Sudden benefit! The securities sector rose sharply, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded, focusing on tomorrow's blockbuster events

It's so risky, A-shares almost became a little green in the red of this global stock market. Last night, Fed officials released the dove again, the dollar index retreated, the US stock NASDAQ rose 1.2%, the European stock market rose, and today's Asia-Pacific stock market also opened wide, but A shares opened high and dived, if not the end of the day pulled almost closed green, then it is really faceless.

Before the holiday, our analysis of the capital structure and foreign capital of A-shares has gradually become the consensus of the market, that is, the inability of A-shares to rise now is not due to fundamentals, but to the capital and liquidity. We know that no matter what kind of logic is blowing the sky, there must be incremental funds to rise, the incremental market is a bull market, the stock market is a rotation and game, and the reduction market is a bear market.

Now A-shares are difficult to maintain even the stock market, first of all, foreign capital is sold without moving, and 150 billion has been sold since the beginning of August; Then the public and private placements of domestic capital experienced a three-year structural bear market, and the net value was not a few, new funds could not be issued, existing funds have been redeemed, and the capital surface is extremely fragile. The heavy stocks of foreign capital and the fund overlapped, and the foreign capital smashed the market leading to a further decline in the net value of the public offering, holders broke the defense to accelerate the redemption, the fund manager was forced to sell, the heavy stocks of the fund fell further, and a negative spiral was formed

Moreover, the sale of foreign capital indirectly suppresses the market's long power, and long-party buying will be smashed by foreign capital, who dares to dig the bottom. This leads to a lack of left-hand funds in the market, most of which are waiting for right-hand signals. Therefore, we have been emphasizing the importance of foreign capital before the holiday, and it is best for the national team to enter the market to block the hole of foreign capital and make the market liquidity circulate positively, but last week Huijin increased its holdings in the four major banks, and foreign capital smashed the market is consumption, new energy and other weighted stocks, which cannot play a hedging role.

We have analyzed a lot of foreign capital problems before, so let's stop here. Looking at today's market, last night the Fed Harker said that unless there is a turn in economic data, the Fed should keep interest rates stable; It is likely that the Fed has completed the process of raising interest rates. The market basically priced in no interest rate hike in November, if the Fed does not raise interest rates in November, it may or may not raise interest rates in December, because the lagging effect of interest rate hikes will be more obvious over time, and the more obvious the signal of cooling the US economy will be, and it may become "end the rate hike" after an important data release.

Due to the Fed's dovish release and the disclosure of earnings reports, the US stock Nasdaq rose 1.2% last night, and the Asia-Pacific stock market is also generally higher today. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.32%, the ChiNext Index was up 0.26%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index was up 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index was up 0.71%. The turnover of the two cities shrank sharply to 0.73 trillion, and northbound funds sold a net of 3.058 billion, selling for three consecutive days this week.

In terms of industries, non-bank finance, textiles and clothing, household appliances, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and other industries led the rise, and automobiles, real estate, medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals and other industries led the decline.

As I have summarized with you before, A-shares after the holiday still continue the market style before the holiday, that is, institutions lose pricing power, floating capital dominates the market, and active funds such as mobile capital are grouped in the two main lines of Huawei line and diet pills. The most suitable environment for theme speculation is a volatile market, and once market volatility is amplified, theme stocks tend to ebb and flow. This is also well understood, the upward fluctuation of the stock market is an exponential rebound market, the funds will cut to the over-falling weight stocks, and the theme makes up for the decline; The downward fluctuation of the stock market is to accelerate the killing, market sentiment will be severely setback, and the theme speculation will naturally cool down.

In the past two days, due to the acceleration of weighted stocks, the index has shown signs of unstable, speculation funds will definitely retreat in stages, and the two main lines of Huawei line and diet pills are also pulling back. In Huawei's line, Huawei mobile phones and Huawei cars are mainly adjusted, and Huawei's computing power (Kunpeng + Ascend) is stimulated by the favorable relay rise.

However, according to CaiLian News Agency, Huawei's mobile phone sales have ushered in rapid growth, with year-on-year growth rates of 91%, 46%, 83% and 95% in the past four weeks (W37-W40) respectively. Huawei's sales share of mobile phones also increased from about 10% before the release of the Mate60 series to 19.4% of the W40 (October 2-October 8), ranking first in the domestic market.

Consumer electronics and diet drugs have experienced a long period of killing, the chip structure is better, and the logic of superimposed on the reversal of difficulties, it is expected that the market will continue, and how much it can rise depends on the subsequent market environment, such as whether market sentiment can be significantly boosted, and whether incremental funds can enter the market.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently