Xincheng Huayuan on-site sales control map.
In the first quarter, Shenzhen's property market came to a beautiful end!
The transaction data of Shenzhen's property market in March once again excited the market. According to the statistics of the Shenzhen Housing Association, in March 2024, the number of second-hand houses in Shenzhen will exceed 5,000 units again after three years, and 5,196 second-hand houses in the city will be recorded, an increase of 116.6% month-on-month, and it has risen above the standard of 5,000 sets of industry "prosperity and withering line".
"Shenzhen's purchase restriction policy has been effective and has become the main force of this round of Xiaoyangchun. According to the data monitoring of the Zhuge Data Research Center, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the key 14 cities in March fell year-on-year, but from the cumulative year-on-year perspective, Shenzhen is the only city with a year-on-year increase in "Xiaoyangchun" transactions this year.
Shenzhen's new homes also doubled their transaction volume in March compared to the previous month. In March 2024, 2,245 new homes were transacted in Shenzhen, an increase of 176.8% month-on-month. On the last weekend of March, six new projects were opened in Shenzhen, generating sales of about 8 billion yuan.
Signed overnight on weekends, and the hot-selling plates were ...... one after another The transaction volume of second-hand houses and new houses has risen, and the arrival of "Xiaoyangchun" in Shenzhen's property market is more genuine. However, from the perspective of the industry, the trend in the second quarter is still uncertain, especially whether the favorable policies can continue to bring momentum to the trading volume.
Second-hand market
The online sign breaks through the "boom and wither line"
Some intermediaries said that all employees billed
The past March was a month in which Shenzhen's second-hand property market continued to refresh historical records and hit new highs.
In the first week after the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, the weekly online signing volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen started with a high range of 951 sets, and then the number of online signatures in a single week exceeded 1,000 for 4 consecutive weeks, and continued to rise, constantly refreshing the new weekly high since 2022.
The single-week transaction data of Shenzhen Leyoujia stores has also risen, achieving 5 consecutive increases, constantly refreshing the highest single-week transaction value since March 2021, and it is expected that the actual transaction volume of intermediary stores in the city will exceed 6,000 units in March.
In terms of transfer, 3,840 second-hand residential units were transferred in the city in March, an increase of 115% from February and 11% from January. Leyoujia Research Center believes that the online signing in March will be reflected in the transfer data in April and May, and it is expected that the transfer volume of second-hand houses in April will still have a good performance.
The online signature is more timely to reflect the real market trend before the transfer. According to the Shenzhen Housing Association, in March, the number of second-hand housing online signatures (i.e., contracts recorded) in Shenzhen reached 5,196, up 117% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. This is also the first time in 3 years, the monthly online signature volume has exceeded 5,000 sets again, and the last time was 5,272 sets in February 2021.
In Shenzhen's property market, the "5,000 sets of boom and bust line" is an informal indicator, which is usually used by the industry to roughly judge whether the real estate market is in a prosperous state. To put it simply, if the real estate market has more than 5,000 units in a certain period of time (such as a month), then it is generally considered that the property market in the area is in a relatively prosperous state, which means that the second-hand property market in Shenzhen in March has met the indicators of entering the growth period.
The heat of the market is more reflective of the changes in the data. On the first day of the end of March, Xiao Xie, a Luohu intermediary, posted his results last month on the circle of friends: "3 orders were opened in a single month, and all members of the team had bills. Throughout the year, many intermediary stores in Shenzhen, including Xiao Xie's store, have experienced a month of no one billing.
"There are significantly more clients consulting this month. During the visit, a real estate agent told the reporter of the Bay Finance Society that some customers obviously came to ask the price in the past, but now many customers are obviously buying houses with sincerity, on the one hand, because of the favorable policy stimulus, and on the other hand, they are afraid of waiting to miss the current price.
The price is down
Listings are still at a high level
The price reduction may continue
"It can be seen that the market in March has indeed been boosted by the previous favorable policies, but it is also related to the fact that most of the current owners have taken the initiative to make price concessions, and have contributed to the increase in transaction volume through the method of 'exchanging price for volume'. The Shenzhen Housing Association pointed out that Shenzhen's second-hand housing market in March had good results, but from the actual market visit and feedback from some member institutions of the association, it was learned that the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in March was lower than the reference price, and there was a significant increase compared with March last year.
This means that buyers in the current market are still most concerned about the "bamboo shoots" with lower prices, and this type of housing is also the first to be removed in this round of property market recovery.
The Leyoujia Research Center counted the transaction data of second-hand houses in March, showing that 81.4% of the transaction prices were lower than the reference price, which has continued to rise in the past one year, and the transaction volume has risen, but the house prices still maintain a slight downward trend, and the listing price of second-hand houses at the end of March was 70,600 yuan/㎡, down 1.1% month-on-month, and the cumulative decline in the past 12 months has reached 8%.
"I don't dare to use too high leverage, and I have anxiety about unemployment. When talking about the recent plan to buy a house, the buyer Xiaoma said that in the first two years, he only looked at whether the down payment could be reached, because the expected upward trend in house prices would cover the interest cost, and now the house is looking at the pressure of mortgage expenses, and it is better to have a surplus in the family account after buying a house, and will not consider buying a house with six wallets.
