The stormy global economy, the lips are cold (below)
There are other ways to control inflation, one is to increase labor productivity, that is, technological improvement.
The second is to go directly out to grab money, grab other people's assets, inflation is exported, and it is others who are inflationary.
The first method is actually contradictory, because the big inflation itself will lead to a sharp rise in various production costs, inhibit labor productivity and scientific and technological innovation, in the case of large inflation to talk about the return of manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation is not reliable, large inflation will only lead to further migration of manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation progress is slow.
The second is easy to achieve, so developed countries usually tend to grab money outside the world during the inflation cycle and leave inflation to others.
There is also a fundamental problem with inflation, which is whether inflation is benign or malignant.
If inflation is caused by economic growth leading to economic overheating, this is moderate inflation, and it is only a normal economic cycle to curb inflation by raising interest rates, making countercyclical adjustments, and preventing the economy from overheating.
But if inflation is not economic overheating caused by economic growth, but other reasons, such as the global epidemic caused by the Fed's large release of water, the long new crown caused by the decline in the labor force participation rate and other factors, and the long-term stagnation of the economy, it is more troublesome.
This situation is called stagflation, that is, economic stagnation + inflation.
Stagflation is also inflation, but also to raise interest rates to recover liquidity to control inflation, and the economy is already stagnant, but also continue to raise interest rates, will lead to more difficult economy.
Therefore, stagflation is the most terrible economic form, and in the case of stagflation, the economy and inflation will always die one.
Of course, unless inflation can be transferred externally, it is someone else who dies.
Therefore, economic stagflation, especially when developed countries fall into stagflation, is prone to international trade conflicts and even world wars.
In fact, if it were not for nuclear deterrence and the balance of nuclear terror, I am afraid that the third world war would already be in full swing.
In recent years, trade wars, scientific and technological wars, biological warfare, financial wars, etc. can actually be regarded as a new model of the third world war.
The economic downturn, the continuous interest rate hike, and the continuous surge in U.S. bond yields have led to a continuous rise in the cost of borrowing, which is the dilemma facing the United States and even Europe.
Of course, there are many difficulties in China, such as huge real estate risks, residents' debt risks, insufficient consumption, etc. I often say, fortunately, there is no big inflation yet.
In this situation, no one can be left alone.
Fortunately, although the domestic economy is also poor, the cost of living has not risen significantly, and if there is another big inflation in the future, everyone can experience a real European and American dilemma.
Of course, I hope this does not happen.
However, the domestic manufacturing industry is developed, the capacity is overcapacity, and the possibility of large inflation is not great.
