The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) abruptly announced that it would withdraw its last divisional combat unit deployed in Gaza and that only one brigade-sized unit would remain in central Gaza to maintain a minimum military presence.
Israel's defense minister said the move was in preparation for a new round of military action, but Israel's withdrawal was seen as a sign that Tel Aviv was no longer able to sustain the conflict.
[Israeli troops previously deployed in Gaza]
Recently, a number of Israeli media confirmed that the Israeli Ministry of Defense issued an order to withdraw troops stationed in Gaza. At present, the 98th Commando Division, the last divisional unit to be deployed in Gaza, has left Gaza overnight, leaving only the 933rd Nahar Infantry Brigade as a rear.
It's hard not to draw attention to this unusual sign, which was largely unknown before the withdrawal order was issued. This means that either the Tel Aviv leadership implemented strict secrecy on this decision, or the entire decision to withdraw troops was made in a hasty environment.
[Israel's wartime cabinet with very different hearts]
Combined with the factions within Tel Aviv, there were a lot of contradictions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant and Wartime Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz throughout Israel's wartime cabinet. Judging from the fact that the latter two often disclose unfavorable inside information about Netanyahu in public in exchange for outside support, the possibility of the former "strict secrecy" is obviously not as high as that of the latter, and this also highlights to a certain extent the bad situation facing Israel on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
Because although Israeli Defense Minister Gallant said that the withdrawal does not represent a truce, but is preparing for military action against Rafah and ceasefire negotiations. However, judging from the current strategic situation, Israel's withdrawal will inevitably lead to the following problems.
The first is that all the hostages captured by Hamas in the Al-Aqsa flood operation have not been ransomed, and Israel officially says that there are about 100 people left. One of the reasons for the daily protests in Israel against Netanyahu's weakness on the Israeli-Palestinian issue is Netanyahu's reluctance to escalate the conflict over the release of the hostages.
[Israelis march over the release of hostages]
Second, Israel will choose to send ground troops into Gaza to carry out military operations, that is, it wants to eliminate the armed forces of Hamas as much as possible and "demilitarize" Gaza.
However, both the video footage of the engagement disclosed by Hamas and the relevant information collected by the foreign media show that Hamas has effectively preserved its vital forces under the attack of the Israeli army. This is evidenced by the fact that in January this year, after Israel unilaterally declared that the "high-intensity" fighting in northern Gaza was over and withdrew part of its troops, it took only two weeks for Hamas to rebuild a temporary office there, send police to maintain order, and pay salaries to surviving government employees such as teachers and traffic police.
It can be said that the Israeli army's operations in northern Gaza have not achieved their planned objectives at all. Now that Israeli forces have chosen to withdraw further from their forces in southern Gaza, Hamas's return is only a matter of time.
[Israeli soldiers in Gaza]
Finally, and most importantly, Israel is already mired in ultra-nationalism over the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The withdrawal of Israeli troops can be seen as a failure of Israel's military operation in Gaza, at worst, and at a lesser extent, a manifestation of the poor performance of the Israeli army. Either view, it will set off a wave of public opinion in Israel, and these factors will be detrimental to Netanyahu's political life and to the entire Tel Aviv leadership.
In this case, the Tel Aviv leadership will also choose to withdraw its troops, indicating that if it does not withdraw its troops, or if it continues to fight, it will cause more problems.
A case in point is the U.S. stance on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, where many people like to bind the U.S. to Israel tightly. But in fact, the alliance between the two countries, although special, is not to the point of being indestructible.
In particular, after the Israeli air raid on the World Central Kitchen in Gaza, which resulted in the death of seven staff members from the United States, Canada, Australia, and other countries, a huge wave of condemnation against Israel has been set off within the societies of Western countries, and a large number of politicians in Western countries have had to give up their stance of supporting Israel.
[The World Central Kitchen Convoy Hit by Israeli Air Raids]
The U.S. stance has also wavered, with CNN even reporting that U.S. President Joe Biden bluntly said in a phone call with Netanyahu about the attack that if the civilian living conditions in Gaza are not improved, then he (Biden) will reconsider the strength of U.S. support for Israel in the conflict.
In addition to the wavering support of the United States, Israel's domestic economy has also languished under the influence of more than half a year of conflict. Data show that Israel's economy fell by 19.4% year-on-year in 4Q23, and direct foreign investment fell by 60%.
This kind of economic data is fatal for a developed country like Israel, which is dominated by the tertiary industry, and if this situation continues, then the economic figures for the first quarter of '24 will not be much better, and Israel will fall into an even more serious wartime economic crisis.
[A large number of Israeli shops closed due to the conflict]
It is not difficult to see that Israel at this stage no longer has the economic capacity to sustain this conflict. And this also means that the so-called withdrawal of troops is "in preparation for military action against Rafah" is likely to be a high-sounding justification for the Tel Aviv leadership to give itself a substantial ceasefire.
Of course, it is one thing for Israel to want to end this conflict, and it is another for other forces to accept it. The six-month-long conflict has added tens of thousands of names and animosities to the blood debt of the Palestinians and Israelis, and the bombing of southern Lebanon and the Iranian embassy in Syria has increased the risk of Allah and Iran intervening in the situation.
A series of factors have made Israel lose the ability to end this conflict at this stage, and it is difficult to say what kind of situation awaits Israel after following the tide.