square meters to 195 square meters. Buyers who purchase units of 140 square meters and above between July 12 and July 28 can receive a free Vanke Shuangyue Bay Seaview Apartment (designated listing) in Huizhou, with a limited number of places on a first-come, first-served basis. Referring to the information on the public platform, the total price of the donated housing is more than 200,000 yuan.

The fancy marketing method of the real estate is regarded as a "ruthless move" launched by the developer during the downturn of the local property market.

However, this so-called "buy one get one free" is no longer an exclusive case, and in the past six months, similar "buy a house, get an apartment" offer has emerged in endlessly.

As early as January this year, the real estate "Jiahua Xinduhui" in Jiangmen, Guangdong Province put out an advertising slogan of "Buy Jiangmen, Live in Guangzhou". If you buy a house in a third-tier city, how can you still live in a first-tier city? I have to say that this advertising slogan is really attractive.

It turned out that the project has been sold for more than three years, and some large flat-floor units are still being sold, and the "gift" is a commercial and residential apartment in Huadu, Guangzhou, and the projects in Guangzhou and Jiangmen belong to the same developer, both of which are Hong Kong K. Wah Group.

Moreover, the so-called "send" also has some routines - in fact, it is a down payment for an apartment in Guangzhou, and an apartment in Guangzhou is also hundreds of thousands, and the down payment is only more than 100,000 yuan, which is about equivalent to buying a residence in Jiangmen with some discounts.

In June this year, the Jingji Zhinong Shanhai Mansion in Bao'an, Shenzhen, also launched the activity of "buy a house and get an apartment", the project advertised at the time that if you buy a house of about 78 square meters, you will get a 38-square-meter apartment for free, "10,000 yuan per month, and two suites in hand".

This is also a project that is not smooth, the reporter learned that the residential part of Jingji Zhinong Shanhai Mansion entered the market as early as 2022, and the apartment part was certified to enter the market in August 2023, and there are still some tail goods that will be sold until June 2024. In order to liquidate, the discount of the property is relatively large, and the customer can choose to buy a house at 85% off the record price of the residence, or choose to buy a residence at the normal record price, and receive an apartment at the same time.

In May this year, there was also a real estate project in Guangzhou, Poly Jinshangyin, which launched a "buy one get one free" activity, but the right to use the apartment was given away.

Compared with the other real estate mentioned above, the hard conditions of Poly Jin Shangyin are slightly better, the real estate is about 700 meters away from Kengkou Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 1, equipped with 36 classes of primary schools, and the units for sale are all lined up slab buildings, two ladders and four households. The apartments "sent" by the real estate are also in the same neighborhood, next to the residential building. Guangzhou's apartment products are not cheap, the total price of apartments in the community is about 780,000, and the real estate also explains that only 6 years of use rights for apartments are given, and if you choose the right to use the apartment, you can no longer participate in other discounts.

The dilemma of apartment decentralization has intensified

In general, although many real estate projects have advertised "buy a house and give an apartment" in the past six months, the gimmick is greater than the reality.

However, it is worth noting that commercial and residential apartments have gradually become the role of "property market giveaways", and its de-escalation dilemma can be seen.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of May this year, the area of commercial housing for sale in the country reached 52.14 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; The area of commercial buildings for sale reached 143 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.

Specifically, in many first- and second-tier cities where the overall performance of the property market is acceptable, there is also great pressure on the decentralization of commercial and residential apartments.

CRIC data shows that in the past three years, the transaction volume of apartments in Guangzhou has declined year by year, and last year, the supply of new commercial and residential apartments in Guangzhou was only 8,115 units, and 9,647 units were sold, which was the first time since 2012 that the supply and demand data both fell below 10,000 units. As of March 2024, Guangzhou's apartment inventory has reached 28,155 units, and the decommissioning period is as long as 31 months. The most difficult thing to decentralize apartments in Guangzhou is small apartment products, with the largest number of inventory units in the area range of 30 square meters to 50 square meters.

As early as 2020, Shenzhen stopped the approval of commercial and residential apartment land, and in September last year, a new policy was introduced to allow Hong Kong and Macao residents to freely buy non-residential commercial properties or business apartments in Shenzhen, and the restrictions on the number of units were relaxed. Even with a multi-pronged policy, some commercial and residential apartment projects for sale in Shenzhen are still difficult to decentralize, with some projects being sold at a 5% discount at the record price, and some projects only signing 3 sets online in the first 4 months of opening.

The second-tier city of Dongguan also saw a significant decrease in the supply and transaction of apartment products. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Research Institute, in the first half of 2024, the number of apartment products supplied in Dongguan will be 856 units, a year-on-year decrease of more than 70%; In terms of transactions, a total of 2,051 apartments were sold in Dongguan in the first half of the year, down 35% year-on-year.