Buyers are beginning to pay attention to low-priced listings, and the phenomenon of sellers "exchanging price for volume" is also increasing. Among the 84 districts monitored by Shenzhen Central Plains, a total of 46 districts saw a decline in listing prices in March, accounting for 54.8%, a decrease from the previous month. Among them, the area with the highest decrease in listing price was the Nanshan-Manshuwan area, with a listing price of 161,000 yuan/㎡, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%.
For the future price trend, Leyoujia Research Center believes that although "Xiaoyangchun" has arrived, the price of housing continues to decline, indicating that the owner's mentality is more rational and there is no "anti-price tide". It is expected that the listing price will enter the 6 prefix in April.
"The current policy environment is relaxed, the National Standing Committee proposes to effectively stimulate potential demand, the restrictive policies in hot cities are loosened, and the follow-up real estate policies will be further optimized. Zhuge Housing Data Research Center pointed out that it is expected that the scale of transactions in April will continue to be released steadily, but the current number of second-hand housing listings is still at a high level, the pressure of housing competition is high, and the price reduction of second-hand housing will continue.
New homes are selling well
A number of projects have started to select houses
Some were selected until the early morning of the next day
The heat of Shenzhen's property market has also been transmitted to new houses.
According to the data of the Shenzhen Real Estate Association, in March 2024, a total of 2,816 new houses were traded in Shenzhen, an increase of 184.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 61.8%, of which 2,245 new homes were sold, an increase of 176.8% month-on-month.
On the last weekend of March, 6 projects in Shenzhen were selected. According to public information, four of the projects alone have generated sales of about 8 billion yuan.
On March 30th, Shenzhen Railway Qianhai Times Zun Mansion, Wanfeng Coastal City Hanfu Phase 2, Zhongzhou Bay Yinghai II and Guangming Greentown Guiyu Lanting selected houses. According to the public information of the project, Shenzhen Railway Qianhai Times Zunfu launched 344 residences, with a total of 509 batches of customers registered before the opening, and sold 282 suites on the opening day, with a sales amount of about 82% and a sales amount of 2.739 billion yuan; Baoan Wanfeng Coastal City Hanfu Phase 2 launched 129 residences, selling about 90 suites on the opening day, with a rough estimate of about 600 million yuan; Futian Zhongzhou Bay Yinghai II launched 560 residences, which sold about 2.71 billion yuan on the opening day, about 50% of the sales.
On March 31, Jinzhongyun Shanhai in Chiwan, Shekou and Bowen Yayuan in Longgang were opened, among them, Jinzhongyun Shanhai Mansion sold about 1.93 billion yuan on the opening day.
It is worth mentioning that on March 30, Shenzhen Saleable Talent Housing Xincheng Huayuan (Phase III) concentrated on arranging 1,693 households to select houses, and the final selection ended in the early morning of the next day, and the popularity of the housing selection site exceeded expectations. According to the on-site sales control map sent by netizens, the final removal rate of 495 sets of conventional houses is 99.2%, and it is a few days old.
Jiang Xianliang, managing director of Midland Realty Shenzhen, believes that 6 commercial residential projects have been opened, and each project has achieved good results.
However, on the other hand, developers are actively entering the market, and with the increase in supply, it has also contributed to the extension of the new housing de-conversion cycle.
According to data from the Leyoujia Research Center, the pre-sale of new first-hand residential units reached 9,456 units in March, up 392% month-on-month, and the pre-sale area was 882,000 square meters, up 352% month-on-month. The supply has increased significantly, and the pressure to decentralize has also increased. As of March 31, Shenzhen's first-hand residential inventory area was 5.39 million square meters, and the decommissioning period reached 25 months.
Future Trends
Market confidence and expectations are restored
It is crucial for the market to recover
The market generally believes that the recovery trend of Shenzhen's property market in March is related to the frequent introduction of favorable policies. In the last week of March, the buyer and seller of the same institution in Shenzhen did not need to wait for another five days to sign a "handshake" after the transaction, which is believed to speed up the pace of second-hand housing transactions......
From the analysis of policy trends, the Shenzhen Housing Association believes that in the current process of market bottoming and repair, there is still uncertainty in the market. Therefore, timely policy support is particularly critical to the restoration of market confidence and expectations.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG, stressed that the recovery of the property market is closely related to the fundamentals of macroeconomic operation, and needs to be supported by macroeconomic recovery. At the same time, he pointed out that the property market is a "buy up, not buy down" market, and the restoration of market expectations and confidence is crucial to the recovery of the market.
As for whether it is a good time to buy a house, Bai Wenxi believes that in the case of mortgage interest rate cuts and various places competing to stimulate the property market, the people with rigid needs and improved needs have indeed ushered in a more suitable window period. However, he also pointed out that it is unlikely that he wants to wait for a sharp adjustment in housing prices before making a move, because the policy level and related industries do not want to see the property market plummet.
The reporter of the Bay Finance Society noticed that according to the statistics of the Shenzhen Central Plains Research Center, there are still 9 real estate projects in Shenzhen that are planned to enter the market in April. Among them, Longhua has 3 projects, Guangming has 2 projects, and Luohu, Baoan, Longgang and Yantian have 1 project each.