Commercial and residential apartments open the giveaway mode: the removal cycle is as long as 31 months? The "embarrassing journey" of business reform and the idea of breaking the game
In the vast ocean of the real estate market, have we ushered in a new "giveaway era", in which the "buy a house and get an apartment free" promotion is like a mirage to attract the attention of home buyers? Hello everyone, I'm Twenty Twenty, when Guangzhou's apartment inventory is like a stranded giant ship, does the 31-month decommissioning cycle indicate a long wait? In the face of the inventory backlog in the commercial and residential apartment market, can the "commercial to residential" policy in Wanning and Changsha really bring vitality to the property market like Lucky Star Chinese Restaurant? And the heated discussion of experts on this, does it reflect the complex emotions of the property market?
First, the "business to residence" is restricted, and the market is cold
After reading this news about commercial and residential apartments, my first feeling was like being poured a basin of cold water. I was expecting commercial and residential apartments to shine in the real estate market, but I didn't expect that many policies restricting "commercial to residential" directly gave it a heavy blow. It's like an actor who is full of passion and ready to perform on stage, and is suddenly notified that the show is canceled, which is called a loss.
Take the data as an example, as of the end of May 2024, the area of office properties in the commercial housing for sale in the country reached 52.14 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; The area of commercial space for sale reached 143 million square meters, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year. This growing number is like a constant accumulation of ice cubes, making the market cooler and colder. The inventory backlog is serious, and the price has even fallen back to the level of more than a decade ago, as if time has gone backwards, and all efforts have been in vain.
Second, the promotion means are frequent, and the effect is not good
In the context of the difficult decentralization, developers are racking their brains, and various promotional methods are emerging in an endless stream. What "buy one get one free" sounds tempting, but it is like a gust of wind blowing, although it brings a hint of coolness, but it does not really change the coldness of the market.
Vanke Zhongtian Century Waterfront in Dongguan and Jingji Zhinong Shanhai Mansion in Bao'an, Shenzhen have made moves, but buyers don't seem to buy it. It's like you're desperately trying to sell ice cream on a cold winter day, and even if you scream it out of your throat, few people will want to patronize it.
Third, the de-industrialization cycle is long, and cities have their own difficulties
The de-commercialization cycle of commercial and residential apartments in many cities is facing huge challenges, and it feels like groping in the long dark night, and there is still no way out.
Guangzhou's apartment inventory reached 28,155 units, and the de-escalation period was as long as 31 months, especially for small apartment products of 30 square meters to 50 square meters. Shenzhen's commercial and residential apartment market is not much better, the unsalable situation is serious, and the multi-pronged policy will not help, just like giving a patient a bunch of medicine, but the condition does not improve. In the first half of 2024, the number of apartment units in Dongguan fell by more than 70% year-on-year, and the transaction fell by 35% year-on-year, which is simply jumping from one fire pit to another. With an inventory of 2.5 million square meters of commercial and residential properties in the five districts of Changsha, Hunan Province, and a 58-month decommissioning period, the waiting time is so long that people feel as if they can hear the ticking of the clock in their ears, but they never wait for the arrival of spring.
Fourth, the dawn of policy is emerging, and efforts are still needed in the future
It's not all bad news, though. Some regions have begun to try the policy of "business to residence", which is like a ray of light in the darkness, giving people hope.
The cities of Wanning and Changsha in Hainan have successively introduced policies to allow eligible commercial office property rights to change their nature into residential property rights. Zhuge Housing Data Research Center suggested that appropriate adjustments can be made in terms of policies, optimizing and relaxing restrictions on buyers, providing preferential subsidies for funds, supporting commercial and residential projects to be changed to long-term rental housing and public rental housing, and taking a multi-pronged approach to help revitalize the stock of housing. But this is only the beginning, the outstanding problem of the overall surplus of commercial housing still needs to be paid attention to and solved as a whole by the whole country, just like a long marathon, we have just started.
Is the "giveaway era" of commercial and residential apartments just a temporary move for the property market to self-regulate, or is it an inevitable trend under the guidance of policies? Behind this seemingly buy-one-get-one-free feast, should we think deeply about the real needs of the market and the future development direction? With the gradual advancement of the "commercial to residential" policy, can it really solve the problem of de-commercialization of commercial and residential apartments, or does it only provide temporary comfort for the property market? In the end, can we find our own place in this property market drama and grasp our own opportunities? When the dust settles, how will we evaluate the status and role of commercial and residential apartments in the history of the real estate market in the "giveaway era"? Above, what are your thoughts on this? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area for correction, thank you for your attention
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