China has made a crucial move, and once it makes a security commitment, it will accelerate the dismantling of the US layout in the Middle East.
The President of the United Arab Emirates visited China, and China and the United Arab Emirates issued the latest joint statement. The two sides appreciated the cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense and military affairs, and said that they would further strengthen the exchange of experience in this field and conduct more joint training to enhance the capabilities of the personnel of the military and security agencies of the two countries.
[Domestic J-35 stealth fighter]
Recently, with the conclusion of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan from his visit to China and the latest joint statement issued by China and Argentina, the outside world has also paid more attention to the cooperative relationship between the two countries.
Because in this joint statement, the two sides made it clear that they are willing to exchange military experience in the future to improve the capabilities of the personnel of the military and security agencies of the two friendly countries, as well as to carry out more joint training. This marks a new stage in the cooperation between China and Argentina in the field of defense and military affairs, and in the eyes of the outside world, it may also be a key opportunity for China to further expand its influence in the Middle East.
Why? This has to mention the "Falcon Shield-2023" air force joint training organized by China and the United Arab Emirates in August last year.
As the first joint air force training between China and Argentina, Falcon Shield-2023 not only greatly deepened the cooperation and exchanges between the two militaries at the military level, but also strengthened mutual understanding and mutual trust between the two sides at the strategic level.
[Chinese Navy Nanning Ship Arrives in the United Arab Emirates]
In addition, in February last year, the Chinese Navy sent the 052D Nanning ship to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, to participate in the International Maritime Defense Exhibition, so that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries fully felt the growing naval power of the Chinese Navy. A series of factors have made China an international power that has the ability to compete with the United States in the Middle East in the eyes of the Gulf countries, mainly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. And this change in perception has also begun to affect the diplomatic strategy of the Gulf countries.
To put it simply, although the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have been regarded by the outside world as hardcore allies of the United States in the Middle East for the past few decades.
But for the Gulf countries, this relationship is not as "iron" as the outside world thinks. In the final analysis, the alliance between the two sides is based on the commitment of the United States to ensure the stability of the Gulf states, and when the United States is unable to continue to fulfill its commitments due to a series of factors, the relationship between the two sides will naturally fluctuate and even crack.
[The UAE is also a tourist country]
For the UAE, this factor stems from the conflict of national interests between the United States and the UAE. In fact, unlike many people who believe that the UAE is a country with the oil industry as its main source of economy, the UAE's tertiary industry is actually very developed, accounting for more than 70% of the country's GDP. The tourism industry alone generates 10% of GDP, which makes the UAE today in dire need of a peaceful and stable Middle East.
The problem, however, is that once the Middle East enters a state of long-term peace, the risk of regime change in the Gulf states will be greatly reduced, which will inevitably weaken the legitimacy of the US military presence in the Middle East and affect the alliance between the US and the Gulf states.
[Syrian President Assad Jr. visits the United Arab Emirates]
This is also the reason why when Syrian President Assad Jr. visited the UAE in March 22, the Washington leadership directly warned the UAE in an attempt to prevent the normalization of relations with the government in Damascus. It is not in Americans' interest to put aside disputes and move towards a peaceful Middle East, and the rift in the relationship between the UAE and the United States stems from this fundamental conflict of interests.
In this context, China's lead in promoting a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran undermines U.S. influence in the Middle East and gives the UAE an alternative to the U.S. in finding a defense partner.
The Falcon Shield-2023 joint exercise is likely to be a test conducted by the UAE to better understand the PLA's military strength at this stage, with the aim of seeing if we have the ability to succeed the United States and become a new "security provider" in the Middle East.
[China-led rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran]
Judging from the current decision between China and Argentina to further strengthen the exchange of military experience, it is clear that China's strength will allow the UAE to choose to continue to deepen its cooperative relationship with us. Some gossip even says that the UAE is in talks with China over the import of J-20 fighter jets to counter the US ban on F-35 fighter jets issued by the UAE.
Although this news has not yet been confirmed by any conclusive evidence, considering that China and the United Arab Emirates have successfully signed a contract to export L15 "Falcon" training aircraft to the UAE, and there are other sources that we will export the Y-20B transport aircraft to the UAE in the future. It may be unlikely that the UAE will buy the J-20 from China, but in the foreseeable future, the country that failed to buy the American F-35 will have the opportunity to buy the Chinese J-35.
【China's L15 Trainer】
This will greatly impact the dominance of the United States in the Middle East, and China's international influence will continue to grow and spread with the weapons and equipment we export.
At that time, even if it is difficult for China to replace the United States as a "security guarantor" in the short term, we can continue to weaken the influence of the United States in the name of defense and security exchanges with the Gulf countries and even the entire Middle East region.
This will build a public opinion foundation for China to provide defense services and even security guarantees for countries in the Middle East in the future, and when China can gain a firm foothold in the Middle East, we can also carry out deeper cooperation with a peaceful and stable Middle East region.