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There is not much time left for Volkswagen
Written by Chen Dengxin
Editor/Meng Huiyuan
Volkswagen, handing over a bad report card.
According to Official Volkswagen news, despite strong orders, the shortage of parts has hit production, with global deliveries of 8.88 million units in 2021, down 4.5% year-on-year and a new low since 2011.
Toiled all year, one night back to ten years ago.
China, its largest single market, is showing signs of fatigue: Volkswagen sold 3.3 million vehicles in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong in 2021, down 14.1% year-on-year.
Among them, the Volkswagen ID family, which has high hopes, has not completed the annual sales target.
Despite this, according to multiple media reports, Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan still has a vision for the ID family in 2022: "Quite optimistic that we will see the actual sales volume double." ”
The ID family KPI has doubled, how difficult is it to complete? After the change of coach, will the pain points of the ID family be solved? All In New Energy Volkswagen, how long will it take to "suffer"?
The KPI is conservative, but there is still an uphill battle to be fought
The sales of the Volkswagen ID family are very different at home and abroad.
In Europe, quite popular, can be called Tesla, according to the EU-EVs.com tracking of the 11 European countries data show that Tesla Model 3 sales of 93545 vehicles, ranking first in the market, while volkswagen ID.3, ID.4 sales of 49502, 41711 vehicles, respectively, ranked third and fourth.
In China, it is difficult to say a word.
At present, the Volkswagen ID family has a total of five models in China, with a total sales volume of 70,625 vehicles in 2021, compared with the previous official expectation of 80,000 to 100,000 vehicles, which means that the expected lower limit has not been reached.
Volkswagen ID family sales trend chart in 2021
In the same period, China's new energy vehicles showed a blowout trend.
According to data from the Association of Passenger Vehicles, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 were 3.312 million units, up 181.0% year-on-year; retail sales were 2.989 million units, up 169.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous forecast of only 2 million units for the whole year.
Beyond expectations, the new car-making forces are smiling.
Tesla delivered 936,200 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year, while Xiaopeng Motors, Weilai Automobile and Ideal Automobile also exceeded 90,000 units.
In contrast, Volkswagen did not expect to be happy, but instead expected the ID family to double sales.
A market source told Zinc Scale that its 2022 goal is a bit conservative: "In the last four months, volkswagen ID sales have exceeded 10,000 consecutively, as long as this momentum remains unchanged, lying down will complete the task." ”
After all, doubling sales = 141,250 units, evenly spread to only 11,771 units per month, and from October to December 2021, the Volkswagen series has sold more than 12,000 units for three consecutive months.
The above-mentioned market participants further said that the Volkswagen ID family still has a hard battle to fight.
From January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% from the 2021 basis, and the subsidy will reduce or push up the cost of car purchase, which will deter some price-sensitive consumers.
In addition, the tight supply chain trend, including chips and power batteries, may continue, and will become the biggest "roadblock" in the delivery of new energy vehicles, before the Volkswagen ID family was trapped by the lack of cores, which affected annual sales.
All In new energy, three major pain points are difficult to solve
For the sake of KPIs, Volkswagen is also rearranging its troops.
According to relevant news, Feng Sihan will leave in August 2022 and will be replaced by Volkswagen Global CEO Bered, a veteran who has served Volkswagen for nearly 30 years.
This means that Beryder will pick two ends on one shoulder, revealing that Volkswagen attaches more importance to the Chinese market, and the sales of the Volkswagen ID family in China are bound to become the focus of its attention.
At present, the Volkswagen ID family has not yet shaken off the water and soil in China, which tests the wisdom of Bered.
First, central European market preferences are different.
Volkswagen's roots are in Europe, where European consumers' perception of new energy vehicles is biased towards travel tools, while Chinese consumers prefer technology, fashion and trends.
In this regard, PwC has an in-depth analysis: "The ID family is an excellent electric vehicle, but it is not smart enough. Driven by Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, the Chinese market has entered the second stage of electric vehicles: electric vehicles + smart cars. Electric vehicles that are not smart enough are what BYD, BAIC and Roewe did a decade ago. Europe is still in the first stage, so the ID family can sell well in Europe, but in China the response is flat. ”
That is to say, due to the unsynchronized development of the market, the ID family takes more care of the feelings of European consumers, which makes some Young Chinese people not cold to them.
