The year of oseltamivir dependence: a life-saving drug for young people, a miracle drug for corporate stock prices to rise

Produced by Phoenix.com's "Eye of the Storm".

Text: Tong Yuan, Editor: Wenhua

Breaking news complaint email: [email protected]

More and more people, after being knocked down by the flu one after another in the cold winter of this year, gradually realized a problem: after a year of collective fever of the new crown, I didn't expect it to be so difficult.

First of all, since February, many people have been frightened by the controversy over the "two yangs" and "three yangs" of the new coronavirus, worried about the arrival of a new wave of infections, and have hoarded a large number of drugs for the treatment of influenza, among which oseltamivir, which can treat both influenza A and influenza B, has been sold out, and has been out of stock in some local pharmacies and e-commerce platforms.

The persistent fever peak soon recurred after half a year of subsidence. The outbreak of mycoplasma pneumonia in September once crowded the pediatric outpatient clinic, and the scene of the long queue for registration in the children's hospital has been on the hot search several times.

In addition to the fear of being dominated by high fever, chills, and fatigue in turns, people did not expect that this was not over, but only the beginning. In just two months, members of the epidemic pathogen infection family have appeared one after another, with influenza, syncytial virus, and adenovirus taking the lead, surpassing mycoplasma, and ranking among the top three recent respiratory infection cases in Beijing. It's no wonder that some people lamented that the flu that has not come in the past three years seems to have been summoned by the dragon and came back collectively.

In the past month, the average daily search popularity of "flu" in the Baidu index has increased by 177 times year-on-year, and the daily average value of flu-related information index has soared by 482 times year-on-year, and it is 2,037 times higher than that of the previous month.

Ostamivir, a commonly used anti-influenza drug, is also like ibuprofen in the tide of new crown infection, which was sold out, and hospitals were even out of stock for a time. Even if medicine is available in pharmacies, the price has risen significantly. For the same drug, some pharmacies sell 3 times more than hospitals. In addition to oseltamivir, the Internet celebrity drug mabaloxavir is increasingly appearing in people's chats, and only two pills are needed for a course of treatment, and the fever is cured immediately after eating. However, this drug has set a threshold from the beginning: the average price is more than 200 yuan per box, which is equivalent to more than 100 yuan for a pill, which discourages many people, and also causes this drug to not be as widely spread and known to more people as oseltamivir.

Either way, it has become a life-saving medicine for many people who have suffered from the flu.

01 Escaped the new crown, but not the flu

Entering November, Jialiu has become a high-frequency hot word. The flu is no longer "just for children", and more and more adults are joining the wave of infections. Someone posted on Moments and escaped the new crown, but not the flu.

Recurrent high fever, cough, blade throat, bone pain... All are familiar symptoms. People even compare whether it is the pain of the new crown or the flu, and many people feel that they are not so uncomfortable when they get the new crown.

Some people also said that they carried the new crown, but they couldn't carry the first flu, and they were so painful that they had to go to the hospital for infusion.

Some people even had three days of continuous infusion in the hospital, and as soon as the needle was removed, the fever relapsed, which was devastating.

Hospitals are also overcrowded. Some hospitals have high numbers of patients in respiratory infections, pediatrics, and emergency departments. Videos circulated online show that beds in children's hospitals in many places are extremely tight, with some corridors full of extra beds and some children lying on the floor, while some parents have come up with a new trick to bring campers and tents to the hospital and turn them into "mobile beds" in the corridors for their children to lie down and rest. If the infusion rack is not enough, bring your own drying rack instead.

On November 22, some parents posted a registration list showing that at 6 o'clock in the morning, Jinan Children's Hospital had been listed at No. 1659. After finally controlling the child's temperature at 37 degrees, his body temperature soared to 40 degrees. Someone commented at the bottom: I can't register at all, and the hospital phone can't get through.

The ravages of the virus have turned hospitals into "virus caves", and many people have begun to realize that if they have symptoms, they can take their own medicine at home, which can not only avoid the pain of queuing for medical treatment, but also avoid cross-infection. Some children have a fever of 40 degrees and can't cool down after taking medicine, and pharmacies in many places in the north can no longer buy detection reagents, and some parents can only "practice medical judgment" by themselves, compare mycoplasma and flu, common cold symptoms, and judge the type of infection of their children.

