The fleets of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines assembled in the South China Sea, and the outside world suddenly discovered that the Chinese Navy aircraft carrier Shandong, which had previously docked at a military port in southern China, had left its berth and was missing.
[There are no warships moored in a military port in southern China]
According to overseas open source platforms, the latest pictures taken by Western commercial satellites show that on April 1, the Chinese Navy dock, which was still docked with the Shandong ship and some escort ships, no longer has any ships docked, and all ships have left the port.
Considering that the Chinese Navy often organizes aircraft carrier formations to go to sea for training in April and May, it is very likely that the departure of the Shandong ship formation this time is also to carry out training missions, familiarize themselves with the sea areas of possible combat missions in the future, temper the combat capability of the troops, and possibly cooperate with other units and diplomatic departments to cope with changes in the situation in the western Pacific.
At present, there are two most likely training positions for the Shandong ship.
The first is the waters of the South China Sea, which are now widely speculated. The main reason for this judgment is that in recent months, there have been a series of new changes in the situation in the South China Sea.
[In the satellite image taken on April 1, the Shandong ship and a number of escort ships can also be seen]
Since March, the Philippines has repeatedly sent ships to provoke Ren'ai Jiao, Tie Line Jiao, LAL Reef and other places, and Chinese and Philippine maritime forces have frequently engaged in maritime confrontations. The United States, Japan and other countries also rushed to step down and further support the Philippines in an attempt to stir up the situation in the South China Sea.
At a time when the outside world discovered that the Shandong warship had left Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines were conducting a four-party joint combat exercise in the waters northeast of the Nansha Islands. The Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has organized naval and air forces to conduct joint combat patrols in response to the actions of the four countries.
At the same time, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is about to travel to Washington for a meeting with the leaders of the United States and Japan. According to U.S. officials, the South China Sea issue is the focus of the trilateral talks, during which Biden will emphasize the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and warn China not to continue its operations in the South China Sea.
[The United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines are organizing joint exercises in the South China Sea]
After the meeting, the United States and the Philippines will hold a series of military cooperation activities, including the annual "shoulder to shoulder" military exercise. The Japanese side is also likely to be involved, and the Self-Defense Forces are already coordinating with the U.S. and Philippine militaries to officially participate in the "shoulder to shoulder" military exercise.
It is foreseeable that in the coming period, the United States and the Philippines and other congresses will continue to provoke in the South China Sea and may take more aggressive actions. Now allowing the Shandong warship formation to go south to the waters of the Nansha Islands and openly conduct exercises and training is enough to deter the United States, the Philippines and other countries, and let Marcos Jr. and others reconsider whether they want to continue to provoke in the South China Sea.
In addition, if the Shandong ship goes south to the Nansha Islands now, it will also be very embarrassing for the US side.
In March, the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group headed south to Singapore via the South China Sea, docked for a few days, and then headed north to return to the Philippine Sea.
[The USS Roosevelt had been active in the South China Sea for about 1 month]
Before the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines military exercises, the US military had just withdrawn this aircraft carrier battle group from the South China Sea, and with the departure of the Shandong ship, the US military probably had to adjust the deployment position of the "Roosevelt" and hurriedly make its aircraft carrier turn around and return to the South China Sea.
Of course, the South China Sea is not the only possible training area for the Shandong ship at present, and the aircraft carrier may also pass through the Bass Strait and enter the western Pacific waters for training. In early April last year, the Shandong warship went out to the western Pacific Ocean for an ocean-going training.
After entering the western Pacific, the Shandong can conduct exercises in the Philippine Sea northeast of Luzon Island in the Philippines to deter the Philippines and practice regional denial/anti-access operations in the airspace over the South China Sea north of Taiwan Island with shore-based air forces.
However, considering that the situation in the Taiwan Strait has also been tense in the past two months, the more likely action of the Shandong warship formation is to go north to the waters east of Taiwan Island and conduct exercises around Taiwan Island together with the naval and air forces of the Eastern Theater to deter "Taiwan independence" forces on the island. After completing the exercise in the waters east of the island of Taiwan, it sailed eastward and approached Guam, a key defense node of the US military in the second island chain. A scene similar to last year's confrontation between the Chinese and US aircraft carrier battle groups at sea is very likely to be staged again.
[The Shandong is the only aircraft carrier in the deployment stage of the Chinese Navy at the current stage]
It can be seen that as the only aircraft carrier in the official deployment state of the Chinese Navy, the Shandong plays a very key role in the process of the PLA responding to changes in the regional situation and safeguarding national security.
Of course, while seeing the Shandong warship play a role, we must also realize that although with the cooperation of the Shandong warship formation, land-based air force, shore-based missile force, and other branches of the armed forces, the PLA has sufficient capabilities to deal with any security threat in the Pacific direction. However, the size of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier fleet is still slightly insufficient, and now it can only allow the Shandong to have one aircraft carrier, and at the same time deal with possible changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
The good news is that the Liaoning, which has just been transformed from a training ship to a combat ship, has completed the upgrading and transformation work in the shipyard and went to sea for relevant tests. It is believed that in the near future, the Chinese Navy will be able to return to the state of having one aircraft carrier in the north and the south on standby to attack.
China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has now entered the final stage of preparation before sea trials, and the deck repainting and marking work should have been completed. In the next few years, the Chinese Navy will enter the era of three aircraft carriers, and the deployment of aircraft carriers will be more flexible.
[The Fujian ship is preparing for going to sea]
In addition, the combat capability of other branches of the PLA has also been continuously enhanced along with the deepening of military reform.
We can now say that China has achieved certain results in steadily advancing preparations for military struggle over the years, and that it is becoming more difficult for Washington to stir up the regional situation by taking advantage of the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait issues. When all branches of the PLA are fully prepared, China will be able to solve the relevant problems once and for all and completely break the "first island chain" blockade system of the US military.