Earlier this month, Changsha City, Hunan Province, issued new rules saying that it would convert the property rights of eligible commercial and residential apartments into residential properties. Behind this, the pressure of commercial and residential apartments in Changsha should not be underestimated. According to the Hunan Central Plains Research Institute, as of May 2024, the inventory of commercial and residential properties in the five districts of Changsha has reached 2.5 million square meters (excluding existing houses), of which the inventory of commercial and residential apartments has reached 1.35 million square meters, and the decommissioning cycle is as high as 58 months.

However, due to the fact that the "commercial to residential" policy has not been rolled out on a large scale, and real estate companies have to go through a long process to apply to the government for a change in nature.

Prices are falling back to a decade ago

Commercial and residential apartments, which are not easy to sell today, used to be the "sweet and sweet" in the real estate market.

From 2016 to 2018, in the hottest years of the property market, commercial and residential apartments became a popular alternative to residential buildings because of unlimited purchases and loans, and sales were once hot.

In the wave of property market that began in 2016, various cities introduced many restrictive measures for residential products, such as purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and unit size restrictions. When buyers no longer have the qualifications to buy a house, or they can't shake the "admission ticket" because the property market is too hot, but they want to invest in a house with a good location, commercial and residential apartments have become the first choice.

Historical data shows that in 2016, 42,306 serviced apartments were traded in Shanghai, accounting for about a quarter of the total number of new commercial housing transactions that year, and the average transaction price of serviced apartments in the city was 24,937 yuan/square meter, an increase of 13.6% year-on-year.

In 2017, due to the introduction of residential purchase restrictions, the market of commercial and residential apartments in Changsha was booming, and the selling price even reached 1.5 times that of surrounding residential projects, and the hotel and serviced apartments in the core urban area stood at 20,000 yuan per square meter.

The same situation has also happened in Chengdu, in 2018, the Chengdu property market turned hot, in May of that year, the "strictest purchase order" was introduced, after that, many people who are not qualified to buy a house but need to buy a house turned their goals to apartment products, luxury flat-floor apartments in the Chengdu market is also a special existence, the price at that time is several times that of ordinary commercial housing.

However, in recent years, with the relaxation of property market regulation, the purchase threshold of residential buildings has gradually decreased, and even residential buildings are no longer easy to sell during the downturn of the property market, and the removal of apartments has become more and more difficult.

Zhuge Housing Data Research Center believes that since 2017, core cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Xiamen have successively issued policies to restrict the "commercial to residential", which has also had an immediate impact on the apartment market, resulting in a "big landslide" of commercial and residential apartments, and many buyers and some investors who want to use apartments as short-term transitional residences have been forced to leave.

According to the research center, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and other cities have seen high apartment inventories since 2017, with the longest in Shanghai exceeding 100 months and Guangzhou being the shortest at 40 months.

In terms of prices, the prices of commercial and residential apartments in many cities have fallen back to more than a decade ago. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the statistics of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, the average transaction price of commercial and residential apartments in Beijing reached its peak in 2017, reaching 35,668 yuan/square meter, while the average transaction price in 2023 is only 21,366 yuan/square meter, which is lower than the average price in 2010.

Zhuge Housing Data Research Center believes that at present, there is a backlog of inventory of commercial and residential apartment projects in many cities, and the decommissioning cycle is more than 8 years, which has a serious impact on real estate companies and the market.

Zhang Hongwei, the founder of Jingjian Consulting, told reporters that when it came to real estate destocking in the past, we generally associated it with residential destocking, but in fact, the pressure on destocking of commercial projects is also very great.

In order to solve the problem of the difficulty of de-commercializing and residential apartments, Wanning and Changsha in Hainan have recently allowed qualified commercial office property rights to transform their properties into residential property rights, and some projects have been declared. Zhang Hongwei suggested that more cities with pressure on the inventory of commercial and residential apartments should follow this policy, in addition, at present, many places through the government open solicitation or local state-owned enterprises to purchase the stock of commercial housing for affordable housing, Zhang Hongwei suggested that apartment projects should also be included in the scope of government storage.

Zhuge Housing Data Research Center believes that in order to solve the problem of overstocking of commercial and residential apartments, first of all, appropriate adjustments can be made in terms of policies, and restrictions on buyers, restrictions on the minimum divided area, and restrictions on purchases can be optimized and relaxed according to the specific conditions of the market; secondly, it can provide certain financial inclination to buyers, such as preferential subsidies; In addition, we will support the conversion of commercial and residential projects into long-term rental housing and public rental housing, and take a multi-pronged approach to help revitalize the stock of housing.

(This article is from Yicai)