Because the effect of taking it within 48 hours of the onset of the disease is most obvious, the child who has been having a high fever immediately becomes vigorous, his appetite is improved, and the fever has subsided. The parent kept lamenting afterwards that oseltamivir had saved the child and the whole family.

02 The in-demand "life-saving medicine"

In February and November this year, two outbreaks of influenza caused oseltamivir to rush to the hot search many times.

However, unlike the crazy "hoarding" in February, the virus outbreak since October this year, in the face of mycoplasma, syncytial virus, adenovirus and other viruses infection and cross-mixed infection, although many people have been recruited, it is difficult to determine the type of infectious agent, and the drugs taken for various viral infections are very different, so this time the flu drug, oseltamivir has not yet appeared large-scale hoarding.

Phoenix.com's "Eye of the Storm" visited a number of pharmacies and searched on the e-commerce platform and found that although there was no shortage of ibuprofen in related flu drugs such as the new crown climax, the price of spot oseltamivir has been rising, and the pricing of each pharmacy is different. Taking Shanghai as an example, the takeaway platform shows that many pharmacies show that the price of oseltamivir granules that can be delivered immediately exceeds 100 yuan, and the price of oseltamivir capsules is as high as 339 yuan. In contrast, the price of oseltamivir granules delivered the next day by mail is mostly about 60 yuan.

For the same manufacturer and the same dose of oseltamivir, the hospital price is only about 20 yuan. The price difference also makes it difficult for some parents to accept.

The number of "patients" and posts on social media shows no signs of abating, and hospitals are overcrowded, although many experts say the condition has not yet peaked. As a result, oseltamivir is in short supply.

Unlike the fever reducers that are widely available on the market, there are not many options for specific medicines for influenza. Oseltamivir is still the most mainstream domestic anti-influenza drug. At present, there are three dosage forms of oseltamivir on the market, namely oseltamivir phosphate granules, capsules and dry suspensions, and the first two dosage forms are mostly sold in the market.

As a group of children with a high incidence of influenza, the most important drug for influenza at present is oseltamivir granules (trade name: Kewei granules), and this drug is only produced by East Sunshine Pharmaceutical, which is also the exclusive dosage form product of the company. East Sunshine Pharmaceutical is also the company with the largest number of oseltamivir dosage form products, accounting for nearly 90% of the market share of oseltamivir drugs in China, and once recorded a revenue of 6.224 billion yuan in 2019. It can be said that oseltamivir once propped up the entire East Sunshine Medicine.

However, because the epidemic trend has been suppressed during the pandemic, few people have been concerned about influenza in the past three years. It is precisely because of this that East Sunshine Pharmaceutical's sales performance has suffered a serious "Waterloo", with a revenue of only 914 million yuan in 2021, which is not even one-sixth of the latter compared with 2019.

According to the financial report of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical, in 2019, oseltamivir contributed 5.938 billion yuan in sales, in 2020, the total revenue of oseltamivir fell off a cliff to 2.071 billion yuan, and in 2021, it fell to 559 million yuan.

However, the big year of the flu outbreak in 2023 has saved East Sunshine Medicine. According to the latest interim report of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical, as of June 30 this year, the turnover was 3.209 billion yuan, an increase of 148.12% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.029 billion yuan, an increase of 3238.9% year-on-year. Compared to the previous year, this performance returned to the pre-pandemic period, i.e. in the first half of 2019.

On November 27, the highest share price of East Sunshine Pharmaceutical reached HK$10.28, which was the first time since January 25, 2021 that it returned to HK$10. The share price fell in the following days, but the closing price of HK$9.38 as of December 1 was still well above last year's average share price.

03 Explosive track

The sudden sweep of the first stream has made many companies smell the opportunity to make money. The track for oseltamivir has become increasingly crowded.

In recent years, many pharmaceutical companies have joined the ranks of oseltamivir research. In 2021 and 2022, Oseltamivir capsules from Borui Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Pharmaceutical, Nuotai Biotech, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical and other companies were approved.