Second, the authority of the Chinese region is not high enough.
In fact, Volkswagen also recognizes the importance of localization, and also promotes localization research and development, trying to make up for shortcomings, but from the actual effect, it seems that it has not been recognized by consumers.
In this regard, some insiders have publicly stated that the problem lies in the fact that the authority in China is not high enough.
The "Car Market Story" interviewed a former employee of Volkswagen, which also confirmed the above point of view: "ID.4 This car machine is different, all the interfaces related to car control, the German headquarters are not open, the Chinese team can only be responsible for UI optimization, what is the significance of such localization research and development?" ”
Volkswagen ID.4
Third, the sales system needs to be improved.
The ID family adopts an agent sales system that combines online and offline, and has also realized separate operation from fuel vehicles, but it has not seized the business circle on a large scale like the new car-making forces.
It should be noted that in the past two years, the business district has become a must for Tesla, Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal Automobile, Weilai Automobile, Nezha Automobile and other new car-making forces at home and abroad.
In this regard, some institutional analysts believe that "high-quality high-end shopping malls have a large and stable high-income customer base, and have become a very important place for new energy vehicles to establish brands and promote products." ”
In other words, seizing the business circle can not only quickly build brand awareness, establish a clear brand recognition for consumers, but also narrow the distance with consumers with professional and intimate services and enhance consumers' sense of identity.
How long will the "pain" of transformation last?
It can be seen from the above that Volkswagen has encountered difficult problems in promoting new energy.
In fact, in order to avoid becoming the second "Nokia", Volkswagen decided all in new energy from 2019, "the era of traditional car manufacturers is over".
However, the transformation has not been easy.
According to the latest financial report of Volkswagen Group, the operating income in the third quarter of 2021 was 56.93 billion euros, down 4.1% year-on-year; the operating profit was 2.596 billion euros, down 18.44% year-on-year; the operating profit margin was 4.9%, compared with 5.4% in the same period last year, down 0.5 percentage points.
Operating margin decreased year-on-year
In this context, Herbert Diess, CEO of volkswagen group, gave up some of his real power in exchange for the board of directors agreeing to continue to promote the strategy of All In New Energy.
After all, Volkswagen Group expects that by 2030, the market share of electric vehicles will be basically the same as that of fuel vehicles, and Volkswagen cannot be absent from this card table.
Despite the current setbacks, Volkswagen still has cards to play.
On the one hand, we have built our own power battery factories and mastered the right to speak in the supply chain.
In the era of new energy, the status of power batteries is like the engine of fuel vehicles, and the importance is visible to the naked eye, so Volkswagen, Ford Motor, Geely Automobile, etc. have joint ventures or self-built battery factories.
An industry insider told Zinc Scale: "With the continuous iteration of technology, the power battery will eventually mature, master this core, will not be stuck neck, you look at the first echelon of fuel vehicles car companies, who did not master the engine technology? ”
According to Volkswagen's plan, 6 battery factories will be built in Europe before 2030, each with a production capacity of 40GWh and a total production capacity of 240GWh, which means that in this round of new energy vehicles, it is eager to ensure the stability of power battery supply and thus solve its worries.
On the other hand, it reduces production costs and aspires to enhance competitiveness.
Is developing self-developed standardized batteries, 2023 will be compatible with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, solid-state batteries and other specifications, according to Volkswagen estimates, unified battery specifications production costs will be reduced by 50%; layout battery recycling industry chain, through recycling channels to reduce the procurement cost of raw materials; reduce 60% of fuel vehicle models, improve the universality of parts, reduce research and development costs...
All in all, Volkswagen's new energy transformation into a deep-water area should not only clarify the internal relationship and reduce the resistance of localization, but also strive to break through and seek to gain a firm foothold in the head-on competition with new car-making forces at home and abroad.
At the moment, there are still old books to eat, but there is not much time left for Volkswagen.
END
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