In economic life, almost all the propositions that choose one or the other, the conclusion is balance.
This is the different characteristics of economics, in essence, sociology is the same, political science, military science is to reduce the dimensionality of the attack, in order to kill the opponent and then quickly; When the long sword of the Qin people swung towards the Zhao State, the 400,000 soldiers had already surrendered, and they were still all pitted. What is the balance between Russia and Ukraine? What is the balance between Palestine and Israel? It's a bit harder, however, all economic principles are the principle of equilibrium.
The relationship between housing prices and the overall economy, who benefits from whom? Who suffers from whom?
If you want to find the roots, of course, it is the internal driving force of the economy that promotes the marketization of real estate. If there is no demand, what is the house price to talk about? At that time, the young teachers in the university, if they didn't mix for seven or eight years, it was difficult to divide the house, Zhou Rong in "The World", left to not eat the fireworks in the world, and Cai Xiaoguang entrusted the director of the room; At that time, Shanghai was also a metropolis that the people of the whole country looked forward to, with a per capita housing area of only more than four square meters, a huge demand, and the national strength was not enough to meet such a huge beautiful yearning, so the house was commercialized. It is the development of the economy that puts the chariot of real estate on the track of potential demand.
There are three important switches to the magical development of real estate.
The most noteworthy switch is the tax reform.
As a result of the tax reform, the local government has 55% of the financial power, so should it bear 55% of the administrative power?
No, the place in China is not a feudal town, and it still has to bear 85% of the power; This distribution relationship defines the big picture of real estate in the future, why? It is precisely because there is little financial power and more power that it has to make up for it, which imitates Hong Kong; The difference is that Hong Kong is an authentic market economy, and the rule of law is greater than the rule of man. Imitated in China, of course, the rule of man is greater than the rule of law, and it is the local finance that has the final say; This is the opening of land finance, and the land transfer money is returned to the local government.
This is a huge cash cow.
In the era of national ownership, there is really a bit of a meaning shared by the whole people, the difference is in the level, you are the director or the blacksmith, and you stand out in the relationship between the subdivided houses, this is the polarization of the rich and the poor in that era, and there is nothing to do with the market economy. Who can say that the distribution of the first thirty years has achieved common prosperity?
Then. The property rights of the house belong to the state, and it is the right to use it that is assigned.
After the marketization, the public ownership of land is still symbolic and cannot be privately owned, but the house can be bought by the owner with money, and the legal environment of the market economy cannot be destroyed; As a result, it became a rent-for-sale, a 70-year rent, and the money was not a lot to spend, but the land ownership was still state.
This gives rise to two troubles, which will be there for a long time.
The first is demolition.
If it is a private property right, it has no right to demolish without special circumstances and sufficient compensation; However, the right to land belongs to the state, and the property right of the house belongs to the individual, so the property rights relationship of the ownership system is divided; This is the problem of demolition, we are difficult in how to demolish, and foreigners are difficult in how to decide on demolition. The second is the real estate tax, in principle, only the housing tax can be levied, if according to international practice, it is obvious that it cannot fill the local financial gap; If the land tax is also to be added, the legal theory does not support it, because the land belongs to the state, and the rent has been paid for 70 years, so there is no reason to pay the tax again.
The second important switch is the local shooting.
We are studying in Hong Kong, Hong Kong is such a big place, and we have one thing in common, that is, the land is basically the government, so it is also the government that leads the land auction; The degree of land privatization in the United States is very high, and land auctions can only be market-led.
The government-led, market-led, determines that China's housing prices run unfettered.
And people consciously or unconsciously define the promoter of high housing prices as developers, dream. The market is dominant, the effective demand of the market has the final say, if someone speculates on it, it will definitely fall, and it will collapse, which is not essentially different from the Bitcoin crash, and the government's regulation and control are very limited. The government-led is different, the land transfer fee is the driving force for the rise in housing prices, and the rest is not worth mentioning, because the land transfer fee accounts for 60% of the housing price, and the space has been squeezed into a seamless splicing, and no matter what fluctuations there are, it is just a wave on the river.
The third important switch is the pre-sale system
This is also a lesson taken from Hong Kong.
Hong Kong is a rule of law economy, the money is put into the designated account for supervision, and there is no problem with the pre-sale; The mainland's economy is governed by people and there is a lack of regulation, which is another problem.
Since real estate is a huge cash cow, the pre-sale system came into being inevitable, because the real estate magnitude is too large, we must play the utilization rate of funds to the extreme, in this way, real estate is essentially a game of chess, with the ownership of the land rights under the name, in the form of leasing to collect a huge amount of land transfer money, by the real estate developer will amortize the financial income into the comprehensive cost, accounting for 60% of the house price, and then through the pre-sale way to let the owner pay, the developer is a legal conversion link in the middle.
Therefore, talking about the issue of real estate is a false proposition without land finance.
The rapid expansion of real estate has produced a huge impetus for China's economic growth, with 40 million jobs, and how many small and micro enterprises in the long industrial chain are rising with it, accounting for 20 percentage points of China's total GDP; The impact of real estate on China's economy is clear.
However, there are also two fatal effects on the merits and demerits.
One is the endless sense of ground rent.
A complete explanation of the lack of sustainability of the bureaucracy.
The local finance is not planned according to taxes, but plans to expand on the land transfer money, and then eats the profits layer by layer, forming the outrageous bloodsucking that Wu Xiaoqiu said; Sucking away 70% of the people's liquidity, of course, there will be a shortage of effective demand, 60% of the money sucked up because it is not the market, it is the official road, it has been spent, neither to support the industry, nor to support employment, has become one of the important reasons for the long-term shortage of demand in China, and because the local finance has formed a huge dependence on land transfer money, the cost of the system has gone up, it is difficult to come down, this has become a dead knot, can not be solved.
Or a sunken thirty years, or a great inflation.
Second, it interrupted the market credit chain.
It is the full utilization rate of the funds promoted by the pre-sale system, once there is a blockage, it is a huge arrears in the overall market and related industrial chains, and it will inevitably occur in local finances and enterprises. Long-term arrears are the initial stage of the change in real estate supply and demand, through the arrears to dilute and cover up the huge crisis of oversupply, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises and entities in the long industrial chain, with their own sacrifices, in exchange for the already lost Chinese real estate.
Such a serious market signal can't stop three rounds of local auctions a year.
This is the background of non-market dominance and the lack of legal constraints. The second round of sacrifice directly affected the owners, and there was a serious and widespread problem of PICC delivery, which actually constituted the tipping point of the crisis, and the broken chain of credit was no longer between enterprises and enterprises, no longer between upstream and downstream, which had directly damaged the interests of home buyers, and local finances were still auctioned; This is not the isolated and disorderly expansion of Xu Jiayin, but the inevitable result of China's real estate as defined by land finance, and is a modern version of the salt and iron theory.
How to summarize the merits and demerits of China's real estate? Is it the merit or demerit of land finance, to be exact?
This is obviously not a question of quantity, what I want to say is that land finance must be put into the darling of the rule of law, otherwise it will be the super real estate medium term that Yao Yang said.
It has driven China's economy, and the huge inertia has also determined that China's economy will enter a long cycle of asset shortage, and all our predictions that are far ahead will press the pause button.