In addition, data from the website of the State Food and Drug Administration shows that 30 domestic oseltamivir drugs have obtained production batch numbers. Among them, 21 were oseltamivir capsules, 2 were oseltamivir granules, 6 were oseltamivir dry suspensions, and 1 was oseltamivir APIs.

In addition to the layout of anti-influenza drugs, many companies have seen stock price changes in the capital market because of the hot speculation of the concept of influenza in the market.

Teyi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of Chinese patent medicines, chemical preparations and chemical raw materials. Its main drugs are cough tablets, cold spirit granules, aluminum magnesium carbonate chewable tablets, montmorillonite powder, azithromycin tablets, Pudilan anti-inflammatory tablets, pediatric cough syrup, etc., with a rich category, especially for mycoplasma pneumonia and influenza-related symptoms, its drugs cover almost all categories of cough, antipyretic, antibiotics, antiviral drugs, digestive system, etc. Affected by the tide of infection, Teyi Pharmaceutical ushered in a sharp rise in stock prices.

However, on the morning of November 28, after the stock price continued to rise for a few days, Teyi Pharmaceutical suddenly crashed and stopped, and related traditional Chinese medicine concept stocks such as Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Huluwa also fell on the same day. However, Teyi Pharmaceutical's stock price soon resumed its rise and ushered in the daily limit on the third day. As of press time, Teyi Pharmaceutical has not responded to the abnormal fluctuations in the stock price, nor has it disclosed any movements that may affect the stock price.

At present, Teyi Pharmaceutical's drugs are relatively routine, and the new drugs launched in recent years are limited. According to the financial report, in recent years, the R&D expenses of Teyi Pharmaceutical have accounted for less than 5%, and there is even a trend of gradual reduction. As competition in the pharmaceutical industry continues to intensify, it is urgent to develop new drugs in order to continue to develop.

Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical, which has a daily limit on the same day as Teyi Pharmaceutical, is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of drug injection APIs, and its main products are suitable for bronchitis, hepatitis, Alzheimer's disease and anti-tumor, etc., all of which are antibiotic anti-inflammatory injections. Drugs for the flu are not their main product. However, under the flu wave, the public's attention to health has increased, and Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical has also increased the limit twice in November.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, a number of shareholders of Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical have disclosed their shareholding reduction plans, including its chairman Wang Chengdong and his son, who plan to reduce their holdings by 0.2%. Looking at the financial report, shareholders are scrambling to reduce their holdings or related to the unsatisfactory operating performance of Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical, which has fallen by about 70% since 2015. In addition, between 2016 and 2022, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was negative all year round. The last dividend was in 2014.

Influenza vaccine stocks are also in high demand. According to the flush data, from October to press time, Hualan Biotechnology and Watson Biotechnology in the flu vaccine stocks rose 10.09% and 5.27% respectively, while Shuoshi Biotech, Kehua Biotech and Daan Gene in the influenza detection sector rose by 9.59%, 3% and 7.16% respectively.

The popularity of circulating concept stocks in capital also encourages the influx of capital. On November 28, 2023, Jointown said on the interactive platform that in 2023, it will maintain in-depth strategic cooperation with East Sunshine Pharmaceutical (HK01558), and the sales of three drugs with separate specifications "Oseltamivir Phosphate (Kewei)" as the exclusive general agent will continue to grow in OTC channels. Two days later, on December 1, Jointown added a new "flu" message.

Influenza is becoming a "good medicine" for pharmaceutical companies and related companies to maintain growth, and many companies are still increasing their investment when the infection climax has not yet reached an inflection point.

It has been exactly one year since the peak of the new crown infection last year. In the shadow of high fever and the shortage of medicines, society has begun to gradually regain and accumulate experience in improving immunity, and the flu vaccine that has been abandoned for several years has once again become a real means to suppress the outbreak of influenza. Influenza is not a new virus, oseltamivir should not become a life-saving drug in people's collective memory, people's war with the virus should end as soon as possible, and people's lives should return to normal as soon as